January 4, 2019

On the surface, former Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel turned in another typically solid season: he was a workhorse (204 2/3 innings pitched) with low strikeouts (6.73 K/9) and walks (2.55 BB/9) and a respectable ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.31). However, some alarming signals arise after digging deeper into the numbers. Keuchel, known for being an elite ground-ball pitcher, posted his highest average launch angle in Baseball Savant’s historical database and his ground-ball rate (53.7%) was the lowest since his rookie season (2012). Further, his contact rate (81.6%) was its highest since his rookie season and his strikeout rate was its lowest since 2014. The culprit behind all this could be Keuchel’s movement on his go-to sinker, which had its second-lowest vertical movement in his career. These signals, coupled with Keuchel’s age of 31, suggest that he may have more room to fall. Even the best ground-ball pitchers walk a fine line between success and failure based on control and movement. Keuchel’s fantasy value will partially be determined by his landing point (be on the lookout for an update once he signs), but if he continues to decline, he may only be a back-end rotation piece at best in 2019. His consistency may not be a sure thing this season and has less upside than other starters being picked after him, making him a safer value around pick 180-195 overall rather than his 170 early ADP.--Connelly Doan