6 years agoChicago White Sox starting pitcher Carlos Rodon was awesome for the most part in 2018. He returned to baseball in June after shoulder surgery and pitched very well until Mid-September. Unfortunately, things changed in the last few games of the year. His ERA ballooned to 4.18 and the season looked a lot uglier on the surface. Looking to 2019, his outlook is murky. His 2018 ERA was roughly a full run lower than his xFIP and SIERA. His strikeout rate dipped from previous years while his walk rate remained the same. On top of that, he was generating more fly balls than ground balls for the first time in his career. The early season production was unsustainable and probably won't carry over into 2019. Nevertheless, Rodon is still just 26 and more than a year removed from shoulder surgery. His velocity was seemingly unaffected, meaning that the lack of strikeouts could be a pitch feel issue which he may have worked on in the offseason. If there is any indication that his Ks are back in Spring training, he could be a bargain. For now, we have to assume that he will perform along with last year's numbers. With his recurrent health concerns, he may not even play the full season. Expect an ERA in the low-to-mid fours, a 1.30 WHIP and 130-140 strikeouts if he plays a significant chunk of the year.  His ADP of 270 is a fair range to value him.--Kev Mahserejian
Source: FanGraphs