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Caleb Smith 2020 Outlook: Inconsistency Masks Potential
Miami Marlins starting pitcher Caleb Smith got off to a hot start in 2019, registering at least six strikeouts while allowing three runs or fewer in each of his first nine games. An IL stint then took him out of action for a month and while he looked fine intially, posting a 3.48 ERA in July, he couldn't recapture the early magic. Smith only had four quality starts out of his final 16 games and his elite strikeout numbers fell from 30% and up in the first half to below 20% through the second half. When Smith was hit, he was hit especially hard too. He led the NL with 33 home runs allowed and had a 10.9% Barrel rate that was among the worst for starting pitchers. He did experience a small dip in fastball velocity after his return from injury but the velocity on his slider steadily increased as the year went on, only to worse results.
Smith has the talent to dominate on any given night but when he's off, he can wreck things for his team and fantasy teams alike. He is a risk-reward pick at the back end of your rotation if strikeout help is needed but may be more useful as a streamer. He is freely available outside the top 200 picks on draft day if you are looking to chase upside.
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