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Blake Snell 2023 Player Outlook: Great Strikeout Stuff With Midseason Pitch Mix Change
2 years agoSan Diego Padres starter Blake Snell started 2022 as one of the worst pitchers in the league, posting a 5.22 ERA in the first half, but turned it around midseason, finishing with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 32% strikeout rate, and eight wins over 24 starts. He found success when he curbed his changeup usage and threw his fastball more, a pitch with 81st-percentile velocity and 91st-percentile spin. Snell also used a slider and curveball, the former getting whiffs at a 46.4% rate and the latter generating 5.5 inches above average of horizontal movement and producing a 43.1% whiff rate. Altogether, the 30-year-old remained elite in terms of plate discipline numbers, with a 32.8% whiff rate and 30.6% chase rate, and now owns a 31.8% strikeout percentage over the past five campaigns. Snell allows lots of balls in the air, with a 29.2% and 30.5% fly ball rate in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Combined with high strikeout rates, the 2018 Cy Young winner allowed just a .213 average over the last two seasons, so he won't hurt fantasy managers' WHIP despite high walk rates (10.4% during his career). Snell will be a four-category contributor next year with the ability to rack up double-digit wins with the Padres, so his 125 ADP is a steal for fantasy managers.
