January 17, 2019

Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Avisail Garcia comes into the 2019 season off the back of two very different years. In 2017, Garcia hit just 18 home runs but backed that up with an impressive .330 average, something far above what we had seen him produce previously in the major leagues. In contrast, 2018 saw him hit 19 home runs in just 385 plate appearances, but his average dropped all the way down to .236. Those contrasting seasons make it tough to know what Garcia is going to be this season and beyond. Given that his .330 average from 2017 was based on a BABIP far exceeding anything else in his time with the White Sox, it is unlikely we see him produce those heights again. However, his BABIP of .270 last year was the lowest of his major league career, and would, therefore, suggest we see an increase in both his BABIP and batting average in 2019. In terms of the power profile, Garcia had a FB% 7% above his career average and a HR/FB ratio 5% above average. Both of those numbers could indicate a conscious decision to try and clear the fences more, but that could be in part due to Garcia trying to create opportunities in a team which was struggling last season. Now with a team who have often valued trying to edge their way past opponents, we may see a shift back to a more normal profile for Garcia. Whichever way it goes, Garcia makes for a fascinating gamble this season. With an ADP close to 350, Garcia is worth a late-round flier in leagues, in the hope we see him build upon the success he had clearing the fences in 2018, and we get the positive regression in his BABIP and batting average.--Ben Rolfe