6 years agoAlex Wood showed some serious regression in the 2018 season in which he posted a 9-7 record, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 135 strikeouts. He was coming off a stellar 2017 with a 16-3 record and 2.72 ERA (that was aided by a very low BABIP). Alex Wood now gets (has) to call The Great American Ballpark "home". Known as a hitter's park, this is a significant downgrade in venue from Dodger stadium. Although Wood was able to improve his HR numbers in 2018 (0.06 decrease to HR/9 and 2.6% decrease in HR/FB), he'll have to do even more to keep them down in a favorable home run park in Cincinnati. Especially considering he posted the second-lowest ground-ball rate of his career, which meant increased line drive and fly ball rates. He'll also have to counteract the 10.2% increase in hard-contact rate. Wood's K/9 of 8.01 doesn't offer much K upside for fantasy owners. The good news is, despite his regression in 2018, he still managed his best season since 2014. Additionally, his ERA of 3.68 was worse than his FIP of 3.53, indicating that he may have lost a few runs due to below average fielding. Overall, the skillset and some red flags in the 2018 season coupled with the downgrade in home venue shouldn't land Wood high owner's lists of 2019 players to draft. His current ADP of 225 seems like a fair valuation for what Wood gives you, though you may be able to find better upside around this pick.--Zach Alexander