RADIO
Eric Samulski evaluates SPs who have developed new pitches for 2023 for Part Four of his FSWA-award-winning series. Will these starting pitchers be fantasy baseball breakouts?
Welcome to the third season of the FSWA-award-winning series Pitchers with New Pitches (and Should We Care) where we take the simple premise that not every new pitch should be greeted with praise. A new pitch, like a shiny new toy, might be exciting on its own, but it also needs to be a complement to what a pitcher already has.
So instead of just celebrating that some pitchers are throwing new pitches, I watched the pitch in action, checked in on its performance, and looked at the Statcast Spin Direction graphics to see if it might actually make the pitcher any more effective. From there, I will try to give you a simple verdict as to whether or not we should care about this new toy or not.
This is one of my favorite things to write, so I hope that you enjoy it. You can keep track of all of the pitchers I've been tracking and my evaluations here. It's important to note that this is the first time many of these pitchers have thrown these new pitches in a meaningful game, so the overall quality and consistency may get better over time. I've tried to take that into account in my analysis. We should also note (for the purposes of this article) that I will be including pitchers that have reworked or revamped a pitch to make it "new" even if it was technically a pitch they already threw.
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Zack Wheeler - Sweeper
After digging into Wheeler for this article, I honestly have no idea how he has a 4.73 ERA through five starts.
His four-seam has essentially the same exact velocity as last year. He has allowed just one total barrel in five starts. His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is up from 12.7% last year to 15.4% this year. His CSW is up from 28.9% last year to 32.5% this year. The only things I can pinpoint are the .357 BABIP and the 3.38 walks per nine innings, which would be his highest since 2017.
So basically, all of this seems to indicate that we should be buying on Wheeler, but let's look at the new pitch mix for a second.
Essentially, Wheeler has separated his slider into a more cutter-like slider that he uses against lefties and a new sweeper that he throws to righties. The slider is essentially the same one he threw last year, coming in at 90.9 mph with slightly less drop than last year. Meanwhile, the sweeper is 85.1 mph with nine inches more drop than the slider and nine inches more horizontal movement.
You can see in the graphic below how the slider (in yellow) and the sweeper (in mustard yellow) both have observed movement counter-clockwise, which means away from right-handed hitters. The overlap in the movement is a good indicator of the deception since we can see how they share similar movement profiles but the sweeper moves way more. The slider also starts its spin-based movement (where it approaches the plate) on a similar plane as the four-seam, which should create deception between those pitches.
The sweeper has been the better pitch of the two, which isn't such a bad thing since Wheeler will see more right-handed hitters. The new sweeper has a 16.4% SwStr% (slightly below league average), 28.4% CSW, and 41.4% whiff rate. It does have a .273 batting average against (BAA) but just a .200 expected batting average (xBA), so there appears to be a fair bit of unluckiness here.
The issue might be that Wheeler has a 35.8% zone rate on the sweeper, which is the lowest of any of his pitches. He throws 18% in the waste zone, which is way out of the strike zone. Perhaps he's still figuring out the command of the pitch since it's new, which will be something to keep an eye on as we go forward.
VERDICT: MARGINALLY IMPACTFUL
The new sweeper could improve Wheeler's SwStr% and give him the type of strikeout upside we saw from him in 2021. However, Wheeler has spiked good strikeout rates before and still is relying on the four-seam as his main two-strike pitch, so I think this new pitch mix will eventually make him a better strikeout pitcher than what we saw last year. He's not going to suddenly be way more valuable than a pitcher who had a 2.82 ERA and 9.59 K/9 last year.
Brad Keller - Curve and Sweeper
Brad Keller is off to a decent start with a 3.96 ERA through his first five starts. In this early going, much has been made about Keller's new curveball and sweeper; however, there are a lot of concerns to get into here.
Let's start with the positives, though. Brad Keller's curveball is a good pitch. In fact, it's his best pitch and the seventh-best curveball in baseball by Stuff+. The curve is 84.5 mph with 45 inches of drop and just four inches of horizontal run, so it's an over-the-top curve, which you can see in this Driveline breakdown:
The curve has performed well this year with a 19.4% SwStr%, 31.6% CSW, 31.85 whiff rate, and .200 xBA. The pitch allows a -11 degree launch angle and has a 2.48 dERA, so it's no surprise that Keller is using it 26% of the time. With the curve and the sinker, Keller actually has two pretty strong pitches. The issue is finding that third pitch.
The slider could be it, but Keller appears to be throwing two separate sliders. Statcast and Alex Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard have him for a slider and a sweeper; however, there is little about the pitches that seem different. According to Statcast, Keller's slider is 85.3 mph with 38.6 inches of vertical drip and 12 inches of horizontal break. His sweeper is 84.2 mph with 41.7 inches of vertical drop and 18.6 inches of horizontal break. So the pitches are similar in velocity and vertical drop, but the sweeper has a more aggressive breakaway from righties.
It's that more aggressive break that appears to be the issue for Keller. He has only thrown the sweeper 4% of the time. The pitch has yet to record a swinging strike and has a 33% waste rate, which means a third of his sweepers are so far off the plate that nobody would think to swing at them. That's a problem.
The sweeper also has a .500 BAA in its limited sample size, but almost everything about it seems to be a pitch that Keller should scrap. Especially since his slider has a 13.3% SwStr%, .091 BAA, and -1.12 dERA.
On the surface, it seems like a pitch mix of sinker, curve, and slider would be pretty appealing for Keller and would allow him to attack all four quadrants of the plate. However, Keller prefers to throw his mediocre four-seam fastball to left-handed hitters. So far this year, Keller has thrown 276 pitches to lefties and just 187 to righties.
VERDICT: POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
I don't think this pitch mix is fully there yet, but there is something here. The curve is a legit pitch, and it makes Keller a better pitcher without a doubt. It's just that the sweeper doesn't bring anything right now, the four-seam isn't particularly good, and Keller has an unsightly 17.6% walk rate. Since the curve and slider aren't pitches he has trouble commanding, I think it's worth paying attention to Keller to see if he leans into those two pitches more because I think that could make him a viable streamer in most leagues.
Sonny Gray - Cutter
Sonny Gray threw a cutter last year, but it had the look of a slider. It was about 83 mph and had the same kind of small hump you'd expect to see in a traditional slider. Now, his cutter is 87.7 mph with almost 12 inches less drop. You can see the difference between the two pitches in the video here.
In that video, you can also see how the cutter pairs well with both Gray's sinker and slider, two pitches that he frequently throws to right-handed batters. That allows him to rely less on a four-seam fastball that has a .303 xBA and just a 10.3% whiff rate. The deception with the cutter and the slider now being released from the same arm slot but having a four mph difference in velocity and a 13.5-inch difference in drop has also allowed the slider to play up.
Gray is using the slider 38% with two strikes, his most-thrown two-strike pitch. It has a 25.9% SwStr% and 47.2% whiff rate after posting a 14.4% SwStr% and 31.3% whiff rate last year. That's oftentimes the overlooked beauty of a new pitch. It's not just that the pitch itself works, but that the pitch makes other pitches in the arsenal better.
However, Gray's cutter has also been good. It doesn't miss a lot of bats (7.7% SwStr%), but it has a .100 batting average (.179 xBA), .100 SLG (.254 xSLG), and a -2.5 degree launch angle, which has led to a 0.52 dERA on the pitch. So he uses the cutter to induce groundballs and soft contact and then the frequent use of the cutter makes the slider a more deceptive pitch that he can use with two strikes. All of that spells a more dynamic pitcher.
VERDICT: MEANINGFULLY IMPACTFUL.
Gray had just a 9.5% SwStr% last year, so while he didn't have a bad year overall, he was limited as a fantasy pitcher because he didn't really get strikeouts. He has a 12.5% SwStr% this year, which is a pretty sizable jump that I can attribute to his new pitch mix. Is he going to have a 0.62 ERA going forward? No, but he's at least a rock-solid SP2 in fantasy for this year.
Tanner Houck - Cutter
In his career, Houck has some minor splits, allowing a .235 average, .373 SLG, and 23.5% strikeout rate to lefties while holding righties to a .200 average, .254 SLG, and 30.5% strikeout rate. Obviously, the difference in batting average and strikeout rate is what stands out. Houck hasn't necessarily been bad against lefties, but if he could get more strikeouts or induce more soft contact, he could potentially turn the lineup over more.
In years past, he introduced a splitter as a pitch to primarily attack lefties. While it's been successful in terms of inducing swings and misses, he has struggled with the command of it and doesn't seem to trust it. Even though the splitter has a 60% whiff rate and 27.9% SwStr% this year, Houck is only using it 13% of the time.
The cutter then becomes the pitch that Houck can use to limit damage from lefties. It doesn't miss bats, with just a 10% SwStr%, but it does have a -7.6 degree launch angle and a .182 batting average against. It has been barreled 14.3% of the time and has a .455 SLG, so it's still a work in progress. It's 2.4 mph slower than his four-seam but actually has a less horizontal break or "cut."
On the surface, the idea to add a cutter makes sense. It would start at the same release point as the four-seam and splitter but create deception when it breaks more than the four-seam and in the opposite direction as the splitter, which you can see below.
However, it's simply not working out that way right now with the cutter actually cutting less than the four-seam.
VERDICT: MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL
Another pitch to limit hard contact against lefties makes sense for Houck. Unfortunately, as of now, the cutter has an inconsistent movement profile and has allowed some hard barrels. Maybe it emerges into a good groundball pitch for him, but it's not that pitch right now.
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