RADIO
I’m obsessed with Chuck Shaw wine from Trader Joe's. It’s a $3 bottle of hooch that smells like paint thinner mixed with alcohol. It stings the nostrils. But after a glass or two, it’s the best damn bottle of wine you can get for under $5.
I happened to be drinking some of this wine when I discovered my new FBB obsession, the Regressed Probabilistic Model (RPM). I like it so much, I might get it tattooed on my lower back.
From the genius minds at baseball prospectus, they have created a few stats that help quantify a catchers ability to frame pitches. As it turns out, there are a handful of catchers so sneaky good at pitch framing, they generate way more strikes, producing more outs and reducing runs.
How Pitch Framing Impacts Fantasy Baseball
This advanced data, calculated in extra strikes and runs saved, has staggering fantasy ramifications. In fact, this stat is so awesome, I am making a NEW RULE: All pitchers get a minor boost in value if they are throwing to a top notch pitch framer. It only makes sense.
I also think pitch framing works both ways and the worst framing catchers could actually hurt a pitcher’s stats, frequently causing borderline strikes look more like balls. If a pitcher knows his catcher can or can't frame pitches on the outside, how does that affect the pitcher’s approach? My guess is framing has a major impact.
The Benefits Of Good Pitch Framing
In 2012, Jose Molina batted an atrocious .233/.286/.355 in 102 games. He, hilariously, might also be the slowest player in MLB history. Back then, the signing had many people wondering what the Rays were doing with such an offensive liability. It’s because Jose Molina was considered one of the best pitch framers in baseball.
Because of advanced catching metrics, the career backup was given the starting job in Tampa. His pitch framing ability offset his terrible offense.
In Molina’s first season with the Rays, his pitching staff led the league in ERA. Molina generated 191.8 extra strikes and was responsible for saving an additional 28.5 runs. Factor this into WAR and you can see how valuable a good pitch framer is.
So, this begs the question, does a potential ace like Tampa’s Alex Cobb now lose some value because of Molina’s departure?
The Rays easily decided to not resign the soon-to-be 40 year old, after batting .178 with 40 pathetic hits in 80 games. Instead, they acquired catcher Ryan Hanigan (in the Wil Myers deal) and then flipped him for Rene Rivera, a 31 year old Journeyman with, you guessed it, fantastic pitch framing skills.
So, had they not signed another elite pitch framer, I would expect a slight dip. But with Rivera behind the plate, I don't see any risk drafting Cobb, but I would rather take Sonny Gray one to two rounds later anyway.
Best Pitch Framers Heading Into 2015
Now, who are the better pitch framers for 2015? Buster Posey generated 179.6 extra strikes in 2014 and his mark led the league. Tampa’s new catcher Rivera was second, with 176. Jonathan Lucroy and Boston’s rookie catcher Christian Vazquez were also in the top 10 in extra strikes. I expect these four, and Houston’s Hank Conger to be competing for the top ranking pitch framer in 2015.
The worst pitch framer in 2014 was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, with -175 strikes. Yes you read that correctly. Salty LOST 175 strikes for his pitchers in 2014. I Immediately think of the upgrade Nate Eovaldi will get throwing to Brian McCann, who generated 71 extra strikes in 2014. Eovaldi gets a nice boost.
Who’s the best you ask? A lot of attention has been paid to the complete overhaul of the Boston Red Sox starting rotation and GM Ben Cherington’s lack of an ace. With newcomers Justin Masterson, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, and Joe Kelly, It almost seems like Cherrington put together a rotation of fantasy pitchers I would normally stream, just to battle it out for Ace status. But if you consider the framing of second year backstop, Christian Vazquez, will his skills help with the emergence of an ace?
Vazquez was among the top ten in extra strikes last season, with 98.5, but he did this in only half the games as league leader, Buster Posey. Over an entire season, Vazquez’s framing numbers are world class.
All pitchers appreciate a good pitch framer. It changes their attitude on the mound and gives them a boost in numbers. Chris Sale confidently paints just below the strike zone with his slider because he knows Tyler Flowers is framing his pitch to look more like a strike. AJ Pierzynski did the exact opposite and caught everything in the dirt. It pays to have a good pitch framer.
Pitchers Positively Affected By Good Pitch Framing
So who will be affected most this season by his catcher? The previously mentioned Eovaldi and Wade Miley will see a nice bump. But my choice to have the most positive impact from his catcher, will be actually be the young Toronto Jays duo of very exciting young starters in Drew Hutchinson and 22 year old rookie Aaron Sanchez, who has the highest upside of the bunch. Marcus Stroman would also be included, if he didn't just tear his ACL.
In 2014, Jays catcher Dioner Navarro was an abysmal -69.5 strikes and accounted for an additional 10.5 runs. After acquiring Russell Martin, whose pitch framing saved 16.5 runs and has past success developing young pitchers, these two young arms get a major boost in value.
Pitchers Negatively Affected By Bad Pitch Framing
The pitcher most negatively affected by a new catcher, happens to be the 21st player in MLB history to have a first name that starts with the letter Y, Yovani Gallardo.
I routinely avoided Gallardo, as a rule, and I can proudly say I have never owned him on any fantasy team, ever. Even when he had the luxury of throwing to Jonathan Lucroy, one of MLB’s best over the last several years, he was still terrible. This season, Gallardo will be throwing to Robinson Chirinos, who finished close to the bottom at -29.6 extra strikes. I advise to just leave Gallardo alone.
Ultimately, I admit, bad pitch framing is not going to ruin an elite pitcher and elite pitch framing isn't going to make a bad pitcher an ace. But, when it comes to fantasy baseball, I will take any predictable statistics I can find and use them to my advantage. That’s how I’m rolling; poor people wine and advanced catching metrics.
