RADIO
For the first time in 70 years, the PGA Championship will be moved up in the calendar to the spring. The transition from August to May makes sense for a few reasons, most notably to try and help the golf season end before the NFL begins and to try and reinvigorate golf's least talked about major, but there are a few questions heading into the week.
The most prominent problem would be: "Can you play golf in the northern part of the country in May?" To answer the question respectfully, yes. However, you still need to get extremely lucky as far as weather is concerned. New York has experienced a cold and wet season, but all indications have pointed towards Bethpage Black being in pristine condition for the week.
It remains to be seen if those statements hold steady, but we shouldn't be expecting the PGA Championship to be set up like a U.S. Open venue, which should help the scoring throughout the week.
2019 PGA Championship Overview
Brooks Koepka enters the event as the defending champion, capturing the 2018 title at Bellerive Country Club in Town and Country, Missouri. The American put together an emphatic Sunday round, shooting a four-under 66 on Sunday to narrowly escape Tiger Woods' ascension up the leaderboard. Koepka's victory marked his third career major, and this week's tournament provides him with an opportunity to enter an even more illustrious club.
If the American can walk out of New York as a back-to-back winner at the PGA Championship, it would be his fourth major title in his last eight grand slam events, and the 29-year-old would hold each of the past two U.S. Opens and PGA Championships. It is certainly a possibility that Koepka pulls off the extraordinary feat, but players such as Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson will be trying to avoid that possibility from playing out. Without further ado, let's take a look at some value plays we will be targeting for the second major of the year.
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.
Bethpage Black - Course Overview
7,436 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua
While Bethpage Black is being labeled as a U.S. Open type track because of its history there in 2002 and 2009, don't be fooled by that narrative. Seven of the past nine winners of the PGA Championship have shot 10-under par or better, and despite the extensive rain that has been pelting New York recently, we shouldn't expect to see golfers struggling to make birdies with the way the venue will be set up.
Earlier this year, Chief Championships Officer Kerry Haigh was quoted saying, "I don't think it's our job to try and manipulate something. We'll set up a good, strong, fair test of golf and see how the best players do." What that means is we shouldn't expect to see the knee-buckling rough that is often synonymous with U.S. Open layouts, and if the wind doesn't enter the picture, we will be dealing with an incredibly soft course because of the rain.
The one area where it will make a massive difference is off the tee. Bethpage Black is a brute of a venue lengthwise in pristine conditions, and with rain hitting New York throughout the past two months, we are going to see distance off the tee play a significant role. A driver will have to be used on the vast majority of holes, and players that have higher ball flights should find their second shots to be much more straightforward. Even if we didn't have soft conditions, it would be challenging to run the ball up to the greens and landing in the bunkers will prove to be a test since they are large, deep and complicated.
PGA Championship Best Bets
Like most majors, I expect to see an upward shift in the market for most players as the week goes on, especially considering the fact that Tiger Woods is the favorite. The 'Tiger Effect' is a real thing so be patient and methodical when putting in your wagers for the PGA Championship. My five selections are recommended at their current number, but in no way is everyone a must-bet at this very second. I will try to touch on where I think the line might be going throughout the week but be sure to shop around at different books for the best price you can find. Value is critical for all weeks but can be even more evident in major championship events.
As I mentioned during my 'PGA DFS Tournament Preview,' there isn't an optimal way to set your fantasy lineups, and the same could be said for your outright wagers. Just because a golfer isn't mentioned below, it doesn't mean they aren't worth long consideration. We are dealing with a stacked field of 156 of the best players in the world, and things will never be as cut and dry as you would care to see. Don't be afraid to go with your gut in situations, but it is essential to make sure that you stick within your usual budget and gameplan. Grand slam tournaments aren't a reason to lose all self-control and bankroll management.
#1 Jon Rahm - 20/1
DK Price $9,500, FD Price $11,200
Let's start with the obvious. The big four of Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy are not listed as my top pick to win this event. However, in no way, shape or form does that mean I don't believe one of those players could win. In fact, McIlroy does rank out as my top choice to capture the title, but as I keep stressing week after week, it is all about value and construction when putting together your outright betting cards for any event.
We have a lot of ways this comparison could be broken down, but let's go with perhaps the most straightforward route of them all. Tiger Woods' 8/1 price equates to a 12.5% win percentage, meaning that Woods would need to capture this title 12.5 times out of 100 trips to Bethpage Black to break even. Vegas is well aware of the intrigue that the 81-time PGA Tour winner draws to golf, and they protect their assets by consistently making Woods a practically unbettable option. To make things worse, DraftKings will mimic the odds that Vegas puts out, which is why we also see the American consistently overpriced on DFS sites. The combination of those two factors doesn't make Woods incapable of winning, but it does make him a bad bet at his number for most weeks.
Assuming we are betting to win the same amount on each player - which I believe is the optimal way to construct your wagers, Woods would require a bet of 1.25 units to earn a base total of 10 units. I prefer to have less than 1.5 units in action for any tournament, so we have basically hit our threshold if we go to the very top of the board. You can switch out the golfers as you see fit, but the way I look at it is we could either bet Tiger at 8/1 or Jon Rahm (20/1), Jason Day (25/1) and Rickie Fowler (22/1) for about the same investment. Remember, this doesn't mean the big four won't win, but I have decided to take my chances with the next tier of players.
Starting off that tier will be the aforementioned Jon Rahm. We could sit here all day and discuss whether the Spaniard has the temperament needed to seize his first major title at 24 years old, but Rahm is the same age that Justin Thomas was when he first broke through during the 2017 PGA Championship, and Bethpage Black seems to be the ideal venue to suit the 11th-ranked player in the world.
We have heard countless adaptations of how the course might play this weekend, but I am going in with the approach that the winner will be better than 10-under par. There has been a lot of talk about this potentially getting played at half that number, but outside of rain softening up the fairways and reducing rollouts, I don't believe this setup will be nearly as complicated as everyone is expecting. Past experiences with this track at the U.S. Open is making everyone weary of a knee-knocking, grind it out affair, but I think length off the tee will allow players like Rahm, McIlroy and Johnson to find a plethora of scoring chances.
Rahm enters the week ranked second in strokes gained off the tee compared to the field and is also inside the top 20 in driving distance, three-putt avoidance, par-four average, birdie or better percentage, bogey avoidance and ball flight apex. The three-time PGA Tour winner has recorded 17 straight made cuts, including two victories at the Zurich Classic team event and the Hero World Challenge. Rahm's game is elite, and it is just a matter of time before the Spaniard breaks through with his first major title. It seems likely to me that we might be able to see this number float up slightly higher in the next few days. It wouldn't shock me to grab 22/1 or more by the time he tees off Thursday.
#2 Jason Day - 25/1
DK Price $9,000, FD Price $11,300
Reports have trickled out that the rough could be very difficult this week. I am not a massive believer in that being the case because the second cut isn't that thick. However, it does get more advanced the further you miss the fairway, and the extreme rain that New York has received could make the first day or two a bit of a test before the wetness dries out if players can't advance the ball more than 150 yards.
I ran a model that incorporated a 90 percent weight onto 2019 statistics and 10 percent to 2018 and found that only 13 players graded out within the top 40 in driving distance and top 60 in driving accuracy. Those golfers were Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Jason Kokrak, Aaron Wise, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood, Charles Howell III, Tiger Woods and Alex Noren. The thought process behind this was to find players who could still create scoring opportunities because of their length but wouldn't be so wayward off the tee that they would run into issues if the rough does play more penal than I am expecting.
Jason Day has been the prototypical mold for the skillset you are looking for at the PGA Championship. Five straight top-20 results at the event, including a victory in 2015 and a runner-up finish in 2016 helps to tell the story, but Day has also been able to find success at Bethpage Black in his two tries. A fourth-place result in 2016 should have been better if it weren't for his 35.71 percent driving accuracy for the week, and it goes to show that the Aussie could potentially lap the field if he puts everything together this weekend.
The 31-year-old is currently projected to be the third highest owned player at 16 percent on DraftKings, but if you want to be in contention for any of the grand prizes in GPP events, you will need to have the winner. I'm not advocating 100 percent ownership across the board, but if I believe 16 percent is what his actual ownership percentage will be, you will find me overweight to that number.
#3 Bryson DeChambeau - 40/1
DK Price $8,900, FD Price $11,000
Bryson DeChambeau might have the most extended range of potential outcomes at Bethpage Black. His current form is less than ideal, producing six straight finishes of 20th place or worse, but the American has the talent to capture his first major title in New York and will go under the radar because of his past few results.
DeChambeau is one of the hardest workers on tour. I saw this first hand when I went to watch the Shriners Open in my hometown of Las Vegas, Nevada. After his first round five-under 66, the eighth-ranked player in the world stayed on the range for nearly four hours, hitting every shot that he thought had been giving him trouble. As things played out, he went on to win the tournament by one shot over Patrick Cantlay, and it was evident as to why the 25-year-old was one of the best players in the world at that moment.
DeChambeau enters the second major of the year ranked seventh compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee and is also ranked first in par-five birdie or better percentage and second in ball flight apex. His eight percent projected ownership is expected to be the second lowest of players $8,700 or above, and the American could be the key to winning the million dollar grand prize on DraftKings this weekend. His $8,900 price tag gives you a ton of options to consider, and you could theoretically begin your roster in countless ways. I like pairing DeChambeau with Rahm or Day at the top, but you technically could start even higher than that.
#4 Bubba Watson - 60/1
DK Price $8,00, FD Price $9,700
Bubba Watson has never been one to hide his feelings about a golf course, and he gave Bethpage Black the ultimate compliment on Tuesday, calling it "the perfect storm." The 18th-ranked player in the world has been known to run hot and cold at different tracks, and Bethpage Black has quietly been one of the better venues for the American in the past. Watson has never finished outside the top-20 in his three attempts, and his length off the tee will be on full display if the rough does happen to dry out by the time he tees it up on Thursday.
I was lucky enough to grab Watson's odds at 70/1 before he eventually plummetted into the 50s, but the 40-year-old has seen a bump back up to 60/1, and the number might climb even higher than that by the time he tees off on Thursday. Watson enters the week ranked third in strokes gained off the tee and fifth in driving distance compared to the field, but he has struggled recently with his putting average, coming in at 102nd. While that is less than promising, the one factor that might outweigh his recent form is his work on Poa greens. During his past 50 rounds on the surface, Watson grades out 13th compared to the field in strokes gained putting.
Priced at $8,00 on DraftKings, the 12-time PGA Tour winner will be a popular selection, but when Bubba enters his happy zone, the golf world needs to take notice. I believe his outright price should have been 40/1 and think we are getting nearly a 20 point gift from the market. Don't be shocked if Watson walks out of New York as the winner of the 101st PGA Championship.
#5 Gary Woodland - 75/1
DK Price $7,700, FD Price $9,900
Anytime I mention someone else as a potential alternative; they seem to win. You don't have to look any further than Sung Kang last weekend. So for what it is worth, Adam Scott was considered for this selection at 60/1, but I will instead round off my card with Gary Woodland at 75/1.
It is fair to say that Woodland has underachieved so far in his career. There have been countless times where the American has been unable to get the job done, which includes last year's PGA Championship. A tumultuous triple-bogey on Saturday at the 10th hole undid his 36-hole lead, and while the 34-year-old was able to get his emotions under control during the next two days to come in a share of sixth place, his dreams of capturing his first major were tarnished.
Fast forward to the 2019 calendar season, and there's a lot to like about the 25th-ranked player in the world. Two top-two finishes at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and CJ Cup have been the highlight of his year, but the more encouraging factor we should pay attention to is how he performed when in contention. A final round 63 should have been good enough to win in South Korea, but Brooks Koepka was able to hold on with a Sunday 64 of his own. Then at the Tournament of Champions, Woodland fired four rounds of 68 or better but was undone after Xander Schauffele's historic final round 62 to win by one shot. It isn't inconceivable that Woodland should have captured both titles, but since he didn't, the narrative of him being a constant underachiever remains firm in everyone's mind.
Woodland's game is tailor-made for a venue like Bethpage Black. Long off the tee and straight, the American should theoretically have an advantage over most of the field because of his overall driving prowess. When you add in his ability with his long irons and birdie-making skills, you start to get a hint that Woodland might be in the incorrect price range. His $7,700 price tag on DraftKings will make him a popular selection, but he is perhaps the most likely winner at $7,700 or less.
My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week
Key Stats: SG Off The Tee 20%, Driving Distance 17.5%, Proximity Over 200 Yards 12.5%, Birdie Or Better Percentage 12.5%, Strokes Gained Approach 10%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage 10%, Apex 10% and Par-Four Average 7.5 %
50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History
First Round Leader Recommendations
Gary Woodland 65/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Cameron Smith 100/1
Si Woo Kim 110/1
Thomas Pieters 110/1
Jhonattan Vegas 110/1
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ -1115
Dylan Frittelli $6,300 price tag on DraftKings vs. Cameron Champ $6,900 price tag on DraftKings
Dylan Frittelli 3.5 percent projected ownership vs. Cameron Champ 0.8 percent projected ownership
1.05 Units to Win 1.00
Full disclosure, Dylan Frittelli graded out 32nd overall for me this weekend, and Cameron Champ came in at 75th. But I feel like that is an incredibly generous ranking for Champ, who has a much higher missed cut potential than most players in his range.
Including Champ's withdrawal at the Players Championship, the 23-year-old has failed to make the weekend in his past five events and has disappointed throughout all of 2019, posting just one top-25 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, a tournament that featured only 33 players. Frittelli, on the other hand, enters the week having produced five consecutive made cuts, which features two top-25 finishes.
Bethpage Black is a bit of a question mark with how the rough is going to play. I have been on record during this article saying that it won't be as penal during the weekend once the rain gets soaked up, but we are still in for a stressful first day or two. Champ enters the week ranked 98th in driving accuracy compared to the field, and the smaller than average greens will give him issues with his ranking of 104th in strokes gained ATG. Add in a low apex, poor bunker play and lousy scrambling numbers, and it feels as if this test will be too much for Champ at this point in his career.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (13-5-2)
+9.12 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
|
Valero Texas Open |
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MDF (+1) |
MC (+4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Masters |
Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T12 (-8) |
T29 (-4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Wells Fargo Championship |
Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie |
0.75 Units to win 0.90 |
2nd (-12) |
T18 (-5) |
Win |
0.90 |
|
Byron Nelson |
Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+5) |
T59 (-7) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66/1 |
1 |
|
Corey Conners |
Valero Texas Open |
200/1 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110/1 |
T2 |
|
Dustin Johnson |
Masters |
12/1 |
T2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80/1 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80/1 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10/1 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35/1 |
T3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60/1 |
T3 |
|
Scott Piercy |
RBC Heritage |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60/1 |
T4 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
Byron Nelson |
7/1 |
T4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13/1 |
T5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45/1 |
T5 |
|
Jason Day |
Masters |
40/1 |
T5 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25/1 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60/1 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28/1 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30/1 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150/1 |
T10 |
|
Troy Merritt |
RBC Heritage |
250/1 |
T10 |
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