RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
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Reflection: Last Week's Northern Trust
Apologies for my lack of article last week! It was the first week of school in North Carolina, and setting up my virtual learning environment for those 6th graders was my first priority. I'll do my best to continue these articles so long as my school load allows! Thanks to all of you fellow teachers out there for all you do, and thank you to those parents who do their best to support their kids' teachers!
As far as the Northern Trust, I didn't have any DJ, so I clearly didn't make money! However, I did get back about $48 of my $60 in entry fees thanks largely to Harris English and Daniel Berger. My value plays were pretty disappointing overall, so I'll take my money and run to the BMW Championship! Screenshot for review will be back next week!
Approach: BMW Championship
We head to Olympia Fields Country Club in Illinois for the BMW Championship this year, and it should be another fun, talented field! The lengthy Par 70 once again is drawing comparisons to TPC Harding Park, which should mean a lot of the same iron play we've seen in the past month can be indicative of good play to come. There will be seven Par 4s over 450 yards, and the two Par 5s are also bears. Hitting greens with longer irons will be at a premium, and players will need to scramble a bit to avoid bogeys as well.
As we've said before in no-cut events, we want to target upside more than anything else. Find those birdie-makers, don't worry about their potential blow-ups, and hope you find a hot putter or six. I went HEAVY on the guys who I trust this week, as there's no real downside besides a WD due to injury. I targeted some guys who have done well for me lately, and a few names that I think have the talent to bounce back from rough patches. Take a look below at my "Staples" for the week in my 20 $1 GPP lineups.
Staples Over $8.5K: BMW Championship
Daniel Berger: $9,700 - About 65%
Ho hum. Another Top 5 for Berger last week in Boston. Other than his missed cut in Ohio, we can make the argument that rostering Berger has been the correct move EVERY WEEK! This man has flipped the switch in 2020, and this course fits his strengths. He'll be a contender again come Sunday, just you wait.
Justin Thomas: $10,800 - About 35%
Rory McIlroy: $10,300 - About 35%
Two players who are capable of taking over a tournament without any notice at all. When JT putts well, he wins. It's as simple as that. He's one of the best Tee-to-Green players in the world (maybe the best), so it's a simple question of will the putts fall. As for Rory, we finally saw signs of life in his irons at times last week. His driver will return, and if that happens as the irons are getting straightened out, we can be quickly reminded why Rory was over $11k exclusively for a long, long time.
Staples Under $8.5K: BMW Championship
Mark Hubbard: $7,000 - About 75%
One of the best long irons players in the field, one of the most consistent putters in the field (on his preferred putting surface), and a man who is red hot with his recent form. Oh, and he's just $7,000 with no risk of a cut if his driver disappears for a few holes. Uh, yeah. Sign me ALL THE WAY up.
Tyrell Hatton: $8,300 - About 60%
Hatton figured out his irons for 2-of-4 rounds at the Northern Trust last week, and we saw him go LOW on those two days. That's the upside we're looking at if his consistency that we saw heading into and coming out of the layoff returns. He's a top-tier putter with deadly confidence. Hatton will be in the winner's circle again very soon, and it could very well be Sunday.
Joel Dahmen: $6,500 - About 50%
A player who is way more talented than his price tag, and when he gets hot, he can go as low as anyone. His game is in a weird, polarizing place right now. However, if we get good Dahmen after his relaxing weekend playing Country Club ball in Foxboro, then this is an extremely optimal play. No cut is HUGE!
Russell Henley: $7,800 - About 45%
A supreme long iron player who has been held back by a brutal putter in the past. Just proved over the last few weeks that he's improved his putting mightily, and on two different surfaces too! He looks much more confident and like he belongs for the first time that I can remember. This price is still too low despite the bump following his strong showing in Boston.
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