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Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Valero Texas Open (Round 1). The 2023 PGA Tour season is in full swing, and our friends over at PrizePicks still have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
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This week, we're at TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. It's the final opportunity for some of golf's marquee names to punch their ticket into the Masters next week, and as such, we've got plenty of star power on offer. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll ahead of the year's first Major Championship! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, March 30.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Chris Kirk OVER Peter Malnati - Birdies or Better Matchup
On paper, this is the biggest mismatch I've seen in this Birdie or Better market. Not only does Kirk rate out as one of the more prolific birdie makers in this field (1st in Birdie or Better %, 3rd in Birdie Chances Created in 2023), but Malnati comes into this week on the back of some putrid form (4 Missed Cuts in a row, and outside the top 120 in Birdie Chances Created).
I mentioned in my weekly article how important keeping the ball in play off-the-tee will be this week, and these two couldn't be more diametrically opposed in that regard: Kirk rates 9th in Good Drive %, Malnati 119th. If you cannot consistently find fairways around TPC San Antonio, it will be very difficult to create consistent birdie looks, and Malnati's iron play has been nowhere near good enough to get him out of the trouble his driver will inevitably get him in.
As I see it, Malnati's only out in this matchup would be to roll in a million putts, but Kirk has not been that far behind him in recent putting splits (14th vs 6th over the last three months). If this was a stand-alone offering, I would be laying the absolute hammer here.
Rickie Fowler LESS THAN 71 Strokes
It's a big week for those of us in Fowler nation, as Rickie comes into the Valero needing a win to secure a spot in the Masters' field for the first time since 2020. The good news is that Fowler comes into this must-win situation playing some of the best golf we've seen since his peak.
He's gained strokes on approach in every start of the 2023 season so far, and the putter looks to be back to its vintage, free-flowing ways. Rickie's gained over 3 strokes per tournament with his flat stick over his last five starts, and this has allowed him to go on a torrid run of form: Logging 10th, 11th, 20th, 31st, and 13th place finishes in five of the PGA Tour's new "elevated events" to start the year. F
owler should be considered one of the favorites to find the winner's circle this week and he's made a habit of starting strong in 2023 - ranking 12th in this field in Round 1 scoring average.
As much as I love some of the under-the-radar names in the field this week, only one name will truly move the needle if he's in contention this weekend. Let's hope the opening act of this live-action Disney movie sets us up for a grand finale on Sunday night.
Corey Conners MORE THAN 12.5 Grees in Regulation:
There's an old adage amongst sports bettors that you always want the over on the highest total on the board, and the under on the lowest total. I'm paying homage to that philosophy with Corey Conners' O12.5 GIRs in Round 1 this week.
Although TPC San Antonio features some of the more difficult green complexes to hit on the PGA Tour, the smooth-swinging Canadian has had no trouble navigating these tricky approaches over the course of his career. The 2019 Valero Champion has never lost strokes on approach in four starts around this venue and has beaten the field average in GIR % in 14 of his 16 recorded rounds.
Fresh off of a 2-1 Match Play record in which he hit nearly 80% of his Greens in Regulation (38/48), and took tournament runner-up Cameron Young to the wire in the group stage, Conners has both the recent results and long-term profile to place my confidence in this week.
Other Recommendations
- Matt Kuchar O8.5 Fairways Hit
- Si Woo Kim OVER Emiliano Grill0 - Birdies or Better Matchup
- Matt Wallace U8 Fairways Hit
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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