RADIO
Folks, I have never wanted to attend a tournament more than wanting to go to the RBC Canadian Open. It seems like an absolute hoot. Nick Taylor charged up the leaderboard this morning taking the lead of the tournament before the leaders had even teed off. He shot a -9 (63) that was bogey free and driven by some stellar iron play that was backed up by a trusty putter that he did not have in R1. Tommy Fleetwood shot a 64 and did so gaining 4.5 strokes putting, which puts him in a precarious position heading into R4 as he averages negative strokes gained on Sundays. C.T. Pan leads the way with a two shot lead at -14 playing in his 4th event of the year, while 7 golfers are tied for T2. Fun times heading into Sunday.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Now, as much as we preach to avoid chasing ownership points, there are always exceptions to the rule and the beast that is Oak Hill CC is just that. Time for some quick math. The average points scored in R3 of the Byron Nelson was 41. Today, the field average was 21 points, on the easiest of the 3 days played so far.
So, we have a 20-point difference in average points between the two tournaments. The average of the points available for top 10 finishes is 8, which is 16% of the total points scored at the Byron and 28% of the available projected points in R4 tomorrow. A 12% increase across six roster spots is 72% which is basically 3/4 of a 7th roster spot. We are probably going to want to try roster as many guys who have a legitimate shot at making it into the top-10 tomorrow. More on this below.
Round 4 Strategy
Weather seems like a non-factor tomorrow with temps not baking out the course at all.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN $12K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY] (ROUND 3), which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Tyrrell Hatton let us down big time yesterday. He just never showed up to the party and as a result we should see some ownership relief despite recording the worst round of the day for those sitting inside the top 20. It is time for redemption bro beans... ... ... yes, we are not happy with you so you get multiple ellipses ... ...
Rory McIlroy remains an enigma, gaining 5 strokes tee-t0-green after gaining over 5 strokes putting the first two rounds. The putter let him down today, as we hoped, but he his driver continues to be a cheat code... He is going to be mega chalky tomorrow and despite every round seemingly hanging on by a thread, he sits atop the leaderboard. We are hoping for a meltdown to bust the slate wide open.
$9,000+
Go get em Justin Rose! Despite gaining no strokes off the tee, he continues to strike his irons really well and should find himself comfortable in contention tomorrow. Hopefully Matt Fitzpatrick can dial up the birdie baramoter tomorrow and shoot himself up the leaderboard as a low owned option in the $9k range, sitting in T20. Corey Conners played similarly to Tyrrell but we were not on him last round, so going to him for R4 feels less "you owe me, BRO!" than we feel with the fiesty Englishman in the $10k range.
Shane Lowry plays some of his best golf in R4 and we are begging Sahith Theegala to apply his world class chess skills to his driving course management - your queen (driver) is hobbled my dude, so leave her in the bag and maybe work some magic with the other pieces that you wield so wonderfully. He has lost the 4th most strokes off the tee this week.
$8,000+
Ludvig Aberg is going to be a super start. Not a lot of stats to back that up, but he seems like he has Cam Young power, but can actually putt. b has also been a stalwart in the DFS world and sits in a "no where land" of T24 but could easily storm up the leaderboard tomorrow with the way he has been playing lately.
$7,000+
Nick Taylor is just playing too good right now to leave off the card at $7,600. He will be chalk, but we saw what he can do when in contention at the WMPO. Brandon Wu is T11 and ready to surge up that leaderboard with Nate Lashley not far behind him. Carson Young is playing such good golf right now and is in T24 which is a fiery round away from a T10. These will all be chalky plays, but so be it, its R4 - just make sure you construct your lineups with one or two single digit owned golfers (next up).
Single digit ownership will come in the form of Akshay Bhatia, SH Kim, Alex Smalley, Harry Hall, Garrick Higgo, Dylan Wu, and Peter Malnati. They can all be sprinkled into lineups, as one of them will hopefully have a super low round tomorrow with no pressure on their shoulders, way out the mix.
$6,000+
Harrison Endycott seems to be the only $6k golfer we like for R4. We have a lot of cheap $7k guys above, which should help save some salary.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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