RADIO
Scottie Scheffler has not shot under par in his last three Saturday rounds. A very peculiar pattern is starting to emerge for the World No. 2. Meanwhile, he still sits in T10, behind Adam Schenk and Harry Hall who continue to play well above their baselines. Harris English sits a shot back of the two leaders and 3 shots clear of 4th place, making tomorrow very interesting from a showdown perspective.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Now, as much as we preach to avoid chasing ownership points, there are always exceptions to the rule and the beast that is Oak Hill CC is just that. Time for some quick math. The average points scored in R3 of the Byron Nelson was 41. Today, the field average was 21 points, on the easiest of the 3 days played so far.
So, we have a 20-point difference in average points between the two tournaments. The average of the points available for top 10 finishes is 8, which is 16% of the total points scored at the Byron and 28% of the available projected points in R4 tomorrow. A 12% increase across six roster spots is 72% which is basically 3/4 of a 7th roster spot. We are probably going to want to try roster as many guys who have a legitimate shot at making it into the top-10 tomorrow. More on this below.
Round 4 Strategy
We have the usual Texas warm temps in the afternoon that is going to affect the afternoon scoring a little as the course bakes out and gets crusty.
Early tee times and low owned golfers late in the afternoon will be our predominant targets heading into R4.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN $12K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY] (ROUND 3), which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Scottie Scheffler luckily had the dub we predicted yesterday in R3 and we will now be jumping on the World No. 2's bandwagon heading into R4. He is a spendy $12,00 but we will find some value in the price ranges.
Max Homa is our 2nd and last $10K golfer in our lineups as he has been playing average golf with a big round in the chamber heading into R4.
$9,000+
Can Justin Rose maybe, just maybe, putt to his potential??? Sheesh!!! The 5th best Bentgrass putter in the field is losing the 2nd most strokes putting through 3 rounds, yet leads the field in approach play. VERY frustrating.
Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim, and Russel Henley will be some other $9k golfers we look to target in R4.
$8,000+
Tom Hoge is one of the best iron players in the world and can have a course record breaking round at any minute. Stephan Jaeger and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are both due for a low round with Bez continuing to underperform on the greens.
$7,000+
Brian Harman, Kurt Kitayama, Robby Shelton, Alex Smalley, Mark Hubbard, Carson Young, Patrick Rodgers and Andrew Novak are all going to be our $7k guys we rely on to get the bottom of our rosters popping.
$6,000+
Michael Kim, Justin Lower and Luke Donald are going to be rounding out the bottom of our rosters in tomorrow's R4 slates.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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