RADIO
Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week's Breakdown features TPC Southwind, host of the PGA Tour's FedEx St. Jude Championship. The world's elite golfers will get a chance to unleash their power on this long course, but will have to be careful with water and trees sneaking into play. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
TPC Southwind: Par 70, 7243 Yards
Hole 1: Par 4, 434 Yards
Off the Tee: The first tee shot is out to a narrow fairway but has a lot of open space to miss to the left. They'll take the right bunkers out of play, especially because anything on that side will have tree trouble to the green. There is water on the hole, but it's not in play with the distance these guys hit it. There may be some punch-outs from the left rough depending on trees, but otherwise easy approaches to the green.
Approach: Nothing more than a short-iron to a small green with bunkers short-right and long-left. Good iron players without tree trouble should be able to put it close and score, and there isn't much trouble that will put large numbers on the card either. Green Size: 20x20 yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 2: Par 4, 401 Yards
Off The Tee: Similar to the last tee shot, the fairway is narrow but there is space to miss, this time on the right. Long hitters will have an advantage here because they completely remove the tree trouble. We may see the fairway intentionally missed here to cut off the hole, they can cut 50 yards or more off their approach the farther right they go.
Approach: The whole field will have wedges into this green with bunkers in the front and back for protection, but shouldn't be in play with wedges. This approach is pretty simple, hit it at the flag and go birdie hunting for everyone. Green Size: 25x10 yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 3: Par 5, 579 Yards
Off the Tee: Another narrow tee shot here, and a good tee shot will reward a look at the green in two. A fairway missed will most likely require a lay up, and then birdie comes from a wedge into the green instead of around the green in two.
Approach: A hybrid or fairway wood for most of the field to a green that is wide but short. They have to avoid the water, so we will see misses go long. Good misses will wind up in the fairway collection area, poor misses will end up in the bunkers on the back-left and back-right. Good short game players will have no problem getting it back onto the green and scoring. Those that have to lay up will just have preferred wedge distances with good angles into the green where the water isn't in play and good chances to score. Green Size: 35x15 yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 4: Par 3, 196 Yards
Approach: This is a long approach that has a green and defense to the green strategically set up to make the hole hard no matter where they put the pins. If the pin is in the front, from this distance it is very hard to hit it perfectly onto the narrow part of the green. Back-left pins bring water and bunkers into play, and back-right pins also have bunkers in play. This is a hard hole and par is a good score. Green Size: 20x25 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 5: Par 4, 485 Yards
Off The Tee: Seemingly a popular thing to do on some of these courses, this hole is a par 5 when normal people like us play it, but they move it up a tee box and play it as a long par 4. The goal on this tee shot is to keep it as right as possible to cut off as much of the hole as they can. Too far right is into the trees, and too far left could bring a fairway bunker in play, but also leaves over 200 yards on the approach. A long, accurate tee shot to the right is ideal.
Approach: Depending where the tee shot ends up, approaches can be anywhere from 150-200 yards. The green is long and narrow with bunkers protecting the left side only. The closer they are off the tee, the better chance they'll have to hit it close and score. If they're far away, par is the score they'll be happy with. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, GIR, SG: Approach
Hole 6: Par 4, 445 Yards
Off the Tee: This tee shot favors long hitters. For average length hitters, the fairway is narrow and if they miss, trees are in play on the left and trees and a fairway bunker are in play on the right. Long hitters can take both the trees and bunker out of play.
Approach: A short-iron approach to another long and narrow green. This one is protected in the back-left by a large bunker and another small bunker in the front-right. Unlike the last one, the approaches are much shorter here and will be much easier to score. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 7: Par 4, 482 Yards
Off The Tee: This is a long hole that requires length and accuracy off the tee. They need to keep it out of the fairway bunker on the left, and misses on either side could have tree trouble as well. It has to be straight or bogey is in play.
Approach: A long approach to a generous green. It should be easy to hit as long as the fairway is found off the tee. There will be plenty of tee shots that do not find the fairway and will just have to punch the ball as close to the green as possible. Bunkers protect the left side, and another small one in the back-right. Green Size: 25x25 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 8: Par 3, 171 Yards
Approach: Another approach to a long and narrow green. This one covers a yardage range the other two didn't. The other two had one that was long and one that was short, this one is right in the middle. A mid-iron approach to a green with bunkers protecting most of the front of the green and the back-right. Good iron players will be able to score here, others should still be on or around the green but will be looking more at par than birdie. Green Size: 15x30 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 9: Par 4, 457 Yards
Off The Tee: Long hitters again can take out trouble on this hole. Trees on both sides can be taken out of play and then will bring more fairway into play. Average length hitters need to be accurate to keep it away from the trees. They especially need to stay away from the right trees or they'll have to shape it around the trees to get to the green.
Approach: A mid-iron approach to a large green with primary defense as the water from hole 1 that wasn't in play there but is in play here. There are also some small bunkers at the back of the green. This green is large though, so it shouldn't be difficult to hit. Good ball-strikers should be able to score here. Green Size: 30x20 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 10: Par 4, 465 Yards
Off the Tee: Short hitters may have an issue on this tee shot with trees, but most of the field shouldn't have to worry because they can carry any tree issues. The really long hitters may have to take a fairway wood off of this tee to make sure the ball doesn't carry or roll out into the water, otherwise that water is not in play here or on the approach. Accuracy with some length will be key so that the approach is slightly less difficult.
Approach: The third hole in a row with a mid-iron approach. There's a large bunker on the left and a small one on the right. The green is narrow, so those bunkers will be found if the approach isn't accurate. All-in-all, to score on this hole, accuracy from tee to green will be important. Green Size: 15x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, GIR, Scrambling, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 11: Par 3, 162 Yards
Approach: This hole rivals TPC Sawgrass' 17th island green, but plays a little easier even though it's longer. The reason for that is because the green is larger and there is a little extra room around the edges to miss, especially off the back. The hole isn't easy though, and plenty of balls will still find the water. Shots that find land will still have to avoid the two bunkers in the back and a small one in the front-right if they want any chance at scoring. Green Size: 30x20 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, GIR, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 12: Par 4, 406 Yards
Off The Tee: The most difficult hole on the course is made difficult by the tee shot. They have to carry the ball over water the entire flight of the ball. They can try to cut off more of the hole by going right, but the more right they go, the more water is in play. If they choose to take the water completely out of play, they risk missing left and having a very long approach which then brings water back into play again. For those interested, a straight shot from the tee to carry the water in front of the green is 345 yards, so don't be surprised if we see Bryson try to take that on if they get some wind help or move the tee box up a little.
Approach: Assuming they keep the ball out of the water, the approach will be simple for the most part. Unless it's a bad miss left, it will just be a wedge into a large green. Water is in the front and bunkers are on the left, but with wedges the water shouldn't be an issue. If they miss badly left off the tee, then the water will become a problem. This will be an interesting hole because a good drive will set up a great birdie look, and a bad drive makes bogey or worse likely. Green Size: 30x25 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 13: Par 4, 472 Yards
Off The Tee: Bunkers are in play off the tee, so depending how far they can hit it will determine where they'll target off the tee so they can avoid landing in the bunkers. A long bunker shot to the green has bogey written all over it, so staying out of them is the main key on this tee shot.
Approach: Once again, a mid-iron approach, but the green is much more generous than the last couple. There are bunkers short-left and on the right side that will be in play because of the length of the approach, and especially if pins are tucked by them. We may also see misses go long in order to avoid the bunkers. Anything on the green will be good enough on this hole. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 14: Par 3, 205 Yards
Approach: Another par 3 that has water in play on the approach. The water is the main defense, but the bunker in the back will be in play too. Long-iron accuracy will be key here and par will be a good score. Green Size: 30x15 Yards
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance
Hole 15: Par 4, 395 Yards
Off The Tee: The fairway here is narrow, but there's plenty of room to miss. Very long hitters will need to take fairway wood off the tee to avoid running through the fairway into the trees. This should be a fairly easy tee shot leading to an easy approach.
Approach: A wedge approach to a wide green. The only issue with the approach could be trees if they hit it too far down the fairway. As long as they have a look at the green, they should take dead aim at the flags and fill it up with birdies. The water and bunkers are not in play from this distance. Green Size: 30x15 Yards
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 16: Par 5, 530 Yards
Off The Tee: There are some trees in play off this tee, but even average swings off the tee will avoid tree trouble. Long hitters will have the advantage here because they will take the larger trees out of play, in addition to the shorter approach to the green. The fairway bunkers on this hole are only in play for a lay up if anyone attempts to do that.
Approach: A fairway wood or potentially a hybrid to this narrow green. It will be very difficult to hit this green in two, so short games will be on display here. Bunkers protect the front, left, and right sides, so if they aren't confident in their bunker play they will probably hit it long. This is not a long hole, so there won't be much laying up. Green Size: 15x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 17: Par 4, 505 Yards
Off The Tee: This is a hard hole to score on because of the length. The tee shot is not hard. There are some trees on the hole, but the swing has to be really bad to have tree trouble. Swing hard and play it wherever it ends up here.
Approach: The approach is not really difficult either, it is just long. Long-irons into this green that's protected on the left and front-right. They'll find these bunkers often with pins in the front. The green is large, so they should be able to hit it with decent shots, but par is still a good score because others will be missing the green and scrambling. Green Size: 20x35 Yards
Advantage: Driving Distance, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 18: Par 4, 453 Yards
Off the Tee: They have to stay away from the water on this tee shot, which brings fairway bunkers on the right side into play. An accurate tee shot is important to finish the round. It will not be good to play from a fairway bunker with water lurking on the approach.
Approach: The final approach is another mid-iron to another long but narrow green. Water protects the entire left side, and they also have to avoid the bunker that is short-right and the one that is in the very back. Keeping bogey off the card will be the key to finishing off the round. Green Size: 20x30 Yards
Advantage: Driving Accuracy, Ball-Striking, GIR, Bogey Avoidance
Conclusions
Driving Distance is a game changer on many holes on this course. There is not a ton of trouble lurking on holes off the tee other than a couple with water, so being closer to the hole without anything in the way to the green is obviously an advantage. In addition, on a handful of holes, the longer hitters are able to remove tree and bunker trouble by being able to carry it past the trouble.
On the holes where distance isn't the advantage, great overall ball-strikers will take control. Hitting the ball with decent length and also mostly straight will help avoid the water, trees, and bunkers that are lurking on a lot of the holes and give great looks at the greens.
Many of the approaches will come from mid-range because the course is pretty long. Hitting Greens in Regulation, especially from the 150-175 yard range will give these guys the best chance.
Scoring may not be low because of the approach distance mentioned above, so avoiding bogey will be important to stay in contention.
Other stats to consider: SG: Approach, Scrambling, SG: Off The Tee, Driving Accuracy, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2022 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
