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Rob Giltner breaks down some DraftKings DFS pivots, value plays and sleepers for the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Daily fantasy golf advice on under-owned golfers and who to avoid for your lineups.
Hello RotoBallers, my name is Rob Giltner and in this article, you will find my top PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. I am excited to join RotoBaller and assist in any way possible to help make us all some money in DFS!
Pivoting can be easily defined as shifting from a highly owned golfer to a less owned golfer at a similar price point. Pivoting helps create leverage in DFS. Leverage allows us to gain an advantage over the field in GPPs. This Leverage increases our chances to win a tournament. In GPP DFS, we are competing with thousands of other entries. Pivoting and creating leverage helps separate ourselves from these other entries.
The separation allows us to maximize our chances of winning a GPP. An example of this would be if golfer A is $9,000 and 30% owned, and golfer B is $8,900 and 10% -- we could pivot off golfer A and go to golfer B for the leverage. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Waste Management Phoenix Open: DFS Lineup Pivots
Pivot off Scottie Scheffler ($9,100) to Sam Burns ($(9,300)
Scottie Scheffler is currently projected to be one of the highest owned golfers in the field this week. The 25-year-old Texan arrives in Scottsdale in good form. At The Farmers Insurance Open, Scheffler gained 5.7 strokes on approach and 5.9 strokes tee-to-green. Scheffler has also played at this event twice, resulting in a missed-cut and a seventh-place finish. However, his ownership is a lot to take on in a talented field. Scheffler is sandwiched between talented golfers such as Sam Burns, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, and Louis Oosthuizen. While Scheffler has a lot of upside, it is likely his upside is not as pronounced compared to others in his price range.
Sam Burns is currently projected to be almost half the ownership of Scottie Scheffler. Burns does not have Scheffler’s current form, but he does offer a severe ownership discount. Burns has lost an uncharacteristic 3.5 and 1.3 strokes on approach in his last two starts. However, Burns has had a better career than Scheffler. Burns ownership suggests he is a large underdog compared to Scheffler. While Scheffler may be in better form, the ownership range between these two golfers should not be as broad. It may be a good option to Pivot off Scheffler to Burns and receive the leverage in GPPs.
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Pivot off Webb Simpson ($8,600) to Mathew Fitzpatrick ($8,700)
Webb Simpson returns to Scottsdale this week in slightly poor form. At The Sony Open, where he has good course history, Simpson lost 4.1 strokes off-the-tee and 2.8 strokes on approach. Simpson’s high ownership is largely due to his course history at TPC Scottsdale. He won this event in 2020 and has five top-ten finishes. With that said, Simpson is one of my favorite fades this week. While he has had some decent results in the past few months, Simpson’s ball-striking is not where it has been during the highs in his career. He has only gained strokes on approach in five of his last 11 starts. In the past, Simpson’s approach play is usually very consistent. For this reason, it could be best to pivot off a popular Webb Simpson.
Mathew Fitzpatrick could be an excellent GPP play this week. He is a logical pivot off Webb Simpson. Fitzpatrick comes to TPC Scottsdale for the first time, but his game should enjoy this course. He excels off-the-tee and comes in with great form. Last week at Pebble Beach, He gained 11.7 strokes total, highlighted by gaining 3 strokes tee-to-green. Fitzpatrick is also known as a great putter; he leads in the field in strokes gained putting on Bermuda surfaces. These factors contribute to make Fitzpatrick a great pivot with his low ownership.
Pivot off Si Woo Kim ($7,500) to Russel Knox ($7,300)
Si Woo Kim enters this week off two straight top 15 finishes. Kim has ridden a strong tee-to-green game, along with a hot putter in those two starts. His form is likely contributing his ownership to be one of the highest in his price range. However, Kim does not have great course history at The Waste Management Open. In five starts, Kim has three missed cuts and has a 50th place finish last year. Kim is known as a volatile golfer, at high ownership that volatility may not be worth the risk.
Russel Knox is currently projected to be under five percent owned. Knox has a more favorable course history. In his last three starts at this event, Knox has three made cuts and a 10th-place finish in 2019. Knox also enters this week in good form. At The Sony Open, Knox recorded a top 10 finish and gained 5.1 strokes on approach. Last week at Pebble Beach, Knox gained 4.3 on approach and 4.4 strokes tee-to-green. With better course history and form, Knox may be an ideal pivot off a highly owned Kim.
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