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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings! This week, the PGA event is The WGC-Dell Match Play.
This event offers a unique approach to DFS. First, we need to be mindful to not roster golfers in the same group. Since only one golfer can get promoted from his group, rostering two golfers in the same group offers a negative correlation. Many DFS players will attempt to roster golfers who are most likely going to win their group. This is a solid strategy. However, it's very difficult to predict group winners. This week it may be best to roster lower seed golfers in perceived tough groups. With everyone trying to target "weak" groups, it could be advantageous to target tougher groups to find leverage.
Finally, because of the short week and lack of reliable ownership, I will not be writing about possible fades. I will focus on golfers who will likely be low-owned and present high upside. Good luck!
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The WGC-Dell Match Play: DFS Lineup Pivots
Tyrell Hatton ($9,200) Is in one of the most difficult groups. His group 13 has Daniel Berger, Christian Bezuidenhout, and Si Woo Kim. This should keep his ownership low. Hatton has had a strong March. He kicked things off with a second-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He followed that up with a 13th-place finish at The Players Championship and a 21st-place finish at The Valspar Championship. Hatton seems to enjoy match play. In his last two starts at this event, he has won his group and has two top ten-place finishes. His combined form and history makes Hatton a great play at possible low ownership.
Talor Gooch ($7,700) is in an opportunistic spot being in group 9. Gooch is paired with Bryson Dechambeau, Lee Westwood, and Richad Bland. With Dechambeau’s injury concerns, that could leave Gooch the best player in the group. Gooch finished in seventh place at the Arnold Palmer. He excelled that week tee-to-green and on approach. If he continues that form into this week, he could contend. While this is his first time playing this event, Gooch has upside to win his group and advance in the tournament.
Bubba Watson ($7,200) is in another very difficult group. Watson is is paired with Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson, and Brian Harman. As mentioned earlier, one strategy I am targeting this week is focusing on the perceived difficult groups and avoiding rostering many chalky players from the “easier” groups. Watson won this event in 2018. He beat Justin Thomas in the semi-finals and then Kevin Kinser in the finals. Watson missed the cut last week at a course he has had success at as well. Possible recency bias and being in a difficult group will likely make Watson a very low-owned play.
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Ian Poulter's ($6,600) performances in the Ryder Cup are well known. He has also played well at this event. In 2018 Poulter finished in fifth place and lost to eventual runner-up, Kevin Kisner. He also arrives in Austin in decent form. Poulter gained 2.4 strokes on approach and 4 strokes tee-to-green at The Players Championship. Poulter is in a tough group, he is paired Scottie Scheffler, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood. While the group will be challenging, it does help in lowering Poulter’s ownership. Lastly, Poulter excels on Pete Dye Courses. He ranks 11th in the field in strokes gained total and 10th in DraftKings points.
Matthew Wolff ($6,200) is not for the faint of heart. He is priced near the minimum and for good reason. Wolff has not played well this year. He has yet to gain strokes tee-to-green in 2022. However, match-play is a great opportunity to get out of his slump. With the threat of a big number damaging his round gone in match-play, Wolff can swing freely. If you are looking for any other reason to play him, he has gained strokes putting in three of his last four tournaments.
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