PGA DFS DraftKings Pivots: Sleepers and Value Picks- The Valspar Championship

March 16, 2022

Rob Giltner breaks down some DraftKings DFS pivots, value plays, and sleepers for the 2022 The Valspar Championship. Daily fantasy golf advice on under-owned golfers and who to avoid for your lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings! This week, the PGA event is The Valspar Championship. We had a chaotic week last week at The Players Championship. For the players that finished their tournament on Monday, they have a quick turnaround for The Valspar Championship. Many players documented how tiring the conditions were last week. Because of the exhaustion, fitness will be something to monitor this week.

The conditions this week will be much better. It could present an opportunity to capitalize on some recency bias. A golfer who missed the cut last week could present some upside this week based on the fact that he had to play in difficult conditions at The Players Championship.

Recency bias could also work for a golfer who had a good week at The Players Championship. If a golfer had a good finish last week and played in the better of the conditions, his result could be inflated.

The Valspar Championship: DFS Lineup Pivots  

Pivot off Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,000) to Bubba Watson ($8,800)

Matthew Fitzpatrick will likely be very highly owned for the second consecutive week. He burned many at The Players Championship with a missed cut. However, that could largely be due to being on the wrong side of the draw. Fitzpatrick had to play during the toughest of conditions. Still, Fitzpatrick is a tough sell at high ownership. He has only played The Valspar Championship once in 2018. That week he missed the cut and only gained strokes off-the-tee. Lastly, with 24% of approach shots coming from the 175–200-yard range, Fitzpatrick ranks 75^th in the field in that category over the last 24 rounds.

Bubba Watson also had to play in the most difficult conditions at The Players Championship last week. He shot the round of the day in round two; a bogey-free 68. While Watson struggled in rounds three and four, he arrives at a venue he has had success at. At the Innisbrook Copperhead course, Watson ranks first in strokes gained total, second tee-to-green, and sixth in DraftKings points. At less ownership, Watson has higher upside than Fitzpatrick.

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Pivot Off Keegan Bradley ($8,400) to Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900)

Keegan Bradley is currently projected to be the highest owned in his price range. His fifth-place finish at The Players Championship and his course history at this event could be contributing to his inflation. While not as strong as field, Bradley is priced $1500 higher than he was last week. Bradley is known as a volatile golfer, and we don’t receive much leverage when he’s priced and owned so highly.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout took the week off last week. Lucky for him, he did not have to withstand the grueling weather that took place at The Players Championship. Bezuidenhout is currently flying under the radar. He has not played this event before but should fit nicely. He is good around the greens and an excellent Bermuda putter. Lastly, Bezuidenhout ranks 20^th in the field tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds. At more than half the projected ownership of Bradley, Bezuidenhout could offer some leverage.

Pivot Off Denny McCarthy ($7,400) to Mito Pereira ($7,200)

 Denny McCarthy has played The Valspar Championship twice, highlighted by a ninth-place finish in 2019. That could be the rationale for his projected ownership. Unfortunately for McCarthy, he is not in good form. He has lost strokes tee-to-green in five straight events. He has also gained strokes on approach once in his last five tournaments. It may be best to look elsewhere from McCarthy.

Mito Pereira is currently projected at a similar number to McCarthy. However, Pereira seems to offer a higher upside. While this will be his first start at The Valspar Championship he should fit nicely.  He ranks 13^th in the field in proximity from 175-200 yards and is second in scrambling. Pereira came on tour with a lot of hype but it is hard to ignore what he did on the Korn Ferry Tour. Look for Pereira to contend this week.

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