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Rob Giltner breaks down some DraftKings DFS pivots, value plays and sleepers for the 2022 American Express. Daily fantasy golf advice on under-owned golfers and who to avoid for your lineups.
Hey RotoBallers, my name is Rob Giltner and I'm excited to join the incredible RotoBaller PGA crew this year. In this article, you will find my top PGA DFS Pivots for Draftkings for The American Express. I pumped to assist you in any way possible to help make us all some money in DFS!
Pivoting can be easily defined as shifting from a highly-owned golfer to a lesser-owned golfer at a similar price point. Pivoting helps create leverage in DFS. Leverage allows us to gain an advantage over the field in GPPs. This Leverage increases our chances to win a tournament. In GPP DFS, we are competing with, at times thousands of other entries. Pivoting and creating leverage helps separate ourselves from these other entries.
The separation allows us to maximize our chances of winning a GPP. An example of this would be if golfer A is $9000 and 30% owned and Golfer B is $8900 and 10%, we could pivot off golfer A and go to golfer B for the leverage. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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The American Express: DFS Lineup Pivots
Pivot Off Talor Gooch ($9,700) to Tony Finau ($10,200)
Talor Gooch is currently projected to be one of the highest-owned golfers in the field. This is likely due to his good course history at this event. In four starts, Gooch has not missed a cut and has a top-five finish. The 30-year-old American also picked up momentum this fall by having three top fives and a win at The RSM Classic. Gooch’s approach game led him to his strong fall swing. Gooch gained an average of four strokes on approach during this time. However, in his last two tournaments, Gooch has only gained on average .65 on approach. While these past two events could be an outlier, I am willing to pivot off Gooch with the idea he could be regressing with his irons. It may be the time to sell on Gooch.
Tony Finau is getting overlooked as he is priced between Patrick Cantlay and Sunjae Im. Finau arguably has stronger course history at The American Express. He finished in fourth-place last year while gaining 9.4 strokes tee-to-green. Over the last two years, Finau has had more wins, top 10s, and made cuts than Gooch. While Finau is priced higher than Gooch, the ownership discount will likely be substantial. This difference makes Finau an excellent pivot option.
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Pivot Off Seamus Power ($9,500) to Will Zalatoris ($9,100)
Seamus Power’s strong play has not gone unnoticed. He has five top 15s in his last six starts. Power has also played The American Express three times, highlighted by an 11th-place finish in 2018. Although he has strong recent form, there is evidence to suggest he is overvalued. Before the spring of 2021, Power only had three top 10s in his career on the PGA Tour. The Irishman has excelled tee-to-green and on approach over the last eight months. However, he lost strokes on approach last week at The Sony Open. His third-place-finish at Waialae was attributed to the 5.2 strokes he gained putting. Power has not shown the type of back class that should warrant owning him at high ownership and salary.
Will Zalatoris has had poor recent form. We last saw Zalatoris compete at The Mayakoba Classic, where he had a missed cut. His current form is likely to cause a single-digit ownership number. However, Zalatoris has strong back class. He has three top 10s in majors early in his young career. I do not think many would have guessed at this time last year, that Power would be more expensive and higher owned than Zalatoris.
Pivot off Hayden Buckley ($7,200) to Andrew Putnam ($7,100)
For a golfer in the $7000 range, Hayden Buckley is projected to be highly owned. Buckley had two top 10s this past fall and 12th place-finish at The Sony last week. Buckley has been very inconsistent early in his career. He has three missed cuts out of seven starts. His ownership this week could be a case of recency bias. A golfer at this stage of his career, like Buckley, is not worth owning at high ownership.
There is a lot to like about Andrew Putnam this week. In his last four starts at The American Express, Putnam has four made cuts and had a T10 in 2020. Putnam could also be trending with his ball-striking. In his past two starts, he has gained strokes consecutively tee-to-green. He has not accomplished that since March of 2021. Lastly, the putting surface this week will play more like a Poa surface. Putnam ranks 12th in the field putting on Poa.
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