PGA Course Preview for the 2025 Valero Texas Open: Scouting the Routing

Although many of us in the golfing industry maligned the exclusion of Match Play in the current PGA rota, one tournament, in particular, has received a noticeable bump in star power, looking for one last competitive run before teeing it up in next week's Masters.

Ordinarily considered a tame opening act for the year's first Major Championship, the Valero Texas Open now features a field with eight of the OWGR's Top 25 -- an exciting prospect not just for the city of San Antonio, but for golf bettors looking for one last data point ahead of Augusta. The course they'll face this week is far from a mid-major cupcake either, as TPC San Antonio has routinely ranked inside of the top 15 in Scoring Difficulty on the PGA Tour.

Before we get into the illustrious odds board on tap for golf bettors later in the week, this piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set you up to make the crucial decisions necessary before the market shifts later in the week. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on TPC San Antonio and the 2025 Valero Texas Open!

The Golf Course

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) - Par 72; 7,438 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Akshay Bhatia (-20) over Denny McCarthy (playoff)
• 2023 - Corey Conners (-15) over Sam Stevens
• 2022 - J.J. Spaun (-13) over Matt Jones and Matt Kuchar
• 2021 - Jordan Spieth (-18) over Charley Hoffman
• 2019 - Corey Conners (-20) over Charley Hoffman

TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 31.3 yards; 12th narrowest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 297.2 yards; 14th highest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 56.2%; 10th lowest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.31; 9th lowest on Tour
  • Rough Penalty -- 0.11; Lowest on Tour
  • Non-Rough Penalty -- 0.48; 4th highest on Tour
  • Missed FW Penalty Fraction -- 2.3%; 12th lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.020); 11th toughest on Tour

After four days in Houston which afforded bombers ample room to operate off of the tee, TPC San Antonio provides a much more nuanced driving test for the game's best. Similar to what we saw last week, the rough around this Greg Norman venue is as benign as you'll ever see on the PGA Tour: ranking inside the bottom five in rough penalty in all but one season since 2015.

However, for players with dispersion patterns wide enough to miss both the fairway and intermediate cuts of rough, TPC San Antonio begins to bear its true teeth. From dense treelines to rocky outcrops and lowland Texas brush, peril is lurking everywhere you look outside of these manicured confines. Over the last eight seasons, only Sedgefield, Innisbrook, and The Renaissance Club have issued harsher penalties to missed fairways outside of the rough lines.

This punitive approach to exceptionally wayward tee shots provides a lot of context for the recent successes of Corey Conners, Matt Kuchar, Lucas Glover, and Kevin Streelman (all of whom rank inside the top five in SG: Total here over the last five seasons). With only four of the 10 par 4's here measuring over 450 yards, distance won't be nearly the same asset as we saw around last week's demanding set of two-shotters in Houston.

Instead, I'll be leaning far more into accuracy-intensive metrics like Fairways Gained and Good Drive Percentage, as priority one around this Greg Norman design will be to avoid the hazardous waste areas lurking around every corner.

TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 59.7%; 6th lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.028); 7th toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • <125 yards (accounts for 27.6% of historical approach shots)
  • 150-175 yards (20.2)
  • 175-200  yards (18.4%)

With a past champions list that includes Corey Conners (x2), Jordan Spieth, Akshay Bhatia, and Charley Hoffman, you can bet that approach play ranks as one of the top through-lines among TPC San Antonio's most prolific performers. In fact, over the last seven Valero Texas Open iterations, only J.J. Spaun (+2.8), managed to attain this title whilst gaining less than 7.5 strokes with his iron play.

That sort of ball-striking upside hasn't manifested without a few warning shots of incoming form, either, as each of the last nine Valero Champions entered the week having gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach in one of his last three prior starts.

In terms of specific proximity ranges to account for, TPC San Antonio isn't what I'd call a "specialist" course. Only one 25-yard range has historically crested the 20% mark in approach distribution (150-175), and only the 75 to 100-yard range comes in substantially above its year-long baseline.

Wedge play is the one specific stat I'll be paying the most attention to at a micro-level, as over 27% of historic approach shots have come from inside 125 yards (5.5% above Tour Average), but generally, this is a week where I'll be leaning on more all-encompassing iron stats (SG: Approach, Opportunities Gained, Green in Regulation Rate, etc.). Players will have to hit a multitude of different clubs into these greens over the course of the week, so long-term prowess throughout the bag is much more meaningful than an elite ability in one particular subset of approach play.

TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 58.7%; 1.2% above Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.050); 3rd toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (-0.009); 11th toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (+0.052); 7th easiest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (-0.003); 12th toughest on Tour

Although the Valero isn't the first tournament that comes to mind when ranking the PGA Tour's most demanding tee-to-green tests, a sub-60% green in-regulation rate does point to a venue where even the game's most reliable ball-strikers will have to lean on their short games. In my modeling, I'm treating TPC San Antonio much like how I treated Memorial Park last week -- as the difficulty around the green complexes here is largely dependent on where you leave yourself.

With the surrounding overseeded rough measuring just 2.25" in length, TPC San Antonio's rough difficulty rates out very similarly to a venue like Houston last week or PGA West earlier this year -- simply not enough variables to test the best players in the world. From the more tightly mown fairways, it gets a bit tougher to create consistent outcomes, but the bunkers have historically stolen the show when it comes to the greenside hazards that players fear most in the Alamo City.

Since 2015, only Riviera and PGA West have featured a lower sand save percentage -- so unlike most weeks on the PGA Tour, an approach shot that ends up in one of these greenside bunkers will be a true sweat for those of us refreshing shot tracker. This is one of the few weeks all year where Sand Saves will be a true tie-breaker in my modeling (superseding general short-game metrics like SG: Around the Greens or Bogey Avoidance), as not only are the bunkers difficult here around TPC San Antonio, but only one green on the entire property (9), goes unguarded by these treacherous traps.

TPC San Antonio by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- Poa Trivialis overseed
• Stimpmeter: 11
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.9% (0.2% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.002); 14th toughest on Tour

Although it's never a good idea to completely undersell the value of a hot putter, TPC San Antonio has done a good job historically of deemphasizing putting performance within its layout. Ball-striking has outweighed putting in predictiveness by a factor of over 3:2, and these slower, relatively benign green surfaces do rank as some of the easiest to putt on from inside of 15 feet.

Unlike next week, I don't believe the greens here in San Antonio are nearly nuanced enough to require a prolific historic track record to navigate, and we've routinely seen some pretty substandard putters perform well above baseline here in recent years (Corey Conners, Sam Stevens, and Aaron Rai immediately come to mind). I will be weighing recent proficiency on similarly overseeded green complexes (there have been a lot over the last two months), but don't let Valero's relative lack of stature fool you: this is far from a putting contest. I'd much prefer to lean on more predictive metrics (listed below) and play the odds that at least a few of my guys can find the requisite touch required on these in-exacting surfaces.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Recent Approach Form (using general stats like SG: Approach, Birdie Opportunities Created, Greens in Regulation, etc.)
• Driving Accuracy/Good Drive %
• Sand Saves
• Par 5 Scoring/Birdie or Better Percentage
• Recent Putting Splits on Overseeded Poa Greens (most notably: Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, PGA West)

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Jordan Spieth

Jordan Spieth with a truly Spiethian birdie playing from the middle of nowhere. 🤌😳

🎥 @PGATOUR, ESPN+pic.twitter.com/8Zia2iAWPL

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 22, 2025

From Corey Conners’ three consecutive top 10 finishes to end the Florida Swing, to J.J. Spaun and Akshay Bhatia coming second and third respectively at the PLAYERS Championship, the lead-in to this year’s Valero Texas Open has been very kind to many of its recent champions. While Jordan Spieth doesn't quite have that kind of catalog of recent results, signs are beginning to appear for the 2021 Champ here in San Antonio.

Spieth has recorded two top-ten finishes in his last five starts (WM and Cognizant), which already matches his top 10 total from last year, but maybe more importantly still, are the recent trends in his ball-striking. Since the turn of February, he's navigated four of the Tour's most demanding driving tests in TPC Scottsdale, Torrey Pines, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National -- gaining strokes off of the tee in each event, while also recording two of the best twelve iron performances of his entire career in Scottsdale (+6.9 Strokes Gained: Approach), and last week at the Valspar (+7.6).

This incoming tee-to-green form is particularly exciting for Spieth fans as we approach three of his best historical venues: TPC San Antonio, Augusta National, and Harbour Town. Here at the Valero, Jordan's already logged a win in 2021, a runner-up in 2015, and two tenth-place finishes ten years apart in 2014 and 2024. In fact, last year's tenth place finish marked the best ball-striking performance (+9.1), that we've seen from Jordan since the start of 2023 -- only coming tenth because of an extremely un Jordan-like performance around the greens (-3.1 strokes).

Since 2014, Spieth has lost strokes off the tee just once in San Antonio, he's gained an average of 4.4 shots with his irons, and logged three separate instances gaining 6.5 shots or more with his chipping and putting. Despite that, he's still being priced behind the likes of Patrick Cantlay (tournament debutante), Tommy Fleetwood (still zero PGA Tour wins), and Hideki Matsuyama (lost strokes ball-striking in four of his last five starts), on the odds board. At a venue that has seen 10 multiple-time champions in its illustrious history, it's only fitting that the games preeminent Texan joins that list.

Daniel Berger

Daniel Berger sinks it from 52 FEET to move within one of the lead! 🔥

📺 Golf Channel | @TheRSMClassic pic.twitter.com/sUR5sRJBrl

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) November 24, 2024

Already a winner at another positional venue in the Lone Star State (Colonial; 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge), Daniel Berger has produced a recent form sheet very reminiscent to the top 20 player he became during that magical breakout summer. After a nearly two-year absence from the professional game with nagging back problems, his last six months have given us proof he's more than capable of returning to form.

Starting with a seventh-place finish at the Sanderson Farms last October, Berger has reeled off seven  top 25 finishes in 13 starts, including two runner-ups to only two missed cuts. In this field, only Michael Kim rates out better from a Strokes Gained standpoint over his last 50 rounds, and Berger ranks inside the top ten in virtually every one of my key ball-striking metrics (SG: OTT, Good Drive Percentage, Fairways Hit, Birdie Chances Created, and GIR %).

Zooming into the last two months, Berger pops as an even better statistical option. He's recorded finishes of 2nd, 12th, 25th, 15th, and 20th since the start of February, and he just recorded the best putting performance of his season (+4.0) on similarly over-seeded poa trivialis greens at TPC Sawgrass. I've already secured a position at 40-1, but numbers are moving quickly into the low-30s. Given the precision needed from tee through green around TPC San Antonio, I think this is a great spot for one of the game's foremost ball-strikers to crown his comeback with a fifth PGA Tour title.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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