PGA Betting Advice: Waste Management Open - Head-To-Head Selections

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (78-37-7), netting nearly 45 units of profit and a 67% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

*** Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel -130

Reasons I Liked the Play: We are essentially in the same exact boat with Billy Horschel as we were at Torrey Pines. Quality course history statistics are helping to compensate his recent form, although the American did show some resolve by posting three of four quality rounds in La Jolla. While it is possible that Horschel turns it around entirely in Arizona, I can't ignore his two missed cuts before the Farmers Insurance Open, nor can I overlook his 80 that he shot on Saturday.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Keegan Bradley and head-to-head stalwart don't exactly go in the same sentence. I want to think that TPC Scottsdale's ability to neutralize putting as a whole should benefit Bradley, but it is always difficult to fully buy into that narrative when the 33-year-old has shown the capacity to implode out of nowhere. I have Bradley as a -115 favorite by my math, which does give us a rather large edge of nearly six percent in terms of win probability, but I am not entirely sure how much I trust those numbers when given Bradley's potential for combustibility.

1.00 Unit to win 1.10

Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace -105

Reasons I Liked the Play: It is always challenging for me to place a proper value on players that play primarily overseas. I weigh my models with 100% PGA Tour statistics, so there are scenarios where a proven player can slip under my radar mathematically. I don't consider that to be the case in Arizona since Grace is getting a little extra respect in the market after finishing second here last season, but the South African has provided far too many duds on American soil for my liking.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: I'd have to imagine this isn't a price we will see last for long. Ryan Palmer has positive momentum with four-straight top-21 results, as where Grace isn't a known commodity for some of the more casual fans that have gotten into golf over the past few years. Maybe Grace's result at the Waste Management last season mixed with his salary increase of $500 on DraftKings will make what I am saying wrong, but I'd act quickly on this if possible. I don't fully trust Palmer to perform after letting both the Sony Open and Farmers Insurance Open get away from him during his past two events, and it doesn't help that this tournament has been a slip-up spot for three seasons in a row. However, Palmer has shown resolve at TPC Scottsdale before and should be -130 by my math.

1.15 Units to win 1.00

Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm -180

Reasons I Liked the Play: It is a pure number grab. I have Simpson at +130 for the matchup, so I'll gladly take a five percent implied probability edge when given the shot. Betting comes down to math, so even though we aren't the favorite to win this wager, we do have a long-term edge if we were able to make this exact bet 1000s of times.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: I am not a fan of making my play of the week an option that isn't projected to win. It doesn't help that the bet doesn't yield as much win equity as some of the other choices, but this is a wager that is best made for those that attempt to take every small edge possible.

1.00 Unit to win 1.60

Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: A lot of what Cameron Smith does well gets negated in Phoenix. Downgrade putting for everyone as a whole, but Smith's immense around the green game shouldn't play much of a factor at a venue that ranks above tour average in GIR percentage. Wolff over Smith is my second largest disparity in terms of pricing, but we will get into this a little deeper in the next section.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: I will be using this as my play of the week in the Vegas Report but wanted to release it early since I do believe we will see some movement before that article releases on Wednesday. I won't be counting this selection for official records in this article. Instead, it will go under the premium H2H tracker. When I can separate the two, I don't see a point in winning or losing twice on the same play. My models aren't in love with Smith's chances this weekend, and this seems as good of a spot as any to jump off the ship.

1.10 Units to win 1.00

Last Week's Results:

1-2-0 ( -1.10 Units)

Way too much volatility in last week's selections. Marc Leishman winning the tournament would have given us a victory over anyone, but we don't get extra bonus points for that. Our opponents in the other two matchups of Cameron Champ and Brandt Snedeker both finished in the top-16, which is far from what we want to see. All in all, it is just a small bump in the road and isn't a concern yet in making massive changes to my model. Our premium head-to-head wager in the "Vegas Report" article did get the victory, moving us to (6-2-1) on the year.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

7-4-0 (+3.40 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (6-2-1)

+3.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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