PGA Betting Advice: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Head-To-Head Selections

February 4, 2020

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best head-to-head plays for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (79-37-7), netting nearly 46 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

I am not in love with the event this week and will be shrinking my recommended exposure across the board.

Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman -115

Reasons I Liked the Play: It was hard to find too many inconsistencies in the betting market for Pebble Beach. A lot of the errors came from the sportsbooks overpricing golfers that I liked, which added value to bets I didn't necessarily want to have action on for the week. One play that did grade out as profitable, even if just marginally, was Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman. We are looking at only about a three percent edge in terms of implied probability, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this number move against us as the week stretches forward.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Charley Hoffman has been a statistical mess for over a year now, but the former UNLV golfer has started to show signs of life with three straight made cuts. Pebble Beach has never been the best natural fit for his game because of his poor around the green numbers and propensity to make bogey or worse, but Hoffman's short irons can provide damage on any given day.

0.70 Unit to win 0.67

Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay -180

Reasons I Liked the Play: Pure number grab. We have a price that is almost certainly going to drop by Thursday and will probably begin its fall shortly. Patrick Cantlay IS NOT someone I am actively looking to fade for this event, but +160 is frankly way too good of a value to ignore. I anticipate that we see this eventually drop to around +130, which is still a little higher than I have this projected mathematically.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: Grabbing value is good. But grabbing value on a losing wager is still bad in the short-term. I have Cantlay and Casey as my two safest cash-game plays for the week and have Cantlay correctly priced at -135. That gives us extreme value on Casey, but I am never a fan of releasing bets that only fit because of the casinos drastically mispricing a wager that is still projected to lose. I prefer using those plays for personal selections since nobody is playing my complete card weekly.

0.50 Units to win 0.80

Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ -120

Reasons I Liked the Play: Some will say that driving distance does matter at Pebble Beach, but I can't get myself to place much weight onto that statistic. The venue requires a lot of shots to be hit into a particular area, and that is something that negates Cameron Champ's edge off the tee. The young American has frankly been poor with his irons and terrible with his around the green game over the past season, and I think this might be a spot where we see him slip up from the hot run he has been providing.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: The margins are microscopic in general this week. Most of these bets are separated by about one to two percent of implied probability, so we have had to take a stance on some plays that just don't have a substantial edge as short-term wagers. I don't think many realize just how volatile Cameron Champ is for this event, but it doesn't take away from the fact that he has recorded seven straight made cuts.

0.60 Units to win 0.63

Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

This will be my premium head-to-head selection. I expect this number to start moving quickly and wanted to release it early in this article. I'll have a more in-depth preview on this play Wednesday in the 'Vegas Report.'

1.10 Units to win 1.00

Last Week's Results:

1-2-0 ( -0.55 Units)

It has been a slow past few weeks for us in this article, but multiple +160 victories of Webb Simpson in the last month have kept us hovering in the black. I'm encouraged that we are up nearly three units when only being two bets above .500, but I do think some small tweaks to my model might be in store. I pride myself on finding edges from opponents that are more likely to miss the cut, but five of our past six foes have finished inside the top-16. That is extremely sub-optimal handicapping, but it luckily hasn't hurt us too badly.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

8-6-0 (+2.85 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (7-2-1)

+4.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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