X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Overvalued Catchers: 2014 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Now that ESPN has released some of their early rankings for the 2014 season, we can begin to take a look at which players are overrated or underrated going in to draft season.  This will tell you where you can find value, and where you should just back away slowly. Today, my focus will be on the catchers, and more specifically those catchers I find to be overvalued by the expert community for the 2014 season.

Buster Posey

Steamer Projection: 635 PA, .304/.383/.490, 21 HR, 90 RBI, 81 R, 2 SB ESPN Rank: 40 (4th round) Where I'd Rank Him: 55-60 (6th round) By Cbl62 (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons The question isn't whether or not Buster Posey is the best catcher in the majors going into 2014 - he is (although long time RotoBaller Ryan Rufe might quibble with that in his 2014 Catcher Rankings) . Posey's got the youth, pedigree, history and projections to make him the clear #1 in the catching market in my opinion. The question, rather, is whether can you justify burning a fourth-round pick on him. To put what a  fourth-round pick means into perspective, Shin-Soo Choo is going late in the fourth round. David Price is going late in the fourth round, as is Chris Sale. A couple of picks after Posey, David Ortiz will go off the board. That is the opportunity cost of a late-fourth-round pick on Buster Posey, and it's a steep one. What this all means is that if you draft Posey, you essentially need him to put up that exact Steamer projection line in order to break even. He can't slump-- he can't have a bad month, and he definitely can't get injured. I'm always nervous about drafting a guy with as little wiggle room as that. Catching is an incredibly demanding position, and it can wear a player down over time. We saw that last year with Posey, who batted .325/.395 /.536 in the first half, but an anemic .244/.333/.310 in the second half, with his line drive rate dropping by an incredible 7%. None of this analysis even addresses the questions of injury and the lineup surrounding him. Aside from the horrific leg injury he suffered in 2011, Posey's been relatively healthy through his short career, but projecting health for a catcher is dangerous business, especially one who's had a pretty significant injury just recently. Likewise, projecting a 90-RBI, 81-R season for Posey seems a bit excessive to me, especially considering that he'll be hitting in a lineup that features a lot of question marks. If Pagan gets hurt again and Marco Scutaro, age 38, begins to show his age, 90 RBI won't be happening. If Hunter Pence regresses after a career season and Michael Morse fails to hit for power in SF's ballpark, Posey might well fail to score 81 runs. There are just too many questions surrounding Posey for me to take him that high in a draft. The talent is certainly there, but talent alone won't win you a fantasy championship.

Yadier Molina

Steamer Projection: 449 PA, .293/.346/.439, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 49 R, 4 SB ESPN Rank: 50 (5th round) Where I'd Rank Him: 65-70 (7th round) Much of what I said about Posey also holds true for Yadier Molina. As with Posey, he's an immensely talented player, and he even has a clear advantage in the quality of the lineup surrounding him, a fact which will buttress his RBI and R numbers. That said, he's also four years older than Posey, has less power and a much more extensive injury history. In each of the last four seasons, Molina has played fewer than 140 games, and at age 31, I expect that number to decline, not improve. I'd feel much better about my draft if I walked away with Brian McCann in the 12th round and Josh Donaldson, David Ortiz or Madison Bumgarner in the fifth, rather than putting all my chips in with Yadier Molina.

Matt Wieters

Steamer Projection: 516 PA, .249/.319/.425, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 59 R, 2 SB ESPN Rank: 140 (15th round) Where I'd Rank Him: 231-250 (24th-25th rounds) Every season, someone drafts Matt Wieters hoping that this will be the season he breaks out, and every year he disappoints. We've seen four full seasons from him now, we've seen his age-26 and age-27 seasons-- the supposed peak years-- and we've seen a lot of plate appearances. Here's what we haven't seen: a good player. He's got power, having hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons, but he also offers nothing in batting average, and that's just in the seasons he doesn't actively hurt you. I don't like his chances to do overperform with his counting stats either, and on that point, Steamer seems to agree with me. If you're going to take a bottom-tier catcher, there's no reason to waste a 15th-round pick on him. If you play in a standard league, I'm willing to bet Jason Castro (Steamer: 601 PA, .250/.332/.413, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 68 R, 3 SB) will still be there in the 20th, as will Miguel Montero (Steamer: 600 PA, .257/.345/.409, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 66 R, 1 SB) in the 24th. Given the difference in cost, I'd be hapy with either over Wieters at this point in his career.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Played Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Ben Rice

Smacks Two Homers To End Slump
Jorge Polanco

Hits Two More Homers, Drives In Five
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59 At Corales Puntacana Championship
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For Second At Corales Puntacana Championship
Beau Hossler

Finishes Tied For 60 At Valero Texas Open
Doug Ghim

Finishes Tied For 18 At the Valero Texas Open
Jordan Spieth

Finishes Tied For 18 At RBC Heritage
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For Eighth At RBC Heritage
George Kirby

"Feeling Great", Could Throw Again On Sunday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Returning To Starting Nine
Josh Lowe

Progressing Well, Could Play In Rehab Games On Saturday
Shane McClanahan

Begins "Throwing-Like" Activities
Patrik Laine

Remains Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi

On Track To Return Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Ruled Out For Game 5
Marcus Johansson

Returns To Action Tuesday
Cole Ragans

Won't Start On Wednesday
Dylan Moore

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hip Inflammation
Jonas Siegenthaler

Considered A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Brett Pesce

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Frederik Andersen

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech A Strong Candidate To Be An Immediate Starter
Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White Competing For Depth Role
New York Jets

Mason Taylor To Immediately Be Atop Jets Tight End Depth Chart
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Setting Up As Post-Hype Sleeper In 2025?
Denver Broncos

Dre Greenlaw Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold To Take Over 90% Of The Snaps
Tennessee Titans

Titans In No Rush To Trade Will Levis
Daulton Varsho

Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Tuesday
Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Says He Knows He's Ready To Start For Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Dax Hill
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To J.K. Dobbins
Seattle Seahawks

Jaren Hall Cut Loose By Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Compare Josh Simmons To Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater
Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Compared To Michael Thomas
Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Could Do It All For Broncos
Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Likely To Man The X Spot For Panthers
Green Bay Packers

Packers, Jaire Alexander Continue To Discuss Potential Reunion
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Discussed George Pickens With Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs To Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis
Washington Commanders

Matt Gays Signs One-Year Deal With Commanders
San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Signs Four-Year Extension With 49ers
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
Brandin Podziemski

Hits Six Treys During 26-Point Performance
Jimmy Butler III

Leads Warriors In Scoring Monday Night
Jarrett Allen

Has Double-Double, Six Steals In Blowout Win
Brandon Boston Jr.

Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Kelly Olynyk

Undergoes Heel Procedure
Aaron Nesmith

Probable For Tuesday's Action
Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF