X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Is Oneil Cruz a Breakout Player or Over-Hyped Rookie?

Oneil Cruz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz is a rising star but is he ready to break out or is he overhyped in fantasy baseball? Eric Samulski evaluates Cruz and advises fantasy managers how to view him.

Sometimes when your anticipation for something is so great, it's hard to evaluate that particular thing fairly and accurately. Sometimes we want a movie or a show or a person we're dating to be good, so we only see the positives (like people who claimed to like "Obi-Wan"). Other times, the waiting makes our expectations so high that the object of our anticipation can only pale in comparison (like Daisy to Gatsby).

We're no different when it comes to fantasy sports prospects, and perhaps no fantasy baseball prospect had the larger community anticipating the way Oneil Cruz did.

After debuting for two games last year and lacing a single 118 mph, the baseball community was dying to see what a full season of Oneil Cruz looked like.

However, the Pirates cared more about keeping what Oneil Cruz can do in Pittsburgh for years to come and held him down in the minors until his service time deadline had passed. Considering Cruz hit .333 with two home runs and a 1.067 OPS in five Spring Training games this year, many of us expected the wait for a promotion to be a short one, but Cruz bristled at being demoted and shifted to play the outfield briefly and got off to a poor start that had people doubting his ability to compete at the major league level.

Then Cruz started to rebound, hitting .256/.368/.500 in May with six home runs, 14 RBI, 20 runs scored, and three stolen bases. From June 1st until his call-up on June 20th, he hit .277/.357/.489 with two home runs and a drastically reduced strikeout rate. Not eye-popping numbers but ones that suggested his April failures were a mirage.

When he was finally promoted, he knocked in four runs in his first game and drove in seven total runs in his first four big league starts. The hype surrounding him was out of control. However, over the last two weeks, he's been hitting .209/.255/.442 with a 40.4% strikeout rate and people are starting to get concerned again. All of which begs the question: how good is Oneil Cruz really?

In this article, I'll break down Oneil Cruz's profile to suggest what type of fantasy asset he'll be for the second half of this season. I'll keep my analysis to fantasy-relevant categories, so even though his ridiculous arm strength is a clear asset in real baseball, it won't be part of our evaluation here. Again, we'll be looking at this solely from a redraft standpoint in discussing what his August to October value could be, not his future dynasty or keeper league potential.

 

Speed

Let's start here because it's the easiest to evaluate. Cruz has a 99th-percentile sprint speed, according to Statcast. In fact, his 30 ft/sec puts him sixth-fastest in the league with players who have at least 10 "competitive runs."

However, many people have suggested that home-to-first time is actually a better indicator of fantasy-relevant speed, so we can note that Cruz's 4.22 home-to-first time ranks 36th in the big leagues, tied with C.J. Abrams, Nicky Lopez, and Jose Ramirez. Still, any way you slice it, Cruz can run.

Yet, he has had an issue getting caught on the basepaths. This year, he had 11 stolen bases in Triple-A, but he was also caught stealing six times. So far in the big leagues, he's stolen four bases but been caught three times. Perhaps it has to do with a poor ability to get good jumps because his overall level of quickness should result in more stolen bases.

Also working against him is the fact that Pittsburgh ranks 18th in baseball in stolen bases attempted with 0.68 attempts per game. They rank 20th on the year in total stolen bases, with 39 in 90 games. Ke'Bryan Hayes leads the team with 16 stolen base attempts in 82 games, which is one attempt every 5.13 games. However, Cruz does have seven attempts in 26 games, which is one every 3.71 games, so perhaps Pittsburgh will be a bit more aggressive with him.

Either way, speed will be a component of Cruz's game, but his tendency to get caught mixed with his team's relative hesitancy to run means that he won't be your Jon Berti, Leody Tavares, or Jarren Duran, who goes on a massive hot streak and can win you the stolen base category. Given his current pace, maybe he steals 7-8 more bases this year, which is a solid contribution for your team.

 

Power

The power potential of Oneil Cruz is what is intoxicating to fantasy managers. He seems to have easy power in his wrists and forearms, which was on full display on his last big league home run.

That's a simple flick of the wrists that sends the ball flying. It's absurd.

Through his first 26 games this season, Cruz has a 13.1% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate, which are both above league average. In fact, if he had enough at-bats to qualify, his barrel rate would rank 22nd in baseball, right behind Rafael Devers and ahead of Max Muncy. Meanwhile, his hard-hit rate would be 64th, tied with Ketel Marte.

Despite the 118 mph max exit velocity we saw last year, Cruz has topped out this year at 113.8 mph off the bat, which is still 38th in baseball in hitters with over 50 batted ball events. All of which suggests that Cruz has real power in his bat and can deliver authoritative contact.

However, there are a few concerns when it comes to consistent power output. For starters, Cruz is currently posting a 49.2% groundball rate. This is after posting a 51.3% groundball rate in Triple-A. Those numbers are too high if you're hoping to get a big power output out of the 6'7" shortstop. Posting a 36.1% flyball rate means he's simply not hitting the ball in the air enough to drive it out of the park.

The other issue is that Cruz is spraying the ball all over the field. Now, that can be great for batting average (more on that later), but a 34.4% pull rate usually doesn't lead to tons of home runs. A low pull rate means that he's not maximizing his natural strength because he's not hitting the ball out in front of his front hip, with his arms in a stronger, bent position. When you hit the ball the other way, your arms are usually extended for plate coverage which means there is less force coming from your upper body. Additionally, to hit the ball away, you usually need to keep your front hip closed for longer to ensure plate coverage, which means your swing lacks the power derived from the aggressive torque of your hips that it gets when you attack an inside pitch.

Now, there are hitters who can hit for power with a pull rate this low. Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, and Rafael Devers are three that come to mind. However, it is much harder and relies on consistent barrel contact and raw natural power to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field or to center. Those three names in particular are three of the best hitters in all of baseball, so it's not crazy to think that they are capable of doing something that your average hitter cannot. Cruz does seem to possess a similar raw natural power, but the consistent hard contact to make the most of it is currently lacking.

To me, this all says that Cruz has real power potential but likely not the approach to make the most of it this season. He needs to drive the ball more to the pull side and add more consistent lift to his swing if he wants to maximize the raw power in his swing. As a result, I think we could maybe expect another seven or eight home runs from him in the second half.

 

Batting Average

Now we're getting into the potential issues for Cruz. The rookie is currently hitting .204/.240/.398 while also sporting a fine .281 BABIP. The big issue for him is his aggressive approach at the plate. Going into the All-Star Break, Cruz has a 36.5% strikeout rate and a 4.8% walk rate. Those are not appealing numbers.

His 39.2% O-Swing and 14.1% swinging strike rate also tells us the story of a player who is chasing pitches out of the zone too frequently. This is also backed up by the fact that his zone contact is a solid but not great 86.7% while his overall contact rate is 67.2%, which would be seventh-worst among qualified hitters, just below Adolis Garcia and ahead of Patrick Wisdom.

Now, Cruz has a higher zone contact rate than Wisdom and Garcia, and better SwStr%, so the profile is better than both of those players. In fact, you're really looking at a contact profile similar to what Byron Buxton is doing. Buxton has a 14.4% SwStr%, 81% zone contact rate, and 68.1% contact rate overall.

While it might seem great to be on par with Buxton, this version of Buxton is hitting .216 with a 29.9% strikeout rate. His strong high flyball rate and pull rate have helped offset his 2022 fantasy value since it's led to 23 home runs, but Cruz doesn't currently have the profile to make up for the poor plate discipline metrics with that kind of power output. If you took Buxton's current season but chopped off a good portion of his home runs and steals, you would not have a strong fantasy asset.

As the league has seen Cruz's aggressive plate approach, his strikeout rate has gone up.

He did post a 12.1% walk rate and 22.7% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year, so it's not unfathomable that he could make an adjustment this season. In fact, most of his minor league strikeout rates have settled around 25%, so continuing to sit near 40% seems unrealistic.

With that being said, he doesn't have a long track record as a patient hitter and the higher quality of pitching is something that could take more than just a few months to adjust to. As a result, we could easily be looking at a strikeout rate of around 30%, and it wouldn't be a shock if Cruz was just a .230-.240 hitter for the second half of the season.

 

Counting Stats

Here is where we get to the final issue working against Cruz: his team isn't particularly good. On the season, the Pirates are 28th in runs scored, 29th in batting average, and 28th in wRC+. Cruz has been hitting fifth in the lineup against righties but eighth against lefties, which is going to make it hard for him to consistently drive in or score runs.

That could be made even worse if the Pirates wind up trading away Bryan Reynolds. However, his current oblique injury might make that less likely.

If we were to extrapolate Cruz's current 17 RBI and 14 runs scored in 26 games across the likely 60 games that he'll play the rest of the way (out of a possible 69), you'd get 39 RBI and 32 runs scored. The RBI total seems a little high and is inflated by those strong first couple of games, so a small regression leads to not awful numbers but certainly not ones that are moving the needle much for your fantasy teams.

 

Conclusion

Based on the entire breakdown, I'd speculate that Oneil Cruz in the second half will hit .235 with eight home runs, 34 RBI, 30 runs, and eight stolen bases. If you use The BAT's rest of season projections, that's slightly worse than what you'd get from Trevor Story or Jeremy Peña and pretty similar to Luis Urias.

All of which suggests that this version of Oneil Cruz is not a breakout star that is going to guide your team to a title this year; however, he could be a fine MI option if you are not in desperate need of counting stats. As a result, I might be exploring a way to trade Cruz away in a redraft league since it's possible that another manager is bullish on his upside and thinks they're going to get an NL Rookie of the Year candidate for a few months.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF