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Many drafters spend prep time on their early picks and then reflexively take familiar names late, but they rarely deliver championships. Instead, let’s discuss some late-round fliers at running back, wide receiver, and tight end that are worth taking due to their upside, but that you won’t feel handcuffed to should there be a red-hot waiver wire move to be made.
Those seeking kicker or defense fliers, feel free to ask but I'd advocate skipping K/DEF and using the extra bench slots on late-round RB/WR fliers. Hitting on those positions is so valuable compared to stashing a top-flight kicker or defense, which can be adequately streamed.
For today’s purposes, we're using aggregate ADP data for half-PPR drafts from Yahoo, Sleeper, and RTSports as of 09/03/2023.
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Late-Round Fliers - Running Backs
De'Von Achane (MIA), RB44
Miami’s offensive upside rides with Tua Tagovailoa’s health and Achane’s versatility could fit right in with Mike McDaniel’s creativity. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. are capable runners with ties to McDaniel from their SF days, durability isn’t their strong suit. (Spoilers: JWJ is on IR now.) Mostert, now on the wrong side of 30, had only played 16 games once before (2019) and JWJ, who turns 28 this year, had never done so before.
I certainly wouldn’t bank on both going down but the Dolphins invested a third-round pick in Achane for good reason. The said reason may not manifest until 2024 when Miami moves on from one or both of the vets, but that’s why this is a flier article!
Achane’s incredible speed helped him score double-digit TDs in both ‘21 and ‘22 at Texas A&M, where he combined for 60 catches in those two seasons. He also housed a kick return in both years as well! He’s a threat anywhere on the field and that kind of upside around Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could go far.
*The price has likely risen with Jeff Wilson Jr. heading to the IR, but so do the chances of Achane making an early impact. He was week-to-week with a shoulder injury but should be good to go for Week 1 alongside Raheem Mostert.
Roschon Johnson (CHI), RB53
We won’t overweigh 2022’s results, but it showed Day 3 rookie RBs can make an immediate impact in the right spot. Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, and Isiah Pacheco all stepped up on offenses of varying degrees. We know the Bears are happy to run with Justin Fields, but also beefed up their offensive line and invested in pass-catchers. How does Johnson fit in?
Well, Chicago let David Montgomery go and only brought in D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer to pad out depth behind Khalil Herbert. As far as competition goes, Johnson has it relatively easy by NFL standards. Herbert looked great in a limited role behind Montgomery but a spread-the-love RB approach would give Johnson a chance to flash upside. If that doesn’t come early then you can move on.
I know much will be made about Johnson's lower draft capital and the crowded CHI RB room on a team that promises to pass more, but folks might be forgetting how strong of a runner Johnson was at college. I instantly bookmarked this tweet by @fball_insights where they charted Missed Tackles Forced per touch against Yards After Contact per carry for Power 5 RBs since 2014:
Missed tackles forced/touch & yards after contact/carry, P-5 RBs since 2014
Inspired by @QBLRyan https://t.co/oul5QSTYnF pic.twitter.com/WNTRrSahw0
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 27, 2023
Mr. Johnson is comfortably in the upper-right quadrant with Javonte Williams, Bijan Robinson, and current OSU stud, Miyan Williams. This doesn't guarantee similar success in the NFL but boy, if you're throwing later darts then it's a wonderful starting point.
Late-Round Fliers - Wide Receivers
Rashid Shaheed (NO), WR80
Shaheed made waves with a 44-yard TD in his NFL debut during a Week 6 loss to the Bengals. He followed that up with a 53-yard TD catch in Week 7 as we started to wonder whether he was simply a big-play trick or if there was more here.
Unfortunately, he barely saw action over the next month before his role increased in Week 12. From then on, he’d see at least four opportunities per game. That doesn’t sound like a lot, and yet Shaheed was the WR35 in standard formats in that window. That slides to WR38 in half-PPR and WR39 in PPR, for disclosure’s sake.
We’re unlikely to see elite passing volume out of the Saints, but they brought on Derek Carr and should be more effective through the air. Everyone loves Chris Olave, so then you have to ask yourself how a healthy Michael Thomas would alter Shaheed’s role. Then consider the odds of MT staying healthy.
Right, so give me Shaheed at this cheap price point now that NO has an offseason to work his big-play potential into the plan rather than moving on the fly. And hope that teams are still silly enough to attempt zone coverage on such a dynamic player:
Top WRs by YPRR
(Against Zone Coverage)5. Justin Jefferson (2.74)
4. Cooper Kupp (2.86)
3. Jaylen Waddle (3.00)
2. Rashid Shaheed (3.24)
1. Tyreek Hill (3.46)@FantasyPointsData pic.twitter.com/ILvIZhdtSz
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) July 20, 2023
Puka Nacua (LAR), WR100
The Rams had a 2022 campaign to forget, with Cooper Kupp’s devastating injury exposing how poor the WR corps was behind the superstar. The Allen Robinson II experiment did not work out and Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, and Tutu Atwell are role players rather than true No. 2 WRs. That gives Nacua a chance to rise early on, especially if the early buzz out of camp compounds on itself.
One of the distinguishing factors of a flier is that we should quickly learn whether there’s potential for relevant production this year or not. Between the preseason usage and the first week of play, the Rams’ pecking order at wide-out should hint at Nacua’s emergence.
*And now Kupp's early injury should present Nacua with better odds at early momentum. If he can flash early then perhaps he pushes for reps alongside Kupp down the road and winds up relegating Jefferson to WR3 sooner than I'd dreamed. We shall see, but get an early decision point on whether to continue stashing or not is clutch.
Calvin Austin III (PIT), WR115
As someone who thinks Pickett can make a leap, it’s sensible to see if someone else can sneakily elevate alongside him. We just referenced the failed AR era in LA and I doubt many suddenly believe in a renaissance for him in PIT. Meanwhile, Austin and his plus speed looks ready to make an impact after missing his rookie year with a foot injury.
Austin’s 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine was clocked at 4.32 seconds and can help stretch the field for Pickett and gang. But Austin can also get the ball on jet sweeps and out of the backfield. We saw the Steelers get creative with manufacturing touches for Chase Claypool and could involve Austin in a similar manner.
Late-Round Fliers - Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson (DAL), TE28
I'm changing it up and putting the later guy first. The Cowboys didn’t bring Dalton Schultz back, giving Ferguson a wide path to the starting role as rookie Luke Schoonmaker acclimates to the NFL. Schultz had a PCL injury early in ‘22 but was largely available to work ahead of Ferguson, but we got enough glimpses to get excited. Schultz missed Week 6 and Ferguson caught four balls for 40 yards and a touchdown.
While Schultz had two touchdowns on Thanksgiving, Ferguson made his own waves by hurdling Giants’ safety Jason Pinnock to pick up a spirited first down:
JAKE FERGUSON IS AN ATHLETE.
📺: #NYGvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/6zODjip4a7 pic.twitter.com/PJufp9PA2C— NFL (@NFL) November 25, 2022
No one loves Mike McCarthy’s involvement in play-calling but he wasn’t shy about getting Jermichael Finley involved. We can't act like the ceiling is dead before the games have even begun due to McCarthy's "aura."
Out of all tight ends with at least 15 catches in ‘22, Fergu6son’s 2.6 yards after contact per reception was third behind Chigoziem Okonkwo and Jonnu Smith. Both of them are exciting athletes with the ball, with Smith’s profile dampened by the lack of opportunity in New England. Ferguson didn’t register a single drop in 2022 and should have a chance at momentum within Dallas’ exciting offense.
Michael Mayer (LV), TE29
Mayer is starting to get some steam but remains well outside of the top 12 as the draft season approaches. He topped 800 yards in both 2021 and '22 for Notre Dame but he'll have to push through veterans in Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard for significant playing time.
Some may think Mayer is just another Foster Moreau, who many had high hopes about but Darren Waller kept him on the outside. Waller is gone and Mayer demanded a second-round pick versus a fourth on Moreau. Hooper is entering his eighth season but the Raiders need more receiving help than he can provide.
Drafters have punished Davante Adams for Jimmy Garoppolo's lower ceiling and injury threat, but the passing upside remains steady. Jimmy G certainly isn't taking off on a scramble! Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow are great possession guys and that may allow Mayer to work downfield. If Josh Jacobs sits out then that much more lies on the passing game, with a big lift to red-zone equity.
If Mayer takes off early and clearly operates as the pass-catching TE while Hooper rotates in and blocks, then you've got a nice piece in a passing offense. Vegas ran a 60/40 pass/run split last year but I must note they had the lowest rate of 12 personnel on first down in 2022 at 7%, per NFELO. Keep an eye on tendencies and how Mayer is deployed.
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