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Andy's NHL power rankings for the top-10 Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) candidates for the 2025-26 season. His top Hart Memorial Trophy candidates of March 2026 include Macklin Celebrini, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, more.
With the regular season in the final stretch, it is time to revisit our Hart Memorial Trophy power rankings.
In this piece, we will spotlight the current top-10 favorites for the Hart Memorial Trophy heading into the final month of the season. Since our last update in February, several players have entered the conversation, while others have made significant progress in our rankings. Be sure to also check out our updated Calder Trophy rankings from last week!
Who are the top-10 favorites for the Hart Trophy? Let's dive in! All statistics and records are updated as of March 18.
No. 10 - Matthew Schaefer, New York Islanders
The 18-year-old sensation continues to perform at an elite level and needs to be in the MVP conversation. Through his first 68 games in the NHL, Schaefer has found the back of the net 20 times and tallied 29 helpers. He has posted a +14 rating while logging 94 blocked shots with 29 hits.
While he enters the final stretch as the clear favorite for the Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year), he could earn a handful of MVP votes as well. The Islanders entered the 2025 season in rebuilding mode, and he (and another player later on our list) has nearly put the club on his back and single-handedly pushed this team into a playoff position.
According to MoneyPuck.com, the former first overall selection has generated a strong 59.5% On-Ice Goals%, placing him within the top 13 among all defensemen. But more importantly, a low 43.0% Off-Ice Expected Goals%, which trails only Morgan Rielly and Quinn Hughes.
This shows that not only does Schaefer generate high-end scoring chances when on the ice, but the entire New York offense is also far less productive without him driving play from the blue line. Additionally, his 25 created rebounds, per MoneyPuck.com, place him second among all defenders.
THE KID 🚨
Matthew Schaefer gets the Islanders on the board! 🎯 pic.twitter.com/EejK7kbwzH
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) February 27, 2026
No. 9 - David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins
The Bruins remain in the heart of the East playoff picture, and a major part of that is due to David Pastrnak's elite level of play. The winger currently sits seventh in total points (82) and ninth in total assists (56).
Since January 1, Pastrnak has been the backbone of this offense, scoring nine goals and adding 29 helpers over just 27 games played. In this stretch, the 29-year-old has held a +8 rating while logging 97 total shots on goal.
Under the hood, Pastrnak has generated an above-average 56% Corsi% and a stellar 60.9% On-Ice Goals%. However, where Pastrnak's MVP resume shines is when he is off the ice. According to MoneyPuck.com, the winger has generated a 41.3% Off-Ice Expected Goals%, placing him eighth among all forwards who have logged at least 1,000 minutes of ice time.
No. 8 - Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
While his teammate Matt Boldy has made a shot to enter the top 10, Kirill Kaprizov will remain the lone Minnesota Wild on our list. Kaprizov has turned in another impressive campaign and is once again sitting near the top of the NHL leaderboard.
Through 69 games, the Russian winger has found the back of the net 38 times (tied for the third most in the league alongside Boldy) and added 42 helpers. Overall, his 80 points place him ninth among all skaters.
The 28-year-old has generated an elite 18.9% Relative Expected Goals% and a 60% Fenwick, both of which are well above the average marks, with his Relative Expected Goals% mark sitting 12th among all forwards.
While Kaprizov has only tallied one point over his last three games entering Wednesday night before this brief skid, the winger was lighting up the scoreboard, tallying 10 goals over his last 12 games. Since January 29, Kaprizov has sat tied for second in goals, trailing only Kucherov and Cutter Gauthier.
No. 7 - Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
The other defenseman sitting on our list is the current favorite to take home the Norris, Zach Werenski. Werenski has played a major role in Columbus's second-half surge, as it now sits within striking distance of not only a Wild Card spot but also one of the top-3 positions in the Metropolitan Division.
Among defensemen, Werenski's 1.15 P/GP places him first at the position (who have played at least 55 games). He has totaled 69 points, 20 of which have come as goals.
His role on this team is massive as he has logged 43.2% of the team's total Share of Possible Ice-Time, according to MoneyPuck.com, placing him behind Minnesota's Hughes. Like Schaefer, Werenski's low 45% Off-Ice Expected Goals% further suggests his role in the team's offensive output.
Since January 1, Werenski has totaled 29 points (over 25 games).
No. 6 - Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars
Jason Robertson is on pace to smash his previous totals from the past two seasons and is emerging as a sleeper candidate for the Hart Trophy. In 2023 and 2024, Robertson posted back-to-back 80-point seasons while averaging 32 goals per season. In 2025, Robertson has already tallied 80 points (over 67 games) while scoring 36 goals, placing him eighth in the sport.
The Stars have been among the league's best teams since the Olympic break, and the 26-year-old has played a major role in their surge. Over his last 10 games, Robertson has scored four goals and tacked on another 10 helpers.
Per MoneyPuck.com, Robertson has generated an elite 60% Fenwick% (On-Ice Unblocked Shot Attempt%) while posting a dominant 72.5% On-Ice Goals%, which trails only Nathan MacKinnon. His underlying 67.4% On-Ice Expected Goals% sits first among all forwards and is nearly two points above the No. 2 player, Nikita Kucherov.
Jason Robertson hits the spin-o-rama to score his second of the night! 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/lhMAS878zg
— NHL (@NHL) March 13, 2026
No. 5 - Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
The lone goalie on our list is New York's Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin has been nothing short of incredible in the Islander net and has been the backbone of this team, while the previously mentioned Schaefer has been the spark.
Through 42 games played, Sorokin has posted a 25-15-2 record with a .914% SV% and a 2.49 GAA. His six shutouts continue to sit at the top of all netminders, with Joel Hofer's (five) sitting in the No. 2 spot.
While his level of play has dropped slightly since the start of February, as he has held a .907% SV% with a 2.67 GAA, he has continued to stack wins, posting a strong 7-2 record over this span.
Sorokin's 24.6 Goals Saved Above Expected places him second among all netminders, trailing only Logan Thompson's 24.8, according to MoneyPuck.com. However, his 19.1% Expected Goals Saved Above Average sits first among all netminders.
He is also just one of two goalies in the league who have a WAR above 4.0.
No. 4 - Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
The top four on our list have put themselves above the rest of the pack. Connor McDavid's MVP resume was already quite strong, and it may continue to grow as Leon Draisaitl (lower body) is slated to miss the remainder of the regular season. If McDavid can put Edmonton on his back and lead it to a top seed in the Western Conference without his "Robin," he may run away with this award.
Through 69 games, McDavid has tallied a league-leading 115 points with 37 goals and 78 assists. Since January 24 (the last 17 games), McDavid has been playing on another level, tallying seven goals with 23 helpers.
While his 60% Fenwick is slightly lower than two of the other names in the top group, his 41% Off-Ice Expected Goals% highlights the importance of his impact on the offense. However, one other player in the top group has an even lower score.
His 21.2% Relative Expected Goals% places him second among all forwards, trailing only Robertson.
No. 3 - Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks
Coming in the next spot is this season's breakout superstar, Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini has lifted a San Jose Sharks club that had no playoff aspirations back in October into the Wild Card race with only a month left to play.
Celebrini is currently fifth in points (95), but he will enter the top four very soon as he will pass Draisaitl's total (97) in the coming days. During this stretch, the 19-year-old has found the back of the net 35 times while tacking on 60 helpers.
However, unlike the other skaters on this list (outside of Werenski), Celebrini is not paired with another high-impact player. Celebrini is driving the entire San Jose offense at just 19 years old. On his team, the No. 2 skater (in terms of points) is Will Smith with a mere 45 points, 50 less than Celebrini.
Celebrini is also the only San Jose skater who has the 20-goal plateau.
As hinted at before, Celebrini has an incredible 39.6% Off-Ice Expected Goals%, placing him lowest among the MVP candidates listed here and third worst among all forwards, trailing just Connor Bedard and Tyler Bertuzzi. If the Sharks can sneak into the postseason, Celebrini should emerge as the favorite.
No. 2 - Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Sitting in the No. 2 spot on our list is Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon currently leads the league in goals (45) and is in the driver's seat to take home the Rocket Richard Trophy. His 110 points place him just behind Kucherov and McDavid, but his 1.69 P/GP places him second, only behind Kucherov.
Since March 1, MacKinnon has found the back of the net five times (in eight games) while tallying 13 points with a +6 rating and 33 shots on goal. Overall, his 291 shots on goal place him first among skaters by a drastic margin, as McDavid's 252 sit clearly in second place.
As expected, MacKinnon's underlying metrics are all elite, as his 63% Fenwick% matches him with the No. 1 player on our list, while his 72.9% On-Ice Goals% places him first among all skaters. However, his lower On-Ice Expected Goals% (64.8%) and Off-Ice Expected Goals% (50.2%) drop him just below our No. 1 candidate, as his impact "off" the ice is not as great as the current favorite to take home the MVP honors.
No. 1 - Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
While Tampa Bay has fallen down the standings over the past few weeks, Nikita Kucherov has not slowed down. Over his last 11 games, Kucherov has tallied 20 points, with eight of them coming as goals. Since the start of February, Kucherov has led the sport in points by a wide margin (29) while McDavid sits at a distant second with only 20.
Overall, the 32-year-old sits with 111 points over 62 games (37 goals) but is now within striking distance of McDavid's total and is on pace to surpass him given his recent level of play. His goal total places him within the top five among all forwards as well.
Like the other names on this list, Kucherov's MVP resume extends the traditional box scores. The winger has generated a 70.5% On-Ice Goals%, placing him fifth among forwards, while his 44.4% Off-Ice Expected Goals% trails only Kaprizov, McDavid, Celebrini, and Pastrnak on our list.
However, he is a standout with an elite Fenwick% (63%) and Corsi% (62%). He earns the slight edge over MacKinnon as his 44.4% Off-Ice Expected Goals% is much lower compared to MacKinnon's 50.2% Off-Ice Expected Goals%. Kucherov's overall impact on the Tampa Bay offense (and his dominant play over the past month and a half) has earned him the top spot on our list.
Kuch is on hatty watch... 21 minutes into the game 😭
THIS GUY IS UNREAL 🤯 pic.twitter.com/OxOx7aUTmB
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) March 18, 2026
On the Outside Looking In
- Matt Boldy, MIN
- Wyatt Johnston, DAL
- Sidney Crosby, PIT
- Mikko Rantanen, DAL
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB
- Cale Makar, COL
- Rasmus Dahlin, BUF
- Jack Eichel, VGK
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