NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (1/21): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

January 21, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for January 21st including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, January 21th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/21

• Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins (-130) - 5.5U
• New Jersey Devils vs. New York Islanders (-150)- 5.5U
• Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes - PPD
• Tampa Bay Lightning (-165) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets - 5.5O
• Winnipeg Jets (-130) vs. Ottawa Senators - 6.5U
• Montreal Canadiens (-121) vs. Vancouver Canucks- 6O
• Colorado Avalanche (-270) vs. LA Kings- 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Brayden Point, TB ($ 7,400 DK / $ 8,000 FD) - Point looks to be the best spend up option on the slate at the center position. In nine total games played against Columbus, Point has recorded seven goals and eight assists for 15 total points.  Point is off to a nice start to the season as he has one goal and two assists in his first two games of the 2021 season.
• Jack Hughes, NJD ($ 5,200 DK / $ 5,100 FD) - The Devils are a team that really lacked scoring threats last season but it seems as if a good chunk of their production could come from Jack Hughes. Hughes is on fire to start the season as he is coming off a two-goal effort against the Rangers and has notched six points in his first three games of the season.
• Josh Norris, OTT ($ 3,600 DK / $ 3,900 FD) - Norris is settling in nicely on this top Ottawa line and recorded his first goal of the season on Monday night against the Jets. Norris took a season-high six shots and with him seeing additional time on the power play, Norris will get plenty of scoring chances and opportunities.

Other centers to consider: Scheifele, Barzal, Nelson, Kopitar, Danault

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Steven Stamkos, TB ($ 8,200 DK / $ 8,500 FD) - Stamkos will be a regular play on every slate that he is on. He has two goals and three assists in just two games so far this season and will continue to be the key cog on this Lightning team.
• Ondrej Palat, TB ($ 6,400 DK / $ 5,600 FD) - If you want to save some money and not spend up for Stamkos, you could still get a piece of Stamkos by rostering his linemate in Ondrej Palat. Palat skates with Stamkos on both the top line and the top power-play so there is a good correlation to Stamkos at a discounted price. Palat has registered three points in two games this season and while he doesn't have a high shot volume, he is one of the cheaper plays that gets you exposure to an explosive offense.
• Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ ($ 4,100 DK / $ 5,000 FD) - While the matchup isn't great for Bjorkstrand, the price tag on him pretty low considering he was the Blue Jackets leading scorer during the 19-20 hockey season. Bjorkstrand is skating on the Blue Jackets third line but has seen over 17 minutes of ice time each game this season and is one that is never afraid to pull the trigger and shoot the puck.

Other wings to consider: Marchand, Connor, Tkachuk, Gallagher, Anderson, DeBrusk, Killorn, Coleman, Batherson, Galchenyuk, Ritchie

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Victor Hedman, TB ($7,100 DK / $ 7,100 FD) - Hedman is the top defensive option on the slate and it is hard to argue his value on both the Lightning as well as your DFS lineups. Hedman has registered two points so far this season and has averaged three shots per game while also blocking two shots per game so he accrues fantasy points in many different ways.
• Ryan Pulock, NYI ($5,500 DK / $ 4,600 FD) - Pulock does it all for the Islanders as he contributes both on the offensive end as well as the defensive end. He has recorded at least two blocked shots in three games this season and sees over 20 minutes of ice time so he offers a good floor with some upside as he skates on the top defensive pairing and top power-play line as well.
• Nikita Zaitsev, OTT ($ 3,700 DK / $ 3,900 FD) - If you're looking for a value defenseman, Zaitsev could be someone to consider. He has recorded a point in three straight games and has seen over 20 minutes of ice time per game. While his peripheral numbers aren't the best, Zaitsev is contributing enough on the offensive end to where he could be considered in your lineups.

Other defensemen to consider: Chabot, Petry, Hughes, Toews, Subban, Romanov, Cernak, Gustafsson

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB ($ 8,300 DK / $ 8,800 FD) - Tampa is one of the larger favorites on the slate and Vasilevskiy has had the Blue Jackets number over the past several years. In eight regular-season starts against Columbus, he has won six straight games and has pitched three shutouts against them. If spending up at the goalie position, there is no better option than Vasilevskiy.
• Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($ 8,100DK / $ 8,100 FD) - The Devils are coming off of an inspiring win against the Rangers where their offense hung four goals on Alexander Georgiev. They face a tougher test in Varlamov and the Islanders as they are a tougher defensive team that is allowing 1.7 goals per game this season and was a top-10 team in goals allowed last season. Varlamov is off to a strong start as he has won both of his starts and has pitched back-to-back shutouts against the Rangers and Bruins.
• Matt Murray, OTT ($ 7,500 DK / $ 6,900 FD) - The Sens hung in there with the Jets and had a 3-1 lead for a good chunk of the game but faltered late and lost in overtime. Murray saved 24 of the 28 total shots he faced and he has been very up and down to start the season. He is 1-1-1 with a 3.30 goals allowed average and a .890 save percentage. He is one of the cheaper goalies on the slate and if he for some reason doesn't get the nod in net, Marcus Hogberg would be next in line for Ottawa to tend the twine.

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• TB 1
  • Palat/ Point/ Stamkos (Hedman, D-men add on)
    • There should be no surprise that the top line listed is the Stamkos line of Tampa Bay. This forward line has produced 11 total points in just their two first games of the season and faces a Columbus team that is allowing 3.3 goals per game to start the season while also allowing 33 shots per game. This will be a very high owned stack on this slate since they carry the most upside so fading them in tournaments would be a risky move.
• NYI 1
  • Lee/ Barzal/ Eberle (Pulock, D-men add on)
    • The top line for the Islanders have played together for quite some time and have produced solid numbers when skating together. Over the last 550 minutes of ice time, this line has produced an xGF/60 and 35.04 scoring chances per 60 minutes. The Barzal line likes to line match with the bottom six lines when at home so they should draw very favorable matchups throughout this game.
• OTT 1
  • • Tkachuk/ Norris/ Batherson (Chabot, D-men add on) 
      • This top Ottawa line looked great against the Jets on Tuesday night as they had a 93.75 corsi for, generated 13 scoring chances, and five high-danger scoring opportunities throughout the entirety of the game. They matched up with some of the bottom lines that Winnipeg had and was able to take advantage of these great matchups. While it still is a small sample size, this line has an xGF/60 of 3.42 and is generating 45.75 scoring chances per 60 minutes.

Other Stacks to consider:  BOS 1, OTT 2, TB 2, MON 1 

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: MacKinnon (1.25X), Barzal (1.4X), Point (1.4X), Bergeron (1.45X), Suzuki (1.65X)

W: Stamkos (1X), Eberle (1.2X), Tkachuk (1.35X), Marchand (1.45X), Rantanen (1.6X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Petry (1.5X), Provorov (1.5X), Makar (1.55X), Chabot (1.7X)

G: Vasilevskiy (1.2X), Murray (1.55X), Varlamov (1.65X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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