RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, June 21st, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/21
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- New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-190) - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Brayden Point ($9,800 DK/ 15,000 FD) - The goal streak continues for Brayden Point as he now has scored a goal in nine out of his last 10 games played. Point is the top option on this slate especially with his price not really moving much on DK. He is averaging at least 2.5 shots on goal during this 10-game span so he has a solid floor but with how well he is playing, he is a top option in all formats.
- Nikita Kucherov ($10,400 DK/ 14,500 FD) - Kucherov makes for an interesting captain tournament play. His ownership might actually go down a bit since he does carry a higher price tag and he hasn't scored a goal all series long. Kucherov still has a high ceiling and if he is able to find the back of the net, he will easily cover his high salary.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy ($10,400 DK) - Vasilevskiy is one that could benefit from them being on home ice for Game 5 and he has actually performed well all series long. He is allowing two goals per game against the Islanders which usually should be enough to help you get the win but the Islanders have been playing stingy defense so goals are hard to come by. Vasilevskiy is 22-3-2 on the year when in the crease on home ice so if there is ever a time to roster him on DK, it would be now!
Value Picks
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($7,200 DK/ $8,500 FD) - Pageau has yet to record a point during this series but he is averaging close to three peripheral stats per game and is taking two shots on goal during this series against Tampa Bay. Pageau is a scoring threat on the Islander's third line and if Tampa focuses on the Islander's top two lines, both Pageau and Palmieri could end up in some favorable matchups throughout the game.
- Blake Coleman ($4,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) - The pricing on Coleman continues to drop which makes him an even more attractive value target on this showdown slate. He is taking two shots on goal per game and has recorded an assist in two out of his last three games played so Coleman is a fine target to use in all formats.
- Casey Cizikas ($3,800 DK/ $8,000 FD) - Rostering Cizikas can be quite boring but he is good for two to three peripheral stats per game and for his price point, he gives you a solid floor to work with. Cizikas saw two more minutes of ice time in the first two games of this series as his line would normally match up with opposing teams' top lines so an uptick in minutes could lead to more peripheral stat opportunities.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- TBL 1- Palat/ Point/ Kucherov
- NYI 1- Komarov/ Barzal/ Eberle
- TBL 2- Killorn/ Cirelli/ Stamkos
Player Pool (In order of preference)
C- Point, Barzal, Nelson, Gourde, Pageau, Cirelli, Cizikas
W- Kucherov, Stamkos, Beauvillier, Eberle, Palat, Palmieri, Coleman Bailey, Killorn, Komarov, Zajac, Goodrow
D- Hedman, Pulock, McDonagh, Sergachev, Dobson, Pelech, Leddy, Cernak, Mayfield
G- Varlamov, Vasilevskiy
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
