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Dave's free NFL betting picks for Week 1, and expert predictions for 2024. His NFL best bets for Week 1 and his favorite plays. Who should you bet in Week 1?
The wait is over. Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is finally here! Fantasy football, betting, and an abundance of football games await us in the months ahead. It’s good to be back.
Week 1 lines are notoriously the sharpest of the entire season. Sportsbooks have had months to crunch the numbers and settle on these lines. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t mispriced lines and opportunities to win money.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your NFL and fantasy football needs. Here are our best bets for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
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Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Fanduel Sportsbook
Full disclosure, I bet this line at Cleveland -1 back in August, and we’ve since seen it move a full 1.5 points in their favor. It ultimately doesn’t mean much, but it’s always nice getting good closing line value (CLV) as we want to be on the correct side of any line movement. That's always going to be our goal with the plays posted in this article.
Cleveland’s defense was its calling card in 2023, and they finished 2nd in defensive DVOA per FTN Fantasy. However, they performed significantly better at home than on the road. The Browns allowed 13.9 points per game at home compared to 29.3 in road games.
Dallas boasts a strong offensive attack, but they didn’t perform nearly as well in away games last year. They averaged 37.5 points per game at home, but only 23.3 on the road. That’s a 14-point difference, and this is a significant margin.
The Cowboys could also find trouble moving the ball on the ground as Cleveland only allowed 89.6 rush yards per game at home a year ago. This could spell disaster for the Cowboys running back duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott and make Dallas one-dimensional.
That would allow the Browns’ pass rushers to tee off on quarterback Dak Prescott. Dallas does own a strong defense, but it remains to be seen how they transition under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.
The real wildcard in this contest is Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson. Luckily, he has a strong defense behind him and may not have to do much heavy lifting for Cleveland to cover this number. He just has to play smart football and let the defense do the work. Put it all together, and this is a good spot to back the Browns.
Pick: Browns -2.5 (-1110): Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit
New York Giants (+1) vs. Minnesota Vikings
BetMGM Sportsbook
The Giants originally opened as -1 favorites, but this line has completely flipped. I agree with the move as this could be a very tough opening game for New York. The Vikings blitzed opposing quarterbacks at the highest rate in the league last year. Among 45 quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, Daniel Jones finished 41st in PFF’s passing grade when pressured.
Daniel Jones FUMBLE 😮
The Seahawks are in the red zone after the recovery!
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/jgh1WH8huy
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 3, 2023
Minnesota also looks to have a significant advantage with their ground game. The Giants finished 29th in Defensive Rush DVOA in 2023. They also struggled mightily against zone-concept running plays. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, opposing offenses had a 50.9% success rate on zone running plays. Among 68 running backs with 50+ carries, Aaron Jones finished 1st in success rate on zone runs (63.6%).
It sure looks like this is a bad matchup for New York. Expect Minnesota to rely on Jones and Brian Flores’ aggressive defense to pick up the win here.
Also a quick aside: This line has moved to -1.5 in some spots, so it appears to be on the move again. Get your bets in now before it goes up further.
Pick: Vikings -1 (-110): Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
*Update: This line has moved to MIN -1.5, and I am still comfortable playing them at this number.*
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers
BetMGM Sportsbook
This a tough opening draw for Philadelphia. They have new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and it may take a game or two before the players fully acclimate to the new systems. Green Bay has a new defense coordinator also, but they have more continuity on the offensive side of the ball.
That could be the difference in this game as Philadelphia’s defense was certainly a weakness last year. They finished 29th in defensive pass DVOA and 31st in passing yards allowed per game. The Eagles made several additions to address the secondary, but it’s a mix of aging veterans and talented but unproven rookies. This feels like a good recipe for a Jordan Love blow-up game.
I have this game closer to a pick ‘em in my power rankings, so we’re getting a few points of value with this line at +3. Feel free to sprinkle a little on the money line as well.
Pick: Packers +3 (-125): Risk .625 units to win .5 units
*Update: This line has moved to Packers +1.5, and I do not recommend playing Green Bay as I believe there is little value with the current line.*
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers, Total: O/U 48.5
BetMGM Sportsbook
This game has the third-highest total on the Week 1 card and for good reason. Both these teams finished in the top 10 in Offensive DVOA in 2023 but struggled defensively. Philadelphia finished 29th in defensive DVOA while Green Bay ranked 27th. Both teams are also welcoming in new defensive coordinators, so this feels like a game where the offenses could light up the scoreboard.
We previously mentioned our thoughts on Jordan Love’s outlook for this game, and it’s very likely Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense experience similar success.
Expect to see these offenses on full display as the NFL’s first game in Brazil is an exciting one.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-110): Risk .55 units to win .5 units
Update: This total has moved to 49.5. It's crossed the key number of 49, but I believe there is still value and would be comfortable playing it up to 50.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
BetMGM Sportsbook
I got this number at -2.5 back in August. I still think there’s some value on Atlanta even at -3, but I stop short of playing a full unit at this number.
It’s a tough opening draw for the new-look Falcons as Pittsburgh's defense finished sixth in defensive DVOA last year. However, they boast a strong offensive unit with a variety of weapons and a strong running game. They should be able to exploit holes in the Steelers' defense.
Pittsburgh’s quarterback play could also ultimately be their undoing. Russell Wilson’s not nearly the same player he was in Seattle. As his athleticism has waned he’s had a hard time adjusting to playing quarterback exclusively from the pocket. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith prefers to attack the middle of the field and this is an area where Wilson has struggled, so I have some doubts regarding this QB/OC combination.
Atlanta had their struggles rushing the passer last year, but they’ve made several additions to address this issue including trading for former New England Patriots Matthew Judon.
🚨 🚨 🚨
Sources: The #Patriots are trading pass-rusher Matthew Judon to the #Falcons, landing Atlanta a standout on defense. It’s a third-rounder going back.
At long last, New England resolves its situation with Judon with a trade. pic.twitter.com/VbehQTeu1X
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 14, 2024
Wilson has been sacked an astounding 100 times the last two years, and Atlanta should be able to make some noise against Pittsburgh’s offensive front.
Expect the Falcons to be motivated to beat their former coach, have a strong showing, and begin the Raheem Morris/Kirk Cousins era with a win in a closely contested game.
Pick: Falcons -3 (-105): Risk .525 units to win .5 units
*Update: This line has moved to ATL -3.5, and I would not play the game at this number.*
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