NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets and Avoids

November 19, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Has football become more about stats than winning the game? Take the 49ers this past week. They had lost three straight games prior to their bye and were on the road taking on the division-leading Jaguars. They not only won but they thumped Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville. The offense was back to rolling and the defense was held to three points. But the ESPN headline after the game said the following.

Clearly, the content is now tailored to fantasy and prop betting than the actual game. No one is a bigger fan of gambling but player props and fantasy should never be more important than who won the game. A month ago, the 49ers were being talked about as Super Bowl contenders, then during the bye week, the pundits downgraded them. The win against the Jags was a statement win but clearly "The Worldwide Leader" did not think so.

Week 10 saw the Bengals go down knocking out a good chunk of those left in survivor pools. The Bills losing also did some damage but they were taken early this season so not many entrants had them left. And I say this every week but it still baffles me how the people still forget to enter a pick. In the pool I was knocked out of, three people were eliminated, and one had two entries. Week 11 has some big favorites and some good options for those still remaining in the pool.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 11

• Dolphins -12.5 vs. Raiders
• 49ers -12 vs. Bucs
• Cowboys -10.5 at Panthers
• Commanders -9.5 vs. Giants
• Lions -9 vs. Bears
• Bills -7 vs. Jets

Teams on bye: Colts, Falcons, Patriots, Saints

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 11

Commanders (9.5) vs. Giants

It's "fade the Giants" season. The G-men will most likely not win another game this season. And that's with a schedule that includes the Patriots and Rams at home. Brian Daboll is a very good coach but how could he allow Tommy Devito to be a third-string quarterback during the season? DeVito should not be on any roster. And now the Giants will likely stick with him the rest of the season. Good riddance.

I've said this all season about Washington, whenever you think they'll play badly they play well and vice-versa. They were getting a touchdown to Seattle and nearly won. Sam Howell has a bullet of an arm. Just watch this throw on Sunday that tied the game.

Washington will win but may not cover knowing them.

Commanders 24 - Giants 16

Cowboys (-10.5) at Panthers

Dallas seems to be the good bad team. They just dominate below-average squads but is their best win against the Chargers? They've lost to the top teams like the Eagles and the 49ers. We'll see what they're made of down the stretch against the Seahawks, Eagles again, Bills, Dolphins, and Lions. But this week should be another week where they go on cruise control. Dak Prescott is off a 404-yard passing game, four passing touchdowns, and one rushing. Carolina's defense is actually allowing the second fewest yards per game in the last three games but unless they can hold the Cowboys offense to less than 17 points, they stand no chance.

That's because Bryce Young has been a disaster. He's averaging 5.4 yards per attempt, way below average. He's thrown eight touchdowns to seven interceptions and makes throws like this.

The Panthers have the second-fewest yards per play and average the fourth-fewest points per game with 17.

Cowboys 34 - Panthers 17

Dolphins (-12.5) vs. Raiders

The Raiders are off two straight wins since Josh McDaniels was fired and Antonio Pierce was named interim head coach. But the Raiders' wins have come against the Giants and Jets. This is a big step up for them. They don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Miami. But this line is too high.

Dolphins 27 - Raiders 17

Lions (-9) vs. Bears

Detroit keeps playing better each week. Jared Goff and the offense could not be stopped against the Chargers. In that game, Detroit punted once and turned the ball over on downs. Every other time they touched the ball resulted in a touchdown or field goal. Lions receivers were running open all afternoon. The Lions even ran for 200 yards. In total, the Lions accounted for 533 yards of offense.

Their defense struggled but that's because the Chargers have a very good offense. Chicago won't even with Justin Fields expected to return as quarterback.

Lions 30 - Bears 20

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 11

Bills (-7) vs. Jets

When is enough enough with Buffalo? Will firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey do anything to improve the on-the-field product? Unlikely. The Bills were my Super Bowl pick before the season and that ticket is on life support. They have such explosiveness on offense but you can't turn the ball over four times and expect to beat any team. Buffalo has turned it over 18 times this season, one fewer than the Browns who've turned it over the most.

The Jets have not scored a touchdown in two straight games. On paper, there's really no way the Bills should lose this one unless Josh Allen throws more interceptions.

Bills 23 - Jets 16

49ers (-12) vs. Bucs

The Niners should win but this this line is two-three points too high. Tampa's numbers aren't too good but this many points for Baker Mayfield and a solid supporting cast in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is too much.

This has a backdoor cover written all over it.

49ers 30 - Bucs 21

Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Titans

It's really hard to gauge the Jaguars. Are they another good bad team? Their two biggest tests this season were the Chiefs and 49ers and in both contests, they failed to score a touchdown. But this is against the Titans, a team that struggles to score touchdowns themselves. They were held to six points by Tampa and only one touchdown the week prior. Will Levis is very young and has promise. But this may be too big a test for him.

Jaguars 24 - Titans 20

NFL Best Bets for Week 11

• Bengals (+3.5) at Ravens - Joe Burrow as an underdog off a loss in a prime-time game? Sign me up.
• Cardinals (+5) at Texas - C.J. Stroud is the talk of the league and rightly so. Arizona looks rejuvenated with Kyler Murray and can keep this one close.
• Browns (+1) vs. Steelers - Deshaun Watson is out for the season and that's why this line swung to Pittsburgh being the favorite. It's wild how the Steelers keep winning with Kenny Pickett and the offense averaging 17.3 points per game, 26th in the league. Cleveland's defense can dominate this one.

2023 Season Running Totals

• Last week: 3-0
• 2023 season: 18-12
• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

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