NFL Schedule Winners and Losers for Fantasy Football

May 21, 2022

The release of the NFL Schedule brings winners and losers for fantasy football purposes in 2022. Rob reveals which players and teams could be risers and fallers.

The NFL schedule release is always an event that creates a lot of excitement. For starters, it means we’re all one step closer to football.

For those of us in keeper and dynasty leagues, who doesn’t immediately go check your schedule to determine where your bye weeks line up against your opponents and what players you’re lucky enough not to have to go against? It’s fantasy football’s version of roulette and it’s glorious.

After all of that excitement subdues, fantasy managers start looking over the schedule to determine who are the biggest fantasy winners and losers. It’s a difficult task to be sure. We can see so much change from year to year on the defensive side of the ball. New coaching staffs, free agency, the draft, and injuries have a way of laughing in our faces with what we thought we knew.

Methodology

One of the easier ways to determine who might be some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers isn’t based so much on who they play, but more so on where they play. This is especially important at the end of the year when the weather starts to get nasty. Having to go to Green Bay or Buffalo to play a road game isn’t just a negative due to the two team’s strong defenses, but the weather could impact each team’s offensive output. When we get into December and January, the more dome games you have on your roster, the better. That’s one of the easiest ways to look for fantasy winners and losers each year and it’s one of the few evaluations that can provide real value year to year. It’s certainly not a reason to shy away from any singular player, but it’s good information to have, especially as trade deadlines get closer.

Below you’ll find a table of all 32 teams and where they ranked in fantasy points allowed to each position in half-PPR scoring. Here, being No. 1 is a very bad thing and means that particular team gave up the most fantasy points to that respective position. You’ll also find their total number of points allowed. This is the sum of the weekly averages between all four positions – quarterback, running back, receiver, and tight end. The statistics regarding fantasy points allowed per position and each team's total fantasy points allowed are found at FantasyPros.

You’ll also find some of the key additions and losses for each team. Any team with a * next to their name indicates that particular organization is in Year One of a coaching change. All of this information can begin to give us an idea of how successful or not-so-successful a particular defense is likely to be in 2022.

NFL Schedule Winners

New York Jets Playoff Schedule

Zach Wilson and company will have the chance to win plenty of fantasy managers some championships in Weeks 15–17. During that time, the Jets will have two home games against Detroit and Jacksonville. They'll also play on the road against Seattle in Week 17. Those three teams went 13-38 last season. The Lions allowed the second-most points to opposing offenses last year and the Jaguars were allowed the fifth-most. Seattle only allowed the 22nd-most points, but they did allow the fifth-most yards. The Jaguars have added a number of new players on defense, but fantasy managers should still expect it to be a below-average unit in 2022.

Breece Hall especially is prepared to smash in the fantasy football playoffs. All three of the Jets' opponents ranked 12th in most points allowed to running backs last season.

Jonathan Taylor's Playoff Schedule

It'll be hard for fantasy managers to find a more inviting playoff schedule than the one Jonathan Taylor has in front of him. He and the Colts will go up against the Vikings in Week 15 followed by the Chargers and Giants. All three teams were in the top-10 in most points allowed to running backs last season. The Chargers allowed the 2nd-most while the Giants were 9th and the Vikings were 7th. The Chargers have made it a point of improving their defense and fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting the cakewalk they were last season, but the Vikings and Giants appear to still be below-average defensive units. In fact, the Vikings allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points across all four positions in the NFL last year.

Jacksonville Jaguars' Playoff Schedule

Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram are in excellent spots to be some of the most widely used streamers at their respective positions come playoff time. It's very possible – likely, even – Etienne is a locked-in RB2 and Kirk has his own pathway to weekly starter status. Engram and Lawrence, however, are most likely streamers, although Engram has the potential to break into the top-10. It's possible fantasy managers will want all four of these players in their lineups from Weeks 15–17. They have dates with the Cowboys, Jets, and Texans.

Houston was in the top-12 in points allowed to running backs and receivers last season. They've beefed up their secondary this offseason with some high-profile rookies, but it could take a year before they pay dividends, especially with a new coaching staff. The Jets were the most generous fantasy defense in the league in 2021, allowing over 76 points a week across the four positions – the highest in the NFL. The Cowboys fielded a good defense last year, but with the loss of Randy Gregory and some likely regression in terms of Trevon Diggs' interception total, they may not be as formidable as they were a season ago.

Kansas City Chiefs' Playoff Schedule

As if Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce need any help to win fantasy championships, am I right? Well, on the off chance you actually said yes to that question, the scheduling committee gave it to them. A trio of matchups containing the Texans, Seahawks, and Broncos is pretty mouth-watering for those who roster any Chiefs player going into 2022.

The Texans gave up the second-most yards and sixth-most points last year. The Seahawks, as already touched on, were a bend-but-don't-break defense. However, I'm fine betting on Mahomes to break them. The Broncos fielded a good defense last season, but with Russell Wilson now in Denver, there's the possibility of this game being played in the 30s and the Chiefs having to keep scoring points. If there's one concern it's that games against Seattle and Denver in Weeks 16 and 17 are on the road, which leaves the door open for inclement weather.

Denver Broncos' Early Schedule

The Broncos' offense will be learning a new system with Nathaniel Hackett taking over as head coach and they'll be working in a brand new quarterback, so it was awfully nice of the scheduling committee to give Denver a few test runs in the early portion of the year. In the first eight weeks of the season, Denver will go up against the Seahawks, Texans, Jets, and Jaguars. In fact, they'll start off their 2022 schedule against two of those four teams – Seattle and Houston.

Their other four games include matchups at home against San Francisco and Indianapolis and two road matchups against Las Vegas and the Chargers. They have Baltimore, Kansas City (2x), the Rams, and Cardinals on their remaining schedule, which are most likely their most difficult games. It's an advantage for the Broncos to start off against a weaker early schedule, especially with how many new wheels and parts they'll be incorporating.

Dallas Cowboys' Late Schedule

The whole NFC East could realistically be considered winners because of their own division, but the Cowboys have a particularly nice late schedule that dips into the fantasy playoffs. Starting in Week 11, the Cowboys have contests against the Vikings, Giants, Texans, and Jaguars. Four of their final seven games are against teams who were in the top-10 of most points allowed the previous season.

This is especially advantageous for CeeDee Lamb. The Vikings allowed the most points to opposing receivers last season. Houston allowed the sixth-most, Jacksonville the eighth-most, and Tennessee the third-most. Defenses can certainly change from year to year and they do, but getting to face off against four of the most-friendly defenses against receivers can only be a good thing for Lamb.

They'll also have six dome games over that period of time, which is an added bonus. It should be noted the only game that will not be played in a dome is Week 17 – Championship Week – against the Titans in Tennessee.

D'Andre Swift's Playoff Schedule

Fantasy managers rostering D'Andre Swift should be thrilled with his schedule in Weeks 15–17. Games against the Jets, Panthers, and Bears are extremely generous. The Jets were the worst defense in the NFL last season and gave up the most-fantasy points to running backs. The Bears were a solid enough defense but did give up the 11th-most points. They gave up the 10th-most rushing yards and that was with Eddie Goldman, Khalil Mack, and most importantly Akiem Hicks on the roster. All three of them could be gone this season. Hicks is currently a pending free agent. If Hicks leaves, Chicago's run defense would take a huge hit and with a top-10 offensive line in Detroit, Swift could absolutely feast against the Jets and Bears.

The Panthers had one of the better defenses last season, but their offense will likely struggle once again with Sam Darnold behind center. This will keep the contest close where Swift can stay involved. Although, with Swift's receiving talents, he can never be totally worked out of the game plan.

Minnesota Vikings' Late Schedule

Minnesota will play six of their final seven games inside a dome with five of them being at home. That is quite favorable. However, right off the bat, their lone outdoor game comes during Championship Week in Week 17 against the Packers. That's a bit of a buzzkill to an otherwise really nice closing schedule.

In Week 12, the Vikings will play the Patriots at home. That's not a great matchup for Dalvin Cook, but with J.C. Jackson in Los Angeles, the matchup is a bit easier for Justin Jefferson. Three of their next four games will be against the Jets, Lions, and Giants.  Those three teams who were in the top-10 in points allowed last season. The Giants allowed just the 21st-most fantasy points to receivers, but with the release of James Bradberry, they'll likely be weaker in the secondary – another positive for Justin Jefferson.

San Francisco 49ers' Early and Playoff Schedule

The 49ers kick off their 2022 season against the Bears and Seattle. Fantasy managers couldn't ask for two better contests to get the season started with. Both teams appear to be in total rebuilds. They also have games against Carolina and Atlanta in the first six weeks. That gives San Francisco four very winnable games and fairly easy matchups to start the season off with. If Kyle Shanahan does give the reins to Trey Lance – as I expect him to do – he'll have the opportunity to make some noise early.

Fantasy managers should also be happy with their playoff draw. In Week 15, they'll again take on the Seahawks followed by the Commanders and Raiders. Once again, three winnable games where they should be the solid favorites in two of them. The Raiders and Commanders each were in the top-10 in points allowed last season.

Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon's Early Schedule

The Packers have a really nice start to the season with six extremely winnable games in the first nine weeks. They'll have games against the Vikings, Bears, Giants, Jets, Commanders, and Lions. They'll most likely be heavy favorites in all five games and should Vegas be correct in their assumption the Packers win those games rather easily, it could mean the Packers are able to lean heavily on the run game.

The Packers will go up against six teams in the first nine weeks of the season who were in the top-11 in terms of most-points allowed to opposing offenses. Jones and Dillon are set up to smash early.

NFL Schedule Losers

Buffalo Bills' Early Schedule & Late Season Weather Concerns 

The Bills weren't given much help as they have one of the more difficult early stretches in the league. In Week One, they'll have to go on the road to go up against the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. In Week Two, they'll do battle with the AFC's No. 1 overall seed, the Titans. In Week Three, they'll go on the road to play divisional rival and upstart Miami Dolphins and they'll stay on the road in Week Four against the Baltimore Ravens. Three of their first four games are on the road. The fifth game is the easiest one on the early docket against the Steelers, but then they're back on the road against Kansas City. Week Seven will give them a bye, but they'll return to face the NFC's No. 1 overall seed, the Green Bay Packers.

The middle of the schedule couldn't be any better though. After the Packers, the Bills will have four very winnable games against the Jets, Vikings, Browns, and Lions.

Then starting in Week 13 on December 1st, the Bills will not play another game in a dome. Not only that, but every single game on the schedule for the rest of the fantasy football season could bring weather concerns. New England in Week 13, at home against the Jets in Week 14, and at home against the Dolphins. In Week 16, they'll travel to Chicago to take on the Bears before finishing their fantasy football schedule in Week 17 on the road against the Bengals. The opponents aren't necessarily overwhelming, but they have five straight games from December 1st to January 2nd outdoors and in the northern part of the country where wind, rain, snow, or all of the above could play a factor. That is definitely not ideal for any fantasy managers leaning on Josh Allen's arm.

Miami Dolphins' Playoff Schedule

With a stretch from Week 5–9 where the Dolphins face off against the Jets, Vikings, Steelers, Lions, and Bears, fantasy managers may want to cut tails and sell high on Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. During that five-week stretch their value could easily be at the highest it will be all year and would be a great time to turn a big investment. Their late schedule and playoff schedule are very concerning.

In Week 13 they're on the road against the San Francisco and stay on the road in Week 14 against the Chargers, and Week 15 against the Bills. If that wasn't bad enough, they'll welcome Green Bay in Week 16 and finish their fantasy football schedule on the road – again – this time against the New England Patriots. Having four of their five final games of the fantasy football schedule on the road is not ideal by any means. Having four of their final games also against playoff teams is even worse. Four of their final five opponents are in the top-seven for best Super Bowl odds. That's about as brutal as it gets.

New York Jets' Early Schedule

The Jets may have one of the best playoff schedules, but they'll pay for it early. Their first 10 games are an absolute gauntlet. During that stretch they'll have to play the Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Packers, Broncos, Patriots (2x), and the Bills. That includes six playoff teams and while the Steelers likely won't be a playoff team again, the Ravens very well might be. Or the Dolphins. Or the Browns. Or the Broncos. The Jets are unlikely to be favored in any of those games and an 0–10 start, which would be mildly surprising considering the upgrades they've made, shouldn't be ruled out.

That 10-game stretch includes four games against the three teams who allowed the fewest points in the NFL last season. While those fantasy managers who roster Dolphins' players may have a built-in sell-high window, there seems to be a buy-low window baked into the Jets' schedule as well. Fantasy managers may struggle to hold onto Breece Hall and Elijah Moore if they struggle early, but their playoff schedule is most likely worth hanging around for.

Cincinnati Bengals' Playoff Schedule

The Bengals' playoff schedule is absolutely brutal. To kick off the fantasy football playoffs, they'll have to go on the road to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa has had one of the better defenses the past two seasons and there's really no reason not to expect them to be a formidable unit again in 2022.

In Week 16, they'll go on the road to play the Patriots. While the loss of J.C. Jackson makes this matchup a little less scary, this is still a Bill Belichick-led defense and you can expect them to be ready to go. Not only is it a tough matchup, but the elements in late December in New England could come into play.

To close out the fantasy football schedule, they'll play the Bills at home. While the home game is a nice touch, the weather could always be a factor in Cincinnati in early January. The Bills have arguably the best defense on paper going into 2022. This game has the potential for a shootout, which is appealing, but it's also a very difficult matchup that could be weather-impacted. Needless to say, their playoff schedule could be a lot better.

Denver Broncos' Playoff Schedule

Truth be told, Denver's brutal stretch begins even before the fantasy playoffs. In Week 13, they'll have to go on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. The following week, they'll face off against the Chiefs, who have added several new additions to their defense. In Week 15, they'll stay at home against the Cardinals before wrapping up the season on the road in Weeks 16 and 17 against the defending champion Rams, and another game against the Chiefs.

That's five straight games against teams who are highly expected to be in the playoffs in 2022. It wouldn't be a surprise if all five teams are in the top-15 for the fewest points allowed by the end of the season. There are some potential shootout matches in all five weeks and that could be their saving grace, but there's no denying it's a tough stretch of games against some very good teams with three of them being on the road.

Los Angeles Rams' Playoff Schedule

The scheduling committee saw to it that the Rams would be battle-tested before their playoffs start because their matchups in Week 15–17 are very challenging. It all starts with a road matchup against Green Bay. If you didn't agree with the Bills' arguably having the best defense on paper, then you likely believe that belongs to the Packers. They added two first-round defensive selections and return one of the best corners in the league, Jaire Alexander. They didn't lose anyone that played meaningful minutes last season. It's a tough draw for the first week of the fantasy playoffs.

In Week 16, they'll stay at home to play the Broncos. Denver allowed the third-fewest points and eighth-fewest yards last season. They added Randy Gregory and Patrick Surtain is another year older. During championship week, they'll have to go on the road to face the Chargers with Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, J.C. Jackson, and Derwin James. Those fantasy managers rostering Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Cam Akers, and Matthew Stafford were probably hoping for a more favorable draw to close out the season.

Derrick Henry Fantasy Managers

This one is going to be short and simple. Derrick Henry only plays against the Jaguars one time during the fantasy football season. He's absolutely destroyed the Jaguars the past few years and it has to be frustrating to know they'll only get to set their lineup one time with a mouth-watering matchup against Jacksonville.

Kyler Murray's Late Season Schedule

In Week 10, they'll be on the road against the Rams, who allowed the 27th-fewest points to quarterbacks last season. In Week 11, they have the 49ers who allowed the 19-fewest points to quarterbacks. In Week 12, he'll have to face off against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. A bye week in Week 13 will leave fantasy managers looking for a streamer and then the real gauntlet starts.

They'll have to face off against New England in Week 14, Denver in Week 15, and Tampa Bay in Week 16. The Patriots and Broncos were both in the top-eight for the fewest passing yards allowed last season. They do get one gift though – a Week 17 date against the Atlanta Falcons, a dream matchup where Murray could easily go for 30+. The question will be, how many fantasy managers will still be dancing after the tough stretch in Weeks 15 and 16?

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