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Jack Jacobson's 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Baltimore Ravens rookie running back J.K. Dobbins. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty RB target?
J.K. Dobbins was drafted in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Baltimore Ravens. He spent three years as a prominent playmaker on the Buckeye offense and a monster junior season put him in the discussion for the top running back in this year's class. It will be interesting to see how his skills translate to the NFL level.
As a member of the Baltimore Ravens, Dobbins faces competition in a crowded backfield. Will the Ohio State standout secure the lead role from incumbent Mark Ingram? How will he mesh with quarterback Lamar Jackson? Will Dobbins become a true three-down feature back?
These answers and more can be found in rookie J.K. Dobbins' fantasy football rookie spotlight.
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Profile
Team: Baltimore Ravens
College: Ohio State
Height/Weight: 5'10", 220 lbs
NFL 2020 Draft Slot: Round 2, Pick 23 (55 overall)
College Production
J.K. Dobbins's college stats via sports-reference.com, including bowl and playoff games
Dobbins took on the workload of a true feature back in each of his three seasons at THE Ohio State. Following a comparatively down sophomore season, Dobbins exploded in 2019 running for over 2,000 yards on 300-plus carries.
He did not miss a single game during his tenure at Ohio State and demonstrated his ability to effectively sustain a large workload and long season. The second round pick also caught over 20 balls in each of his three seasons in college, showcasing his talent as a receiving back.
Skill Set
J.K. Dobbins' highlight reel via ESPN on YouTube
Dobbins is an efficient downfield runner featuring a strong compact build that is hard to take down. He thrived as the Buckeyes’ true feature back and demonstrated the ability to function as a bell cow last season. The 55th overall pick features a solid all-around game as a runner. He can absorb contact and push defenders to gain extra yards. Dobbins’s size and elusiveness allows him to succeed in goal line and short yardage situations as he brushes off opposing defenders. The Ohio State back can effectively make quick cuts and take advantage of his plus speed in open space.
Dobbins is a dangerous weapon to be used in screen pass and dump off situations. The newest Raven thrived as a pass catcher in college, exhibiting an exceptional ability to create space and produce yards after the catch. J.K. Dobbins possesses all the skills to make him a true three-down back at the NFL level.
The Crowded Baltimore Backfield
Dobbins did not land in an ideal situation for immediate fantasy production. The Ravens' backfield depth chart features the likes of veteran Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and last year's fourth round draft pick Justice Hill. Last offseason, Baltimore signed the former Saint to a three-year, $15 million deal to lead their backfield.
As Baltimore's feature back, Ingram produced 1,018 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 202 carries. He added another 247 receiving yards on the strength of 26 catches and found the end zone another five times. Ingram's 1,265 total yards and 15 total touchdowns catapulted the Alabama product to finish as the season as fantasy's number 11 running back in full PPR formats. He also demonstrated efficiency with his touches, averaging five yards per carry on one of the league's most run-heavy offenses.
Ingram was not the only Ravens' back to enjoy a productive 2019. Teammate Gus Edwards ran for 5.3 yards per attempt on 133 rushes, but did not contribute much in the passing game. Justice Hill flashed some ability in his rookie season, but failed to live up to the lofty expectations set upon him by fantasy owners during last year's draft season. Furthermore, one can not talk the Baltimore rushing attack without mentioning dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson. The reigning MVP ran the ball for a monstrous total of 1,206 yards on 176 carries in 2019.
Whoever is running the ball for the Baltimore Ravens seems to find success, and J.K. Dobbins should be no different. However, opportunities can be hard to come by on this loaded Baltimore team. Given his pedigree, Dobbins is likely to operate as the team's number two back behind starter Mark Ingram. An injury or trade of Ingram is the likely catalyst to boost Dobbins into fantasy stardom, rendering the former Buckeye a high upside handcuff for the time being.
2020 Redraft League Outlook
Since the NFL Draft, the Ohio State product is being drafted as the number 29 running back off the board in the NFFC. At pick 64 overall, Dobbins offers a mid round price tag. The market is already pricing in the potential for Dobbins to seize the reins on this Baltimore backfield. Teammate Mark Ingram is only going 10 picks ahead of the rookie out of Ohio State as the Baltimore running attack is an expensive backfield to corner in 2019.
Mark Ingram is likely to remain the Ravens' primary back at the start of the season. His previous success, contract, skill set, and chemistry with Lamar Jackson give the veteran the edge in retaining the starting gig over the incoming rookie. However, Ingram is now 30 years old, with a ton of mileage on that body. It would not be surprising for Dobbins to emerge as this team's lead back as soon as Ingram's next injury.
A selection of Dobbins in the mid-rounds is essentially a bet against the health of Mark Ingram. Given his age and track record, that is not a terrible bet to make, but the draft board offers more stable selections at Dobbins' current market price.
Dynasty/Keeper League Outlook
J.K. Dobbins offers a much improved dynasty/keeper league outlook, as opposed to his redraft league prospects. He figures to take over the Ravens backfield by 2021. Ingram's contract would only represent a $1.3 million cap hit if the veteran is cut next season. Considering the draft capital invested in the Ohio State product, this development seems likely.
As the Ravens' number one running back, a player as talented as Dobbins should thrive as true RB1 in fantasy with the upside for first round fantasy production. Dobbins's dynasty/keeper league value far exceeds his redraft value in response to this development.
The following ranks will highlight J.K. Dobbins' fantasy value, as opposed to other rookies, in first-year player drafts for both contending and non-contending fantasy teams:
Contending Teams:
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, KC
- Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
- Cam Akers, RB, LAR
- D'Andre Swift, RB, DET
- J.K. Dobbins, RB, BAL
- Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
- Jalen Reagor, WR, PHI
- Henry Ruggs III, WR, LV
- Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, TB
- Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
Non-Contending Teams:
- Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, KC
- CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
- Jerry Jeudy, WR, DEN
- J.K. Dobbins, RB, BAL
- Jalen Reagor, WR, PHI
- Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
- D'Andre Swift, RB, DET
- Cam Akers, RB, LAR
- Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
- Henry Ruggs III, WR, LV
- Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
Dobbins' fantasy value receives a significant boost if owners are granted the luxury of sitting on the Buckeye standout for potentially an entire season. The presence of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards hinders his short-term value, but his long-term prospects remain largely unchanged. The J.K. Dobbins breakout will likely have to wait until Ingram's next injury, or the 2021 season, whichever comes first.
Dobbins' significant long-term upside allows noncompetitive teams to draft the running back early in dynasty/keeper leagues. However, the Ravens' new back offers a steep redraft price in the middle rounds due to the presence of Mark Ingram. Redraft players and competitive dynasty/keeper owners are likely to find a player which will grant more immediate and reliable production than J.K. Dobbins at his current market price.
ROOKIE SEASON PROJECTIONS: 810 rushing yards, four rushing TD, 34 catches, 283 receiving yards, two receiving TD
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