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NFL Playoff Picks: Wild-Card Weekend

After one of the wildest Week 17's in recent memory and what felt like an extremely short season, we've finally made it to the playoffs. The AFC is very weak. The wild card teams have no shot at reaching the Super Bowl. The four division champs do. Over to the NFC, all six teams can make the Super Bowl.

Nothing will surprise me there. Even a rematch of last year's Super Bowl. We've seen three Cavs-Warriors finals in a row, two consecutive Alabama-Clemson championships, North Carolina basketball reach the championship two years in a row, and the Penguins win back-to-back Cups. Is it so out fo the realm to get a Falcons Patriots rematch.

I will be attempting to seek perfection in the impossible playoff challenge; the immaculate 11-0 against the spread perfect postseason.

Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!

 

CHIEFS -9 vs. Titans

Saturday 4:30

All season long, I've consistently said the Titans are so overrated with an anemic offense straight from the 90's. Their offense is run, run, then a 5-yard pass way short of the sticks. That's partly due to them being 18th in yards per play. Marcus Mariota took a giant step back this year. His yards per attempt dipped from 7.6 to 7.1, and his passer rating fell from 95 to 79. More shocking was the fact that Deshaun Watson, who played in SIX games, threw for 19 touchdowns, while Mariota threw for 13 in 15 games. That wasn't a typo. You read that correctly. It's even more scary that Mariota's threw 13 touchdowns to 15 picks. Additionally (from The Action Network), he "has performed substantially worse on the road this season (8 TDs/4 INTs at home vs. 5 TDs/11 INTs on the road)."

Now the Chiefs defense has struggled at times, but they step up when it counts. They've played exceptional in primetime, not including the Thursday night road game in Oakland where they had four days rest; they held Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, and Phillip Rivers to under 300 passing yards and a combined 7.20 opponent Y/A. That was also Brady's second-worst passer rating all year and Rivers's two worst games. The've created multiple turnovers in their past four games, are second in turnover differential, and seventh in takeaways. That doesn't bode well for a Titans team who's given the ball away an average of twice on the road (29th).

Worried about the Chiefs offense? Don't be. They've turned the ball over the least amount of times in the entire league. That's in part because Alex Smith had a career year. He threw for 4,000 yards for the first time ever, set career highs in touchdowns, 26, passer rating, 104.7, and Y/A, eight, with five interceptions. It wasn't like he was throwing dinks and dunks like Mariota was. The Chiefs were second in yards per play, fifth in points per game, 26, and tied for third in 40+ yard plays (the Titans had six such all year).  The Titans have a defense ranked 21st in DVOA, and as much as they've taken care of their cake schedule, they will struggle to slow down Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt.

Andy Reid gets a bad knack for the playoffs, and rightly so. His postseason record is 11-12, and he'll do something stupid with the clock. That you can count on. However, Reid has made the playoffs 12 times in his career, and only four of those times has he lost in the team's playoff opener.

The Chiefs may struggle to stop the run, but I don't see how the Titans can keep pace with the Chiefs in Arrowhead. I'll lay the points.

Prediction: Chiefs 30 - Titans 13

 

Falcons +6.5 @ RAMS

Saturday 8:00

Doesn't the line seem two points too high? Is Vegas begging us to bet the Falcons or are they completely miscalculating this game?

The Falcons have struggled on offense this year and something is off. For a team that scored 30 points in 12 games last season, excluding the playoffs, they've broken 30 just four times. How are they only ranked 15th in points scored, one season after scoring a league leading 34.1 points, the most since the Broncos averaged 36.4 in 2013. The next best team last was second with 29.3 points. To compare that to this year, the Rams led the league with 29.9 and the Pats were second with 28.6.

Since 2015, the Falcons are 4-2 on the road on the West Coast. The two losses have been by a combined three points. One of those games was the non pass-interference on Julio Jones in Seattle. They are a dome team so playing in a warm stadium is enormously beneficial. Their entire offense relies on Matt Ryan's playmaking ability. Last year was an anomaly. Just check his career stats. He will need to play as well as he did last season for them to compete. Atlanta has the players, talent and experience. Can they execute against a top-10 defense coached by Wade Phillips?

The Rams offense reliably heavily on Todd Gurley. He accounted for 36% of the Rams offense. Atlanta's head coach, Dan Quinn, was the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014 when they went to back-to-back Super Bowls. He knows how to coach a defense and will have a game plan to slow down Gurley. The Rams also love throwing the deep ball and are extremely effective doing it. They rank seventh in 20+ yard pass plays and fifth in 40+ yard plays. However, the Falcons have allowed the eighth least 20+ yard plays, and only four 40+ yard plays, ranking fourth. The Rams are the young fun team that kind of reminds me of the Eagles under Chip Kelly in 2013 when they won the NFC East. LeSean McCoy had a great season like Gurley. Nick Foles had an incredible year like Goff. Kelly was the young hot coach of the NFL, like McCoy. And, they ended up losing in the first round to the Saints at home.

This could come down to a field goal and the Rams lost their stud kicker Greg Zuerlein a couple weeks ago. I think the Falcons win this one a really tight battle.

Prediction: Falcons 30 - Rams 27

 

JAGUARS -9 vs. Bills

Sunday 1:00

This game will be determined if LeSean McCoy plays or not. He's "accounted for more than 32% of the Bills' yards this season (3rd highest percentage in the NFL).

The Bills are the worst ranked playoff team per DVOA with a total DVOA rank of 21, offensive, 26, and defensive, 15.

What makes me nervous is the Bills are celebrating like they've made it to the Super Bowl. It's their first trip to the playoffs in 18 seasons, first this millennium, so naturally the fans and players are going to be hyped. But will they head into Sunday with the mindset of happy to be there, or wanting to prove they were a deserving playoff team?

The Jags number one ranked pass defense will feast on Tyrod Taylor. They were second in sacks and Taylor takes 3.01 seconds to get rid of the pass, bottom three in the league. Simply put, they have the best defense in the league. We all know that. But did you know they were the number one rushing team in the league averaging 141 yards per game. That's not good news for a Buffalo defense that was bottom five against the run allowing 124 yards per game. They will also struggle to get pressure on Blake Bortles. The Bills had 27 sacks, bottom five in the league. Even after all those stats, I still believe the defensive minded Sean McDermott will load up to stop the run, and make Bortles beat them.

Earlier in the week I liked the Bills to cover, but this stat was the telltale sign. The Jags are fifth in first quarter points while Buffalo is 31st.  The Jags will get off to an early lead, and let the defense take control.

And, if for somehow, it's a close game, maybe we'll get a Music City Miracle repeat. Too soon?

Prediction: Jaguars 23 - Bills 10

 

SAINTS -7 vs. Panthers

Sunday 4:30

This will be the third time these teams will meet this season. The Saints defeated the Panthers in Week 3, 34-13, and in Week 13, 31-21. New Orleans is a top-five offense predicated on outside runs and 5-yard screens to Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. The major factor of this game will rely on Carolina setting the edge? Can they contain Ingram and Kamara and force the Saints to play a different game than they're used to? The Panthers are 27th in open-field tackling and that's not good news for them. However, they were eighth against the run this year. Carolina is not good against the pass. Since their bye in week 11, they've allowed Robbie Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Adam Thielen, and Mike Evans to go over 100 receiving yards. They are simply awful in the secondary. If they can't stop the run, they will have no chance to slow down Michael Thomas.

Will the real Cam Newton please stand up? This is the main other factor for this game. He's thrown for over 300 yards twice all year and that was in Week 5 and 6. He's thrown the most interceptions since his rookie year and had his lowest Y/A, 6.7, in his career. But if there's one player who can be all of a sudden play like a star, it's him. He is so mercurial. You just never know which Newton you will get.

Eight of the Saints wins have been by double-digits, the other three were by nine, eight and three. It's terrifying to go against Newton in the playoffs, but the Saints will get out to an early lead. They've scored the second-most first quarter points, 6.7, and nine over their last three, while Carolina was 18th with with 3.7. The Saints will get out to an early lead, Newton will get off to a slow start and never recover in a raucous environment.

Preditciton: Saints 34 - Panthers 24

Best of luck!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Amon-Ra St. Brown

an Unheralded Dynasty Cornerstone
Jerry Jeudy

Becoming an Undervalued Dynasty Depth Piece
Karl-Anthony Towns

Making an Impact as Playmaker in Playoffs
Skyler Bell

Could See Multiple Paths to Dynasty Relevance
Jalen Duren

Determined to Improve
Jayden Daniels

Still Worth Paying Up for in Dynasty Leagues
Kevin Huerter

Tagged as Questionable for Game 6 Against Cavaliers
Andrei Iosivas

' Already Low Standalone Value Sinks Lower
Caris LeVert

Considered Questionable for Friday
Duncan Robinson

Iffy for Game 6
Lane Hutson

Contributes Two Assists in Game 5 Victory
Nick Suzuki

Amasses Three Points in Crucial Victory Thursday
Juraj Slafkovsky

Dishes Out Three Assists in Game 5 Win
Carter Hart

Stops 31 Pucks in Series-Clinching Win
Pavel Dorofeyev

Enjoys Second Consecutive Multi-Goal Game
Shea Theodore

Records Two Points in Game 6 Win
Mitchell Marner

Scores Special Goal in Series-Clincher
Tyjae Spears

has Limited Long-Term Upside in Dynasty Formats
Jaylen Wright

a Buy-Low Candidate as a Handcuff?
Ollie Gordon II

Dynasty Value Takes a Hit After Teammate's Extension
Ryan Johnson

Takes Over as Canucks GM, Sedins Promoted to Co-Presidents
Drew Helleson

Won't Play Thursday
Radko Gudas

Unlikely to Play Thursday
Jeremy Lauzon

Remains Out Thursday
Mark Stone

Misses Third Consecutive Game
EDM

Kris Knoblauch Fired as Oilers Head Coach
Micah Parsons

Expected to Miss the Early Part of the Season
Colby Parkinson

a Clear Dynasty Sell-High Candidate Entering 2026
Omarion Hampton

Poised for Year 2 Breakout in Los Angeles
Blake Corum

Dynasty Stock Rising After Encouraging 2025 Campaign
Jaxson Dart

Does Jaxson Dart Carry High-End Dynasty QB1 Upside?
David Montgomery

Dynasty Stock Rising Following Move to Houston
Chris Godwin Jr.

Can Chris Godwin Jr. Re-Establish His Dynasty Value in 2026?
Malik Willis

Not Set Up for Immediate Success in Miami
Terrance Ferguson

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Brenton Strange

Is Brenton Strange a Top-15 Dynasty Tight End?
T.J. Watt

Steelers Ready to Move on From T.J. Watt?
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Must Make Gains as Pass-Catcher to Take the Next Step
CFB

Virginia Tech Lands Commitment from Four-Star QB Peter Bourque
Kaytron Allen

Could Kaytron Allen Take on a Big Role Right Away?
Byron Buxton

Scratched on Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cal Raleigh

Heading to Injured List With Oblique Strain
Francisco Alvarez

has Knee Surgery, Expected to Miss Eight Weeks
Paul Reed

Makes Big Impact Off the Bench Wednesday
Daniss Jenkins

Contributes 19 Points As Starter
Cade Cunningham

Tallies 39 Points in Losing Effort
Max Strus

Notches 20 Points With Six Triples
Evan Mobley

Close to Triple-Double Wednesday
Jarrett Allen

Records Double-Double in Game 5 Win
James Harden

Leads the Way for Cavaliers in Game 5 Victory
Quinn Hughes

Finishes Postseason With 15 Points
Matt Boldy

Posts Two Assists in Season-Ending Loss
Scott Wedgewood

Perfect in Relief Effort
Martin Necas

Records Another Multi-Point Game
Brett Kulak

Sends Avalanche Into Conference Finals
Brayden McNabb

Suspended for One Game
Cal Raleigh

Exits With Apparent Side Injury on Wednesday Night
Juan Soto

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Juan Soto's Ankle
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled Early With Possible Leg Injury
Juan Soto

Exits Wednesday's Game Early with Ankle Injury
Kevin Huerter

is Cleared to Return for Game 5
Caris LeVert

is Available for Game 5 on Wednesday
Duncan Robinson

is Out for Game 5
Keegan Murray

Undergoes Ankle Procedure
Josh Giddey

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Pete Fairbanks

Returns From Injured List
Christian Yelich

Out With Back Tightness on Wednesday Night
Nathan MacKinnon

Chasing History Wednesday
Ryan Poehling

Won't Be an Option for Game 6
Robby Snelling

Placed on 15-Day Injured List with Elbow Sprain
Francisco Alvarez

Mets Place Francisco Alvarez on Injured List With Torn Meniscus
Max Fried

Dealing With Left Elbow Posterior Soreness
CFB

NFL Veteran Tom Moore Joins Iowa Coaching Staff
CFB

Can Cam Cook Dominate in Return to Big 12?
CFB

ACC, Big 12 Support 24-Team College Football Playoff
CFB

Anthony Colandrea Looking to Elevate Nebraska Back to National Contention
CFB

Kwazi Gilmer Set for Big Impact at Nebraska
Justin Thomas

Trending Well Ahead of PGA Championship Despite Concerning Form
J.J. Spaun

Trending Up Ahead of PGA Championship
Adam Scott

Riding Strong Form Into PGA Championship
Patrick Reed

Looking to Make Another Run at PGA Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Looks to Build on Strong Finish at Truist Championship
Sam Burns

Must Keep Ball in Play at PGA Championship
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Complete Career Grand Slam at Aronimink
Brandt Snedeker

Not the Best Option for the PGA Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at PGA Championship
Ayo Dosunmu

Has Busy Night in Game 5
Maverick McNealy

Seeking Better Start in Philadelphia
Harry Hall

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Aronimink
Jaden McDaniels

Notches 17 Points in Game 5 Loss
Hideki Matsuyama

Attempts to Improve Over 2025 PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Defend PGA Championship at Aronimink
Julius Randle

Posts a Double-Double in Losing Effort
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Keep Momentum Rolling in Philadelphia
Anthony Edwards

Held to 20 Points in Game 5 Loss
Ben Griffin

Attempting to Bounce Back After Truist Championship
CFB

Transfer Defensive Lineman Devarrick Woods Commits to Clemson
Harris English

Will Need His Putter to Thrive at Aronimink
Akshay Bhatia

Creative Flair Could Show Itself in Philadelphia
Keegan Bradley

Knows the Aronimink Golf Club Well
Si Woo Kim

Struggles at Truist Championship
Gary Woodland

Can Continue Incredible 2026 Season at PGA Championship
Xander Schauffele

In Excellent Form Heading to PGA Championship
Brandon Nimmo

Leaves Game on Tuesday with Apparent Ankle Injury
Jacob Wilson

A's Place Jacob Wilson on Injured List With Shoulder Subluxation
Christian Yelich

Brewers Reinstate Christian Yelich From Injured List
CFB

Isaac Brown Has All-American Upside in 2026
CFB

Nyck Harbor Heading into Breakout Year?
CFB

Notre Dame, USC in Discussions to Resume Rivalry Series
CFB

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Has Eyes on ACC Title
CFB

Ahmad Hardy's Gunshot Wound Not Viewed as Career-Threatening
A.J. Ewing

Mets to Call Up Top Prospect A.J. Ewing
Mookie Betts

is Officially Back on Monday
Nathan Eovaldi

Scratched From Monday's Start With Side Tightness
Henry Bolte

Athletics to Promote Top Outfield Prospect Henry Bolte to Major Leagues
Khamzat Chimaev

Suffers his First Loss
Sean Strickland

Recaptures Middleweight Title
Tatsuro Taira

Suffers Fifth-Round TKO Loss
Joshua Van

Defends Flyweight Title
MMA

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Shane Van Gisbergen

Dominates Watkins Glen for First Win of 2026
Michael McDowell

Finishes Second for Best Run of the Year At Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Scores New Career-Best Finish of Third at Watkins Glen
Tyler Reddick

Continues His Strong Season With Fifth-Place Run at Watkins Glen
Austin Dillon

Earns his First Top-10 Finish of 2026 at Watkins Glen
Mookie Betts

Dodgers Expect Mookie Betts to Return on Monday
CFB

Ahmad Hardy Sustains Gunshot Wound, in Stable Condition
Connor Zilisch

Will Start Fifth in his First Watkins Glen Cup Series Race
Tyler Reddick

Is A Top DFS Option for Watkins Glen Lineups
Christopher Bell

Is Likely to Bounce Back This Week at Watkins Glen
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Activated for Season Debut on Sunday
William Byron

Is William Byron Playable in DFS Lineups at Watkins Glen?
Kyle Larson

May have A Positive Day at Watkins Glen
Chase Briscoe

May Compete for A Top-10 Finish at Watkins Glen
NASCAR

A.J. Allmendinger May have Another Solid Outing at Watkins Glen
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Watkins Glen?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain Worth Rostering for Watkins Glen Lineups?
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Watkins Glen?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite at Watkins Glen
Chase Elliott

Is Chase Elliott a No-Brainer DFS Pick at Watkins Glen?
Chris Buescher

Qualifies 14th at Watkins Glen
Ryan Blaney

Has Upside at Watkins Glen After Signing Contract Extension
Michael McDowell

Still Searching for First Top-Five Finish at Watkins Glen
Carson Hocevar

Is Carson Hocevar Too Aggressive for Road-Course Racing?