Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Fallers: NFL Draft Aftermath

May 17, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at 2022 fantasy football quarterback ADP fallers, two weeks after the 2022 NFL Draft took place with the fantasy stock market settled.

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some quarterback fallers.

Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers

Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers

Not long ago, the Steelers found themselves without a starting quarterback and no solution to their pocket. Alas, the move to sign free agent Mitchell Trubisky to a deal this offseason, instantly turning him into Pittsburgh's starting quarterback for the 2022 season and beyond! Or not. That was all nice and good until draft week arrived and with it did PITT's QB Kenny Pickett, the only first-round draftee at the position from the 2022 class of youngsters. Cold world, Mitch-T.

It is all up in the air with very serious questions about who the hell will be there in the pocket by Week 1. I wouldn't dare say Pickett or Trubisky will be the clear-cut starter at least until the Saturday before the Steelers kick their season off, honestly. But I know one thing and that is that I wouldn't be drafting any of Trubisky or Pickett this early as you could be getting just a year-long QB2. More of a couple of waiver wire fliers/targets than anything else, and that won't change.

Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans

To think just about a month ago, we were talking about Malik Willis maybe making it to the top-10, man... That sounds insane now knowing how the draft unrolled. Anyway, Willis kind of landed in a nice-enough situation considering how he was seen as more of a developmental project other than a bona fide Week 1 true-freshman starter. With Willis landing in Tennessee, well, his chances at starting even a single game next season went down to probably near-zero percentage.

Ryan Tannehill--assuming he stays healthy--won't just surrender his QB1 role and by the sound of it... well, he is not even willing to help Willis develop on the wings while waiting for his turn. Yikes. Unless you're managing in a dynasty league, or in a 32-team league, or something even more ridiculous, you'd be good following the cratering-ADP trend and fading the hell out of Willis. The ADP has actually gone up a bit in the past few days, but nothing remarkable nor logical considering his situation has not changed at all and we know no injury issues hitting Tannehill.

Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons

This drop is a little more confounding than the prior two. It's a two-full-round fall by Mariota in the two weeks after the draft was wrapped up. I mean, that's cool and all but that truly doesn't speak highly of yall fantasy GMs out there. Mariota signed with Atlanta as the QB1 to replace departing long-time starter Matt Ryan. Of course, the Falcons roster is really hurting and screaming for help, but Atlanta fixed it a bit through the draft by adding a top-tier WR in Drake London while also drafting a nice rusher in Tyler Allgeier.

With bonafide WR1 Calvin Ridley out for the year, the Falcons also brought Bryan Edwards, Auden Tate, and Damiere Bryd to town while they will still have TE1-in-the-making Kyle Pitts catching passes from Mariota. Oh, by the way, the Atlanta Falcons also drafted Desmond Ridder to develop under Mariota. Only, you know, fantasy GMs might be thinking Ridder has a chance at usurping Mariota's starting role by the time Week 1 arrives. I don't see that happening, and I have heard nothing about that potential outcome taking place so soon. Mariota is getting drafted as the QB29 these days and after the likes of Davis Mills, Jared Goff, and Trey Lance. Still not a valuable mid-round pick in most leagues, but one worth tracking as a potential/early waiver wire target.

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