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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 16 of the Fantasy Football season. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of in a couple of these games including the Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans. Also, feel free to check out some solid prop picks for Saturday's games.
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Jaguars @ Falcons
More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Dede Westbrook over 4.5 receptions and Devonta Freeman over 57.5 rushing yards.
I like this play for Devonta Freeman and feel like it should also be a solid play for Westbrook and a great play for Westbrook if D.J. Chark doesn't suit up. If Chark does not suit up, Westbrook will become the de facto number one wide receiver and should easily cruise over 4.5 receptions. Even if Chark does play, Westbrook has a solid opportunity to get over the benchmark. Westbrook has only failed to reach five receptions three times this season. He has also hit the mark in three of the past four games while averaging 5.25 receptions per game. The Falcons are favored by seven points, which means the Jaguars will likely be throwing the ball more to keep pace. Westbrook will certainly be the beneficiary of some of these targets.
Freeman should also be able to cruise over this total vs. a suspect Jaguars run defense. Over the previous four games, the Jaguars have been torched by running backs as they have allowed a total of 535 rushing yards or 111.75 yards per game, which ranks third-worst in the league. The last time Freeman faced a defense nearly this bad was in Week 14 against Carolina and he proceeded to run 17 times for 84 yards and a score. As previously mentioned, the Falcons are also favored by seven points in this game, which means he could see additional carries late in the game to help melt the clock away.
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Saints @ Titans
Fantasy Challenge
Recommended Prop Pick: Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and A.J. Brown over 57.5 fantasy points.
While this Fantasy Challenge total may seem a little high, it is not that bad considering the total of this game is the second-highest on the board (50.5) and we have plenty of talent to choose from when making our selections. Each of these players brings explosiveness to the table and should be able to exploit the respective defenses.
Michael Thomas has been an absolute beast this season. He is averaging 11.4 targets, 9,5 receptions, and 110.9 receiving yards per game. He also put up eight receiving touchdowns to go along with an average of roughly 22 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. There is no doubt that the prop starts with him. Tennessee has struggled vs. wide receivers in the past four weeks as they have allowed 681 yards to the position, which ranks 11th-worst in the league. They have also allowed a total of 143.1 fantasy points to wide receivers in the previous four weeks, which averages out to 35.8 points per game and ranks 12th-worst in the league. Given Tennessee's struggles vs. wideouts as well as the total in the game and sheer volume Thomas will see, he certainly belongs in this play.
Kamara has not been as consistent in 2019 as we have seen in recent years, but he gets a solid matchup vs. this Titans run defense in Week 16. The Titans have allowed 114.8 fantasy points or 28.7 points per game to running backs over their previous four games, which ranks eighth-worst in the league. They have given up 368 rushing yards and 180 receiving yards over that span. Kamara's dual-threat ability should certainly come into play given this information. Given the high total in the game, I would expect him to be heavily targeted as he has seen an average of eight targets per game over his previous seven games.
A.J. Brown should thrive against this Saints Defense even if he does draw Marshon Lattimore on some of his routes. The Saints have struggled mightily against wide receivers over the previous four weeks. They have allowed the most receptions (58), third-most yards (833), and fourth-most fantasy points (185.7) over that span. Brown has been able to dismantle bad pass defenses in three of his past four games as he was able to put up over 80 fantasy points combined vs. the likes of Jacksonville, Oakland, and Houston. Last week vs. a similarly bad Texans Defense, Brown caught eight balls on 13 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. He has also earned 29 targets over the past four weeks and is quickly becoming Ryan Tannehill's favorite receiver.
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