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John Brubaker has his top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings for tonight's Monday Night Football Seahawks vs. Lions showdown slate for Week 4.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We again have a second Monday Night Football showdown this week as Geno Smith and the Seahawks (3-0) head to Detroit to take on Jared Goff and the Lions (2-1). With the current state of the NFC, this game could have large seeding implications down the road. With both offenses having players dealing with some nagging injuries, let's see how this one plays out.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang!
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Seahawks vs. Lions NFL DFS showdown slate on September 30. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Geno Smith - QB, Seattle Seahawks - $13.5K (DK), $13K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 787 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 11 rushing attempts, 36 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 25.64%
I'll start things off in this one with Geno Smith. Geno has had a relatively up-and-down start to the 2024 campaign but has been very strong from a fantasy perspective. He'll take on a very good Lions defense that ranks in the top 10 in defensive DVOA, however, I believe this game trends toward a shootout.
GENO SMITH WITH THE 34-YARD TD RUN! 🤯
✅ First TD Scorer (+1800)
(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/DphFINbyKE
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) September 8, 2024
My model projects Geno to have a strong night through the air, throwing for 270.43 yards on a 70.28% completion percentage and 1.64 touchdowns. It also projects him to add 15.44 yards and 0.14 touchdowns on the ground. I think Geno will come into this one a bit under-owed in the 1.5x spot, making this a solid option if you're entering large tournaments.
David Montgomery - RB, Detroit Lions - $12.9K (DK), $12K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 51 rushing attempts, 231 rushing yards, eight targets, eight receptions, 54 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -2.77%
I'll take a look at David Montgomery next. Splitting touches with Jahmyr Gibbs over the last two seasons has not done much to Monty's value, as he's averaging nearly 20 touches a game through the first three weeks. I mentioned when discussing Geno Smith that I believe this game turns into a shootout. I think Montgomery works in all scenarios here, especially when I consider the matchup leans toward the Detroit running game.
The Seahawks' defense under Mike Macdonald has been strong against both the pass and the run, but a bit weaker on the latter which is why I want to take advantage of Montgomery's usage in this one. My model projects him to run 13.9 times for 72.04 yards while adding 9.13 receiving yards on 1.4 receptions for a total of 0.61 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown
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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
DFS Flex Plays
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks - $6.6K (DK), $10K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 21 targets, 17 receptions, 175 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR2: 44%
I'll take a look at second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba next. JSN has seemingly taken a step forward in his second season so far. I'll be "handcuffing" JSN to all of my Geno Smith captain lineups in this showdown.
Some very promising signs on #Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba:
1. Has run 69 routes on 76 Geno dropbacks this season. That's more than Tyler Lockett (62).
2. Still getting a lot of short-area targets, but now mixing in deeper routes. Average depth of target yesterday was 10.6… pic.twitter.com/45PT8IlzFM
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024
JSN has the strongest matchup of all Seattle pass-catchers tonight, as the Lions struggle against opposing offenses' second receivers. My model projects JSN to be on par with stud wide receiver D.K. Metcalf tonight, catching 5.62 of 7.35 targets for 68.02 yards and 0.44 touchdowns. He has yet to find the end zone in 2024, but I have a good feeling he'll find his first against the Lions.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, Detroit Lions - $11.2K (DK), $15K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 16 targets, eight receptions, 136 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -74.1%
I'll flip the field and look at the Lions' top receiver here, Amon-Ra St. Brown. After starting the season with back-to-back strong performances, St. Brown took a bit of a dip against the Rams in Week 3, catching just three of his six targets for just 13 yards.
He draws a difficult matchup against Seattle in this one, but often a receiver of this caliber is "matchup-proof". My model projects St. Brown as the top player on this slate, catching 8.59 of his 10.57 targets for 89.89 yards and 0.51 touchdowns.
He's too expensive for me to give him a ton of exposure in the captain spot on DraftKings, but I'll have him in a ton of my lineups on both sites as I believe he finishes this game as the top-scoring player.
Other Flex Options: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, D.K. Metcalf
DFS Value Plays
Jason Myers - K, Seattle Seahawks - $5K (DK), $8.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 7/7 extra points made/attempted, 6/7 field goals made/attempted, 2 50-plus yard field goals made.
I'll take a look at Jason Myers tonight. I rarely account for kickers on these single-game showdown slates, but I consider this a bit of a hedge given my projected game script. Whether it's a shootout where Myers is kicking a ton of extra points, or if the Detroit defense stimies Geno Smith and the Seahawks on their side of the field, Myers creates a solid value option on a slate, especially in Lions-heavy lineups.
Brock Wright - TE, Detroit Lions - $3.2K (DK), $7.5K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: Six targets, five receptions, 36 receiving yards.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -3.9%
I'll wrap things up with the Lions' second tight end, Brock Wright. Second-year sensation Sam LaPorta has not only had a slow start to the season, he's also dealing with an ankle sprain that limited him in the second half of last week's game against the Cardinals. LaPorta didn't practice until Friday, so I'd have to imagine that Ben Johnson and the Lions' offensive coaching staff had some contingency plans with Wright.
With all things considered, my model is severely under-projecting Wright's production tonight, as it projects him to catch just 1.92 passes on 2.36 targets for 14.68 yards and 0.06 touchdowns. I think he'll be more involved than my model leads on, and will have him in a large share of my lineups at his extremely cheap price on both sites.
Other Value Plays: Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, Lions D/ST
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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