NFL Scouting Combine - Fantasy Risers and Fallers

March 9, 2022

Pierre Camus evaluates results of the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine to declare the biggest risers and fallers for fantasy football and dynasty league purposes.

We missed you, NFL Combine. How else would we know exactly how fast a 325-pound lineman runs or how big Kenny Pickett's hands are?

After a year off, the NFL Combine was back for 2022 to show us what this rookie class brings to the table. There were some record-setting performances and a lot of movement in the RB ranks based on these measurements. It was an eye-opening performance for the running back class that came in mostly unheralded after different players ran a 40 time below 4.4 seconds. Breece Hall, my rookie RB1 dating back to last summer, solidified his standing and may jump into first-round consideration for an NFL team. He has tight competition with Kenneth Walker III, however, who ran a 4.38 and posted solid numbers as well.

For fantasy purposes, it's isn't just about the measurements. Some players say their draft stock, both in reality and fantasy, rise or fall based on the expectations set out for them. Here are the players that stood out among skill positions players.

Post-Combine Risers

Christian Watson, North Dakota State

The first question on everyone's mind is always the same: who was the fastest receiver? That would be Tyquan Thornton, followed by Velus Jones, and Calvin Austin. But straight-line speed isn't all that matters and not every player is built the same.

There is a metric developed by Bill Barnwell called Speed Score that adjusts for a player's weight to give a better understanding of how efficiently they move. Shawn Siegle built on that for wide receivers and tight ends with Height-Adjusted Speed Score. Turns out, Watson did pretty well for a guy who is 6'4" based on past comps.

christian watson's height-adjusted speed score: 129.1 (99th percentile) ranks no. 4 in the playerprofiler wr database.

Calvin Johnson: 139.0
DK Metcalf: 133.3
Chase Claypool: 129.8
Christian Watson: 129.1
Terrelle Pryor: 128.3 pic.twitter.com/49QOHjJmDP

— the podfather↗️ (@Fantasy_Mansion) March 4, 2022

So, basically he is the next Megatron. At least as far as combine measurements go. The NDSU product had a nice Senior Bowl showing too but didn't go up against much Power-Five competition in his career so his outstanding college numbers must be taken with a grain of salt. This performance will undoubtedly shoot him up draft boards though.

Calvin Austin III, Memphis

How can a guy who runs 4.32 not be considered a riser? Before we get carried away, let's remember that at 5'8", his calling card is supposed to be speed. It resulted in a below-average 89.64 Speed Score, though. Then again, he came in first in the 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drill, second in broad jump, and third in vertical jump among receivers. That just can't be ignored. His 21.6 breakout age (26th percentile) doesn't scream future star but he's someone to watch based on his landing spot.

Pierre Strong Jr., South Dakota State

Tied for the fastest 40 time among running backs, Strong is sure to be one of the biggest risers in the dynasty world. Already drawing comps to small-school standouts like Elijah Mitchell and James Robinson, Strong now has to be considered a top-10 dynasty RB.

Top official 40 times among #NFLCombine running backs:

T-1) Isiah Pacheco, @RFootball, 4.37
T-1) Pierre Strong, @GoJacksFB, 4.37
T-3) Ty Chandler, @UNCFootball, 4.38
T-3) D'Vonte Price, @FIUFootball, 4.38
T-3) Kenny Walker III, @MSU_Football, 4.38

— NFL Draft (@NFLDraft) March 5, 2022

Zamir White, Georgia Bulldogs

Known mostly as a bruiser and between-the-tackles runner, White showed off his jets with a 4.4 time in the 40-yard dash. He also led the way with a 10'8" broad jump and showed that he is a capable receiver out of the backfield even though he only hauled in 17 receptions over three seasons at UGA. Most importantly, he outperformed teammate James Cook in nearly every area. This duo could wind up being another Nick Chubb-Sony Michel combo in the NFL, with White being the next Chubb.

Chris Olave, Ohio State

The speed was expected. Olave did his best work during drills where he showed that he can run routes with precision. Olave made an intriguing statement by saying he would love to play for the Raiders. It turns out, they need a replacement for Henry Ruggs and could land a receiver who is just as fast but better at getting open (and staying out of trouble). Seeing Olave go to Vegas with the 22nd pick is a real possibility.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, Maryland

It wasn't quite a Mike Gesicki level showing but Okonkwo proved himself the most athletic tight end in this group. He took the prize with a TE-best 4.52 40 time and second-best vertical jump of 35.5 inches. He showed soft hands and good reaction time during the gauntlet drill too. After laboring to produce much for a mediocre Maryland program with 447 receiving yards as a senior, this was just what he needed to earn some draft capital.

Malik Willis, Liberty

Willis was a winner before the event even started when this footage of his charitable act went viral.

Was having lunch yesterday and saw one of the Combine guys helping out someone on some hard times…@malikwillis being great even when nobody is watching. How can you not be a fan of this guy? pic.twitter.com/BmFzUM66NU

— Ryan Lacey (@rlacey23) March 3, 2022

Then there's the fact he impressed during the press event and wowed everyone with his arm strength.

Glory to God 🙏🏾 https://t.co/f2S6C3seLv

— Malik Willis (@malikwillis) March 4, 2022

Aside from being the most likable and physically gifted quarterback in this class by far, Willis boosted his draft stock quite a bit. He should be the QB1 and a possible top-10 pick on draft day, landing in a desirable spot like Denver or Washington, assuming they don't swing a major trade.

Post-Combine Fallers

Kyren Williams, Notre Dame

You don't want to be the guy who comes in last in a race. That goes double, if not more, for the unofficial audition for the NFL Draft. Williams is already a bit undersized at 5'9" so he needed to show out at this event. He follows a recent string of underachieving Irish backs who put up big numbers in a run-heavy college offense behind quality linemen who then fall flat in the pros. Think Tony Jones Jr., Dexter Williams, Josh Adams, C.J. Prosise, etc. Williams' name value should be overlooked when it comes time for rookie drafts.

David Bell, Purdue

Running a 4.65 40 is never good for a receiver but in a year when everyone else was setting the track on fire, Bell stood out in a bad way. Then he posted the worst time in the 20-yard shuttle (4.57) and was mediocre in the three-cone drill. It isn't necessarily a death knell for his draft stock since he is coming off a highly-productive season in which he caught 93 balls for 1,286 yards in the Big Ten. It does make him slightly less interesting from a fantasy perspective.

Charleston Rambo, Miami

It doesn't matter that Rambo just set Miami receiving records with 79 catches and 1,172 yards. Lackluster combine numbers all around will make him a last-round pick or undrafted free agent. Two years after Jeff Thomas similarly disappointed, it appears another Hurricane wideout may fall off the board. He will try to do better on his Pro Day in late March where timers are usually more favorable.

Jeremiah Hall, Oklahoma

Hall came in at the lower end of nearly all TE measurables, including the slowest 40 time (4.96), slowest 20-yard dash (4.62), slowest 3-cone (7.43"), and worst broad jump (9'3"). He didn't put up big receiving numbers despite being in a high-octane offense at Oklahoma, totaling 757 receiving yards over four seasons. Hall falls in the H-back category more so than a traditional tight end but any chances of him being fantasy relevant seem like a long shot.

Players Holding Value

Breece Hall, Iowa State

It's hard to say that Hall moved up since he was already widely viewed as the top back in this class, at the very lowest top-three if you happen to value Kenneth Walker and Isaiah Spiller more. Hall showed off blazing speed, great hands during drills, and everything you'd want in a three-down back. He may not enter first-round territory simply because NFL teams don't value the position like they once did, but he should go to an RB-needy team very early on Day Two (please not the Texans).

Treylon Burks, Arkansas

Many will view his 4.55 40 time as a disappointment but let's go back to Speed Score once more. At 6'2", 225 lb, Burks came away with the sixth-highest Speed Score among receivers. His best attribute isn't so much speed as his ability to catch the ball in traffic and run-after-catch ability. The fact he compared his game to Deebo Samuel when talking with the media will only serve to boost his hype. He is still the WR1 in this class and the sixth-highest prospect overall according to NFL.com's rating system.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

But those tiny hands! GMs may pick apart Pickett's 8.5" hands which were not only the smallest among those tested this year, but would be the smallest among any current NFL quarterback. Joe Burrow turned out OK despite coming in at 9 inches, which is tied for second-smallest. Hand-size measurement is one of those stats that leaves the combine ripe for ridicule and is mostly overblown. If Pickett will be successful as a pro QB, it will be due to his accuracy. He raised his completion percentage to 67% and was only picked off seven times in nearly 500 throws. He looked sharp during throwing drills and should remain in contention to be a year one starter for a team looking to establish itself under a new signal-caller right away.

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