NextGen Stats - Running Back Breakdowns and Takeaways

September 21, 2022

Antonio Losada provides key fantasy football updates for running backs after Week 2, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

The season is officially in full swing. Two weeks are gone, and 32 games are already in the books, providing some tasty information and data to crunch.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Week 2 - The Running Game Is Alive!

A few days back, I mentioned one of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players: Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to knowing who is really overperforming or underperforming among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.

With only one week of data, I deemed it optimal to first look at wideouts and tight ends, as their receiving profiles were probably true from the get-go. The best players were going to get targeted no matter what, and deep threats would remain to be speedsters, just as short-router-runners would also keep their profile the same. I'll focus on running backs for this week's entry.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole. Last season, the NFL introduced the concept of Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball-carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed, and direction of blockers and defenders?), and Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays). I will also tackle Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball-carrier gained more yards than expected) in this column.

I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15At", which accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 10 rushing attempts.

Efficiency

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): negative-22%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Remember, the more "efficient" a rusher is, the lower amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposite goal line in a straight route.
• With that in mind, and through two weeks of play, as many as seven of the 51 qualified can be considered true "north/south rushers" with marks below 3.00 EFF. That's four more than last season at this point.
• Also interesting is the fact that the correlation, while it's stayed negative (the lower EFF, the more FP), it's currently more than twice as strong (minus-0.53) as it was by the end of last season.
• That relationship is even greater on a per-15Att basis, sitting currently at minus-71%.

• With the exception of Khalil Herbert and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the top-nine EFF rushers have carried the ball at least 16 times. All of them are averaging at least 9.0+ FPPG.
• Herbert and CEH are averaging 7.2 and 5.8 FPPG respectively through Week 2 games. That said, both of them--along with the other seven players in this group--are posting marks above 11.2 FP/15Att.

• There are nine players with averages of 10.0+ ruFP/G through Week 2 but their EFF marks range from 2.32 (D'Andre Swift) to 3.91 (James Robinson). That range, though, still ranks inside the 53rd percentile of the EFF leaderboard.
• On average, the 10+ ruFPPG players are averaging an EFF figure of 3.17.

• On the other hand, as many as 20 RBs made the cut while averaging fewer than 5.0 ruFPPG. Their EFF figures range from 3.16 (Mark Ingram II) to 6.74 (Cam Akers).
• On average, those 20 rushers are averaging a combined EFF of 4.64, almost 1.5 "wasted" yards than the players averaging the most ruFPPG.

• Normalizing the fantasy scoring to a per-15Att basis, things look pretty much the same.
• Only one player (Tyler Allgeier, 4.19) has averaged fewer than 5 FP/15Att while posting an EFF below 4.50.
• Only one player (Tony Pollard, 5.15) has averaged more than 10 FP/15Att while posting an EFF above 3.91.

• Coincidence or not, rushers relied upon the most (30+ carries over the first two games) have lower EFF on average (3.78) than their less-used (15 or fewer carries) counterparts (4.03).
• That doesn't mean the former group (9.6 FP/15Att) is outperforming the second (8.1) by much through the first two weeks of play.

Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 20%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points is so minimal that it doesn't make much sense to be overly worried about it if anything at all.
• Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that almost non-existent relation, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.

• Only five of 51 qualifiers have faced stacked boxes in more than 35% of their rushing attempts.
• Four of those five have rushed the rock fewer than 18 times (the exception is Kareem Hunt). Not an entirely objective explanation, but it could be said that Hunt is the only one in that group of five that have a skill set good enough to instill fear in the defenses he's faced.
• In fact, all non-Hunt players in that group are not considered primary rushers nor sit atop their teams' depth chart at the position as their RB1 players.

• Isiah Pacheco, even on a supersmall 14-carry sample, has had to deal with stacked boxes more than three out of every five times he's attempted to rush the ball forward. Tough assignment for the rookie, who nonetheless is averaging the fifth-most (13.7) ruFP/15Att, though.
• No other player averaging 15+ ruFP/15Att (Nick Chubb, Herbert, Aaron Jones, and Swift) has faced stacked boxes on more than 23% of their carries.
• Only Jones has yet to face a stacked box while Swift has only faced one in his 20 rushing attempts through Week 2.

• Stacked boxes are often employed in the red zone. Or are they?
• There are 18 rushers with a stacked-box rate of 10% or lower. They have scored a combined eight touchdowns through two weeks. Only James Robinson has two TDs among those in that group.
• There are 16 rushers with a stacked-box rate of 20% or higher. They have scored a combined 12 touchdowns. Only Jamaal Williams has two TDs in that cohort.
• Beauty is definitely not in the middle when it comes to stacked-box rates, though. The remaining 16 players with rates between 10% and 20% have combined for just four total touchdowns, and no player from that group has scored two.

• The top-12 rushers on an FPPG (all of them at 9.0+) basis are facing stacked boxes 14.5 percent of the time they rush the ball.
• The worst-12 are facing them a very similar 13.5 percent of the time, although that figure is skewed by Tyrion Davis-Price (42.9%) and Kenyan Drake (52.9). Remove those two outliers, and the group would average a measly 6.6 percent.

Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-1%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• You might think that TLOS and EFF are related, as a north-south rusher should spend less time behind the line of scrimmage.d With two weeks on the books already, the relation sits at an irrelevant minus-12%. Nothing linked between these two things, I'm afraid.
• The relation between TLOS and actual fantasy points is also pretty much nonexistent, so this metric can be discarded when analyzing players in fantasy leagues and trying to predict their outcomes.

• After two weeks of play one year ago, Hunt led the league with a TLOS of 3.43 seconds. No player has approached such a mark this season but curiously, teammate Nick Chubb is the one with the closest one at 3.27. Patience is working wonders for Chubb, though, who is averaging a ridiculous 20.4 ruFP/G and 15.7 ruFP/15Att, the best and fourth-best marks respectively through Week 2.
• Hunt himself is at a much more reasonable 2.99 with two games in the books and 24 rushing attempts to his name. Things have worked pretty much the same for him, though, as he was averaging 7.2 FPPG at this point last season and he's now at 8.2, just 1.0 ruFP/G above his mark from a year ago.

• Of course, those with the shortest TLOS can't be having more diverging campaigns: Antonio Gibson is averaging 7.3 ruFP per game while Sony Michel is at a putrid 1.3 ruFPPG. Even on a per-15Att basis, they are at 7.8 and 3.4, so the outcome is not entirely about volume... and TLOS proves to be rather unuseful as a predictor of future production.

ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2021 season): 70% / 78% / 33% / 74%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• Tony Pollard kicked last season off with a 7.7 YPC through Week 2 (on 16 carries). That's now been demolished by two different players in Swift (10.0 YPC) and Jones (9.1) both on 20 carries through two weeks of play.
• No wonder, both Swift and Jones are among the top-six rushers to date in both ruFP/G and ruFP/15Att.

• Of course, those YPC averages will inevitably go down over time. No rusher has posted even 7.0 YPC through a full season in the past 20 years (min. 50 carries) with Darren Sproles topping the leaderboard at 6.9 YPC all the way back in 2011. Rashaad Penny and Dontrell Hilliard led all rushers last season with an average of 6.3 YPC.
• Something similar will happen at the bottom of the leaderboard. Kenyan Drake's 2.3 YPC is a better mark than his putrid 1.5 YPC from last season at this point, but that average is definitely not going to stay there all year long.
• Only one RB in the past 20 seasons rushed the rock 50+ times and finished below 2.0 YPC: Kalen Ballage (1.8) in 2019. Last season, the lowest average belonged to Tony Jones with 2.6 YPC over 54 carries.

• Nick Chubb's three touchdowns lead the whole NFL with Jamaal Williams and James Robinson the only other players having scored twice.
• Jamaal Williams is the most efficient scorer, though, with a touchdown every 11.5 rushing attempts. He is also in possession of the lowest YPC (3.5) among multi-TD scorers through Week 2.
• Two grizzled veterans, Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette, have yet to score a single touchdown. That's concerning considering they have logged the two largest diets of carries with 46 and 45, respectively.
• No other player without a touchdown has rushed the rock more than 32 times (David Montgomery).

• Removing touchdowns from FPPG averages, and prorating the averages to a per-15-attempt basis, Swift and Jones would lead the league with 15.0 and 13.6 ruFP/15Att, respectively.
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire (11.6) would rank third with the only other 10+ ruFP/15Att without factoring TDs into the calculation. Makes sense, as he has yet to score his first touchdown this season.

YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 78% / 51% / 33% / 40% / 22%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

• A few years ago, the NFL introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, defender positional data, etc...).
• The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
• The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
• The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in 5 of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.
• You know Jones and Swift have been incredibly ridiculous to start the year looking at their RYOE of 4.9 and 4.2, respectively.
• Last season, then-rookie Ty'Son Williams was boasting a 2.0 figure at this point and leading the league while at it. There are three players above that mark this year, including the aforementioned Jones/Swift and also Saquon Barkley (2.3).

• Aaron Jones, though, has been the absolute best of the baby season. His league-leading 4.9 RYOE figure is paired with an astonishing 72.2 ROE%, meaning that he's earned bonus (unexpected; above-expectation) yards on 14 of his 20 total carries.
• No other player, even on smaller samples, has been able to out-rush expectations on more than 58.3% (Eno Benjamin and Damien Harris, 12 carries and 24 carries, respectively) of their rushing attempts.

• All rushers with more than 1.5 RYOE have already scored a touchdown. Breece Hall (1.5) and Eno Benjamin (1.3) are the only two rushers with marks of 1.0+ yet to find the end zone while carrying the rock.
• On the opposite end of the spectrum, King Derrick Henry has one TD to his name while having hurt his overall rushing by minus-1.4 RYOE per attempt.

• Rushers with negative RYOE figures (24 of them qualified) have combined for seven total touchdowns through Week 2.
• Those with positive RYOE figures (27) have scored a combined 17 touchdowns in the first two games of the season.

• The more carries a player accrues, the higher the chances the average RYOE he posts regresses to a 0.0 mean. In fact, among qualifiers with 25+ rushing attempts (20 of them) through W2, their average RYOE is 0.1 yards.
• Among workhorses (min. 30 carries), only Nick Chubb has overperformed his expected yards on more than 50% of his carries, boasting a 51.3 ROE%.
• While Barkley's 86 total RYOE rank second league-wide, he's needed 39 carries to reach that number. That pales compared to Jones and Swift needing just 20 carries to arrive at their total 88 and 85 RYOE, respectively.

• James Robinson (-0.8) and Cordarrelle Patterson (-0.3) are the only two rushers with negative RYOE/A marks while having averaged 10.0+ ruFP/G this season.
• On the other hand, among the 20-worst rushers in ruFP/G, only Breece Hall (1.5) and Eno Benjamin (1.3) have RYOE/A figures above 1.0.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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