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Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NBA sports predictions for Novig markets on Wednesday, January 21. Use his recommended picks to win real money on Novig.
We are entering dangerous waters today. It's the day after a sweep, as I went 7-0 on my NBA prop bets last night, and I am probably feeling a bit confident in my picks today. I am ready to be humbled, but still optimistic about my chances as I have spent the first few hours of my morning digging into each one of tonight's NBA games to find the best possible props on which to wager.
If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Wednesday's seven-game slate.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NBA Prop Bet Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 10:00 AM ET
Andrew Nembhard OVER 27.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-106)
My favorite spot to attack tonight for assists is the Celtics, who are allowing a league-high 11.3 dimes per game over their last 15 contests. Nembhard has been among the league leaders in assists over his last 10 games, averaging 8.4 assists on 14.4 potential assists.
But betting on 8+ assists is a tough one, even if Nembhard has done it two out of three games against Boston already this year. I'm going to minimize my risk a bit by expanding the bet to his full PRA line, which he has hit in all three contests vs. Boston and in eight of his last 10 games.
Russell Westbrook OVER 28.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-122)
If it ain't broke, then don't fix it, right? Well, the Kings are broken, but Westy has been a PRA machine lately, going over this number in six straight contests, including last night against Miami.
With Domantas Sabonis continuing to play limited minutes off the bench, Westy is in line to keep initiating the offense for the Kings. Zach LaVine was benched down the stretch last night for his lack of defense, but Westy and fellow veteran DeMar DeRozan still played their usual minutes and appear to be the two players who have guaranteed minutes right now.
The Raptors are allowing the second-most points to opposing point guards in their last 15 games. This should be a high-scoring affair with both teams playing their second game in as many nights.
Trey Murphy III OVER 23.5 Points and Assists (-115)
Murphy has a tough matchup tonight against a good defensive team in Detroit. However, I am leaning into his hot streak and betting on his talent to win out in this one.
TM3 has been playing some inspired basketball lately and has surpassed his points prop (19.5) in eight straight games. However, that prop is already pretty juiced up, so I am looking to include his assists, too, as he's averaging 4.1 dimes over his last 10 games as well.
When we include his assists, he has gone over 23.5 points and assists in eight straight games with an average of over 32. As long as the Pelicans keep this game competitive, which I think they can, then Murphy should be able to go over this number once again.
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NBA Value Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 10:00 AM ET
Sandro Mamukelashvili OVER 11.5 Points (+104)
Mamu came through for me last night, and I am banking on him having a major role for the Raptors tonight again in a good spot against the Kings. The Raps were without Jakob Poeltl, Collin Murray-Boyles, and RJ Barrett last night, and I think it's pretty unlikely we see any of them return tonight. Even if CMB does play, there should be 25 or so minutes available for Mamu, which is enough for him to go over this number.
He's scored 12 or more points in all three games where both CMB and Poeltl have been out. And if we look at games that Poeltl and Barrett have missed but CMB played, he's still hit this number in nine of 12, averaging 13.3 points in those contests.
Jaylon Tyson OVER 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-116)
My man Jaylon Tyson is an absolute beast when he gets minutes, and he should be back in the starting lineup again tonight as the Cavs are down two starters -- Darius Garland and Sam Merrill. With both of those players out, Tyson has gone for 25+ PRA in seven of eight games, averaging 31.4 PRA.
He's been shooting the ball well this year, but betting on his full stat line is safer, as he can still get there with boards and assists, as he did last time against OKC when he snagged 10 boards and dished out four dimes even on a bad shooting night.
Aaron Wiggins OVER 16.5 Points and Rebounds (-103)
UPDATE: Aaron Wiggins has been ruled out (1:45 PM)
Speaking of OKC, the Thunder are playing down two starters, too, as Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein remain out tonight. They will be even thinner up front tonight as Jaylin Williams is out, too. That means we should see a lot of Wiggins at power forward against Milwaukee, which is a good thing since the Bucks are allowing the second-most boards to opposing PFs over their last 15 games.
He's gone for 24 and 18 points and rebounds in his last two games, both of which were games where he started and played 28-30 minutes. I like the odds here on Wiggins clearing this number; he should have plenty of opportunities to get up some shots and stack up some boards in this one.
UPDATE: Going to replace this bet with Ryan Rollins over 5.5 AST (-115) as Kevin Porter Jr. has been ruled out for the Bucks tonight, and Rollins should be the primary point guard for Milwaukee and soak up some more minutes and assist opportunities.
Mitchell Robinson over 8.5 Rebounds (-109)
This number is too low! While Mitch-Rob doesn't play a ton of minutes, he's very impactful on the boards while he's out there, with one of the best per-minute rebounding rates in the league. He has snagged nine or more boards in seven straight games and should have a major size advantage against any of the Nets centers that he matches up with tonight.
