NBA Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 1/28/26)

January 28, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday, 1/28/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.

Tonight brings us nine NBA games, and I am pretty pumped to attack this slate from a betting perspective. There are a bunch of really good game environments for offense, and I am going to continue to be aggressive with NBA prop bet wagers tonight. Lately, I have been running pretty hot, so I hope I can keep that hot streak going for you all with some more prop bet picks tonight.

If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Wednesday night's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook. The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.

If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.

Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NBA Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 10:00 AM ET

Dyson Daniels OVER 5.5 Assists (-138)

I usually look for better odds than these, but this is the only number available on him at Novig right now. It should be a layup for Daniels, who has averaged nearly seven assists over his last ten games. The reason I feel really confident has to do with the Celtics also allowing the most assists to opposing point guards over both their last 30-game and 15-game samples.

Daniels and Jalen Johnson are the guys who initiate the offense for Atlanta, and I look for Daniels to coast over this number tonight in a game that should be a close one and fairly high-scoring. It certainly helps Atlanta a bit that Boston is likely without their top rim-protector, Neemias Queta, too. If Daniels can find Johnson or Onyeka Okongwu on drives to the paint, they should have an easier time converting those assists for him. I like this bet even once the number moves to 6.5, as long as we get it at plus odds there.

Cam Spencer OVER 8.5 Assists (-146)

If you have been following my betting picks at all this season, you know that I love to bet on Cam Spencer. This number is juiced to the gills, but I am writing it up here because I am STILL in on it once it goes to 9.5 on Novig, too.

When Spencer moves into the starting point guard role, he changes the way he plays and becomes a pass-first player who attempts only 10 shots per game, while averaging 9.7 dimes per contest. That's over a 12-game sample size now, and Cam has a ridiculous double-digit assist streak of five straight games with 11 or more going right now.

The Hornets' defense has improved lately, but Cam just dished out 13 assists against a good Houston team, so he feels matchup-proof in this role, and I am going to keep riding him on this prop until it breaks (hopefully not tonight!)

Rudy Gobert OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-128)

Gobert has one of the best matchups for big men tonight as the Dallas Mavericks, who are almost always playing some undersized players at center, have allowed the fifth-most rebounds to opposing centers on the season.

The "Stifle Tower" has been hitting the glass hard lately, piling up 12 or more rebounds in eight of his last 10 games in which he's played 28 minutes or more. I put that last qualifier on there because there are always a few games that turned out to be blowouts, or where a player gets into foul trouble or is injured, that can bring those hit rates down.

If this game stays competitive, and I think Dallas can battle, then I like Gobert's chances of stacking up boards tonight and easily grabbing 12 or more. He's still one of the premier rebounding centers in the league and should have a major size advantage against this undersized Dallas frontcourt.

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NBA Value Props

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 10:00 AM ET

Jalen Smith OVER 12.5 Points (+108)

I don't really believe in "revenge games," but they make for a fun narrative. Smith faces his old team, the Indiana Pacers, tonight in a game that is ticketed with a 2.5-point spread and a 236.5-point total. I am a believer in Smith's recent surge in production, and I think the only reason his prop numbers have stayed relatively low is that the market doesn't know how to anticipate his minutes and role on this Chicago team from week to week.

Yes, Josh Giddey is back and slowly working his way back into the lineup, but Smith played his most minutes in the last month in their last game against the Lakers, logging 36 minutes and scoring 13 points on just seven shot attempts.

This is a much better matchup tonight as the Pacers have been a pretty poor defensive team all season and have allowed a lot of easy buckets to opposing big men inside. Smith can do damage on the offensive glass and get a few easy buckets on put-backs, but also an excellent shooter from beyond the arc, too. He doesn't need to have a high usage rate to score 13+ points. He has been in the 15-20% usage range lately, yet has 13 or more points in five of his last eight games.

The matchup is great, and I am counting on the minutes being there for Smith, whether he starts or comes off the bench. We are getting excellent odds here on an efficient scorer who only needs to knock down a few triples to get halfway towards hitting the over on his points prop.

Jaylon Tyson OVER 10.5 Rebounds, and Assists (+104)

The Cavs host the Lakers tonight in a game with a tight three-point spread and solid 235.5 total. Cleveland will be going into battle without their starting point guard, Darius Garland, and their best big man, power forward Evan Mobley. They'll need a huge performance from Donovan Mitchell, who has been tremendous this season, to pull this one out, along with big outings from some of their role players, such as Tyson.

If you haven't watched Tyson this year yet, tune in to this nationally televised game to get a look at the second-year player who has been a true breakout performer. Without Garland there to facilitate the offense, Tyson has racked up four assists in five straight games. He's also a very good rebounder for his size, pulling down 7.6 boards per contest over his last five.

With Mobley out, and possibly De'Andre Hunter, too, Tyson will need to help Jarrett Allen out on the glass. I expect him to log big minutes in this one, even with Sam Merrill likely to return to the lineup as the Cavs need his shooting, defense, and all-around game on the floor as much as possible. He's cleared this number in four of his last five games, and we are getting it at plus-money odds, which is always a nice bonus.

Tari Eason OVER 18.5 Points and Rebounds (+100)

We keep our streak of plus-money props going here with another guy who has been playing some great basketball of late. Eason has moved back into the starting lineup for Houston after missing some time with an injury. His minutes are back up into the high 20s, and his production in his last two games (13 and 9 against Philly, 17 and 7 against Memphis) has been awesome.

He didn't even shoot the ball all that well last time out, connecting on just 6-17 from the field, yet he easily coasted over his points and boards prop. The key here for Eason is his steady rebounding totals without Steven Adams in the lineup. With Adams out this season, Eason is averaging seven boards per game across seven contests. That means we just need 12 points to go with those seven boards, which is a number he's hit in 10 of 11 games this season when he's played 25 minutes or more.

This one feels like a no-brainer! Ride with Eason tonight, I really don't think he lets us down, and I think he could cash this one sometime in the third quarter with his increased role in Houston with Adams out.

Max Christie over 16.5 Points (+116)

I am a sucker for Max Christie, I admit it. But it's hard not to like him tonight, even against a good Minnesota team. Christie has been surging of late, scoring 20+ points in four straight games for Dallas and helping to carry them to some impressive wins along with the strong play of Cooper Flagg and Naji Marshall.

He's been firing up threes at a pace greater than at any other point in the season lately. He's taken 10 or more three-point attempts in three straight games and is a 45.5% shooter from beyond the arc this season, one of the best marks in the league.

When a shooter who is that efficient starts to get the green light to take more attempts, it's something to take note of, and it helps to explain his recent scoring increase. I expect his usage rate (20% or higher in five of his last seven games) to stay high as this Dallas team needs him to score in order to stay competitive against good teams. Vegas is giving Dallas a chance at doing that tonight as they are just 7-point underdogs against the T-Wolves at home.