NBA DFS and Sports Betting Trends: All-Star Break Analysis

1 year ago by Dan Palyo

We are only one more day away from the return of basketball and if you're a total NBA nut like me, you're ready for it after a full week off. I didn't pay much attention to the All-Star weekend festivities but instead spent more time preparing for the final third of the regular season by doing some stat dives.

Even though we have to navigate a bunch of guys being hurt or resting every night, playing NBA DFS and betting on the NBA is still one of my favorite things to do and I am always looking for an edge in the numbers. I put together as much data as I could here in this piece to give both DFS players and NBA bettors something they can find useful when approaching their lineups and bets the rest of the way.

In this piece, I will examine some of the recent trends of NBA teams over their last ten games as well as some of the betting trends that have emerged over the full season. I think I have a little bit of everything here and hopefully something that you'll find interesting and useful for your NBA research.

NBA DFS and Sports Betting Trends: L10 Trends

Hottest and Coldest Teams (L-10 Overall Record)

Milwaukee (10-0)
Cleveland (8-2)
Boston/Denver/Phoenix/Philly (7-3)
Charlotte/Chicago/Detroit (3-7)
Houston/Indiana (2-8)
San Antonio (0-10)

The Bucks have won ten straight coming into the break. They got a scare when Giannis hurt his wrist in the last game before the break, but reports are that it's not serious and he might not miss much time. The Cavs are in their best form of the season right now, too, and are now a top-4 team in the East since Brooklyn blew it up and Miami is fading. They failed to beat Philly last week and stake their claim on being the third-best in the East, but I have a feeling they may get a rematch at some point in the postseason.

The Spurs are winning the tank-a-thon this year and look to be the front-runners for the most lottery balls in the Victor Wembanyana sweepstakes, though Houston has been almost as bad lately, too, and playing some embarrassing basketball.

Best Offensive Ratings

Portland (121.5)
OKC (120.8)
Washington (120.4)
GSW/NY Knicks (119.7)
Cleveland/Denver (119.5)

The good news for Portland fans is that Damian Lillard is playing as well as anyone in the league. The bad news is that he hasn't had much help and despite these awesome offensive numbers, the Blazers just aren't winning enough games. They just lost Anfernee Simons for at least a few weeks, too, and are still waiting for Jusuf Nurkic to return.

You might be surprised to see OKC on this list, but you shouldn't be. They play a really run brand on basketball this year and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been simply one of the best scorers at the rim that we have seen in the league (at least as a guard) in a long time.

The Wizards are currently surging on offense, and it's largely due to the fact that they have finally had their big three of Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, and Kristaps Porzingis on the court together. When healthy, they're a clear tier above the bad and mediocre teams in the league, despite still being a good bit behind the playoff-caliber teams, too.

Worst Defensive Ratings

Portland (125.9)
Houston (122.8)
Utah (122.2)
Indiana (118.9)
Brooklyn/San Antonio (118.8)

More bad news for Portland here. They are getting absolutely destroyed on defense lately, especially by big men as they've been without Nurkic for a few weeks. Houston has played little to no defense either and the culture there is pretty bad as even the young guys don't seem too interested in giving much effort on a nightly basis. The shine has come off Utah from earlier in the year as they've regressed pretty badly and while Walker Kessler provides some rim protection, the rest of the gang in Utah isn't really stopping anyone.

The Nets are a bit of an outlier here, their number might be skewed quite a bit from the days when it was Kyrie and the JV team out there right before the trades. Bridges, Finney-Smith, and Dinwiddie are all decent defenders and Nic Claxton is an elite rim protector, so I am not reading into their low rating all that much.

Best/Worst Net Ratings

Cleveland (+12.9)
Milwaukee (+10.3)
Boston (+7.6)
Indiana (-7.3)
San Antonio (-12.8)
Houston (-13.2)

Look, it's my Cavs on top! They certainly feel like they are rounding into form at the right time, though I was hoping they'd go into the break on a high note with a win over the Sixers and it didn't happen. They'll be tested right out of the gates on Thursday when they get to face Denver, too. The Bucks are 10-0 and won Thursday night even with Giannis leaving early and Middleton not playing. They should get Portis back soon and it sounds like Giannis won't be out long either.

The Spurs and Rockets continue to be doormats here as they're not only getting beaten often, they're getting demolished on a nightly basis.

NBA DFS and Sports Betting Trends: L10 Trends vs. Season Average

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So what I wanted to explore here was how well teams were playing in their most recent 10-day sample of games as compared to their full-season ratings. Hopefully, by doing this we can identify some teams we want to target (for offense, defense, wins, pace, etc..) in the short term coming out of the break.

Offensive Rating

We saw earlier that OKC, Portland, and Washington were all playing really well on offense so it's no surprise to see them here, too. Golden State, Milwaukee, and Cleveland are all clicking on offense at an elite level, too, and are three teams that are considerably better and more consistent on a nightly basis. Milwaukee with Middleton healthy has been unstoppable and consider that they're on this run even without their other best bench player Bobby Portis.

Other teams that we should monitor going forward include New York, Atlanta, and Toronto who are all playing 3-4 points better than their season average on offense.

Defensive Rating

The Bulls and Magic lead the way here with both teams showing the most improvement in the league recently on the defensive end. Remember, a negative number here is a good thing (hence the green color coding) as the lower the defensive rating the better. Cleveland and Milwaukee pop here again, which makes sense given the solid run they've both been on.

Net Rating

The net rating simply measures a team's overall effectiveness by simply subtracting their defensive rating from their offensive rating.

I sound like a broken record, but the Cavs and Bucks are simply head and shoulders above the league in net rating over their last ten. Both teams are playing incredibly well on both ends of the floor and the results in the win column speak for themselves.

The Wizards are a distant third here, but their +4.8 margin is significant and probably has more to do with how badly they underperformed earlier in the year as compared to how they're playing right now.

Golden State, Orlando, and OKC round things out as the other teams who are playing 2+ points better in net rating. The Warriors have rallied around each other a bit without Curry on offense but have been worse on defense. OKC follows the same pattern, while Orlando has turned up the defense while playing about the same offense which resulted in their solid bump.

Pace of Play

The biggest boosts in pace belong to the Bucks and Hornets, who are both playing over two possessions per game faster than their season average. The Hornets' increase in pace has likely everything to do with the return of LaMelo Ball to their lineup after he missed several large chunks of time earlier in the season.

The Nuggets are the only other team playing more than a full possession faster than their season average.

The largest decreases in pace belong to the Knicks and Pistons while the Kings, Celtics, and Heat aren't too far behind.

NBA DFS and Sports Betting Trends: Defense vs. Position

DvP stats can be tricky to interpret and decipher, especially in today's NBA where so many players play multiple positions as the league moves closer to "positionless basketball."

But that doesn't mean we shouldn't look for some statistical outliers and try to use that information to help guide our DFS and prop betting decisions.

It usually takes about a month of the season to start getting a big enough sample size to feel good about using. But now that we are two-thirds of the way through the season, I have made the switch to using a more recent sample size of data instead of the full season to try and chase some more recent trends that have emerged during the season as teams' rotations are constantly changing due to injuries, players' performances, and trades.

So here is the data for the last 15 games played by each team. In real-time, that spans about a month or a little longer for each team.

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These numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt and they represent the +/- for the entire 48 minutes of a game for each position. So if a player only plays 36 minutes a night, you should only be applying 75% of the boost to their points, rebounds, assists, or total PRA projection.

Best DvP Spots to Target

PF vs. LAC (+8.2)
SF vs. CHA (+8.1)
C vs. POR (+7.3)
C vs. IND (+6.2)
SG vs. HOU (+5.9)

Best DvP Spots to Avoid

C vs. TOR (-8.1)
PG vs. CLE (-6.3)
PF vs. PHX (-6.1)
C vs. MIA (-5.9)
SG vs. CLE (-5.4)
SG vs. BOS (-5.2)

Remaining Strength Of Schedule Analysis

Remember that the NBA All-Star game does not come right in the middle of the season. It's an 82-game schedule in the NBA and most teams have between 21 to 25 games remaining, meaning only around 30% of their regular season games remain.

If you're looking to make some NBA futures bets (and I am) then you'll probably want to consider the remaining strength of schedule for each NBA team and the motivation that they may actually have to win and make the playoffs compared to the potential motivation to "tank" for a better chance at a good draft pick.

Easiest Remaining Schedule (Opponent Win Percentage)

Dallas (46.6%)
Detroit (47.2%)
New Orleans (47.3%)
Cleveland (48.1%)
OKC/LA Lakers (48.3%)

Dallas is currently the #6 seed in the West if the playoffs started today, but they're only a few games out of the third seed while also only being a few games ahead of the rest of the playoff contenders as the #3 through #11 seeds are separated by only 4.5 games. The Mavericks' schedule sets up nicely for them and the addition of Kyrie Irving should help them head towards a strong finish and potentially even a top-4 seed.

The Pelicans are a team with playoff aspirations and are currently the #7 seed and heading for the play-in tournament, but they have one of the best schedules. The Lakers and Thunder both have a nice draw here, but the Lakers are much more motivated to make the playoffs than the Thunder, who despite their success this season are still a few years away from truly contending.

Hardest Remaining Schedule (Opponent Win Percentage)

Philadelphia (54%)
LA Clippers (52.3%)
Atlanta (52.3%)
Sacramento (52%)
Toronto (52%)

The Sixers, Clippers, and Kings are all pretty safe bets to make the tournament even with harder schedules, but Atlanta and Toronto are both teams that could play their way out of the playoff race with poor finishes, though Chicago and Indiana don't seem to want to get in too badly at the moment either. One of Miami/Brooklyn/New York should slot into the #7 seed with the rest of the bubble teams scrapping for the crucial #8 seed which secures a chance at making the final eight with just one win (instead of two wins from the #9 or #10 slots).

More Sportsbetting Trends

So let's round things out with some NBA betting trends that can be useful for you bettors out there. I use trends as one piece of data that I consider when making bets, but they should not be used to make picks in a vacuum by any means.

Best Win Percentage ATS: Full Season

OKC (63%)
Philadelphia (59%)
Milwaukee (58%)
Orlando (57%)
Utah/Boston (56%)

If you were betting on OKC early this season you were printing money. They've slowed down a bit, but they continue to be a competitive team on a nightly basis and I like betting on them as underdogs, specifically.

Worst Win Percentage ATS: Full Season

Dallas (37%)
Miami (38%)
San Antonio (40%)
Houston (41%)
Charlotte (43%)

Perhaps Kyrie can turn around Dallas's fortunes, but they've been terrible against the spread this season even while having a winning record. They simply don't blow anyone out, so when they're favored by a big number I stay away. Miami has also underperformed for the most part and they're a hard team to trust to cover on a nightly basis, especially when it seems like they never have their entire team healthy.

Best Win Percentage ATS: As Home Favorite

OKC (69%)
Cleveland (66%)
Denver (64%)
Milwaukee (62%)
Philadelphia (62%)

Hey, look it's the Thunder again! They're the best team at home this year while being favored and it likely has to do with the fact that they're often only slight favorites, too, but it's still impressive. The rest of these teams we would expect to see here on this list.

Best Win Percentage ATS: As Home Underdog

Utah (89%)
Minnesota (71%)
Orlando (63%)
Indiana (62%)
New Orleans (60%)

Don't bet against the Jazz when they're at home! They've been a tough team to blow out any given night and even after dealing Mike Conley away at the deadline, they've had some youngsters step up and remain competitive.

Minnesota hasn't been as good as Utah, but they're also a team I wouldn't bet against if they're home. Orlando is emerging as they're finally getting all their young core guys healthy.

Best Win Percentage ATS: As Road Favorite

New York (78%)
Milwaukee (67%)
Sacramento (62%)
LA Clippers (56%)
Cleveland (53%)

The Knicks have really taken care of business when favored on the road and all five of these teams are locks for the postseason. The Clippers' cover rate might even be better if they'd just play Kawhi Leonard and Paul George more often.

Best Win Percentage ATS: As Road Underdog

OKC (74%)
Utah (67%)
Brooklyn (64%)
Toronto (58%)
Orlando (57%)

So just bet OKC against the spread pretty much anytime or anywhere, right? Utah makes another appearance here as feisty dogs, while Brooklyn, Toronto, and Orlando round out the rest of the group.

Best Cover Percentage on Overs: Full Season

Golden State (63%)
Philadelphia (59%)
San Antonio (58%)
OKC (58%)
Toronto (57%)

The recipe for an over is usually two teams with good offenses and mediocre or bad defenses. We like to factor in pace, too, but even that can be hard to project on a nightly basis with how teams match up. The Warriors can score in bunches and have taken a step back defensively this year which is likely the reason for their very average record (plus the obvious Steph injuries).

San Antonio gets destroyed by opposing offenses but has enough offensive talent to score a lot of points even when they do get blown out, which explains why they go over their totals so often.

Best Cover Percentage on Unders: Full Season

Chicago (58%)
LA Clippers (56%)
Memphis (55%)
Cleveland (54%)
Brooklyn/Indiana/Phoenix (53%)

When I think of unders, I think of teams that like to play at a slower pace and focus on half-court offense or teams that may play through big men in the post quite often. Good defenses is also a pattern here with Chicago probably being the only exception from this group as I would probably call them adequate at best.

Biggest Impact on Back-to-Backs on Totals

Cleveland (80% UNDER)
Dallas (80% OVER)
Phoenix (78% UNDER)
LA Lakers (78% OVER)
Denver (75% OVER)
Orlando (73% OVER)

So we are looking at like 8-10 game sample sizes here, so let's not get carried away, but these are still some significant numbers as I included only those teams with a 70% or higher cover rate on overs or unders this year.

Alright, that's it, I'm spent. I'm not sure you wanted 3000 words about NBA stats and trends but that's what you got. Let's have a profitable finish to the NBA season!

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