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Oftentimes, fans can get too overzealous and overconfident come draft season. Rookies are always new, fun, and exciting. However, they often take time to develop or adjust to the NFL speed. This is even true for first-rounders. It’s rarely an easy transition from college to NFL producer.
There are, however, a few teams who appear to have gotten significantly better on the offensive side of the ball. The additions these teams made during Draft Week seem likely to pay immediate dividends this upcoming season.
We’ll be focusing on six teams whose offenses look poised to take considerable steps forward with the new pieces that have since been added. Let’s dive in and please use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.
Carolina Panthers
No surprise here, right? Whenever a team has the 1.01, fantasy managers and NFL fans expect immediate success. While that doesn’t mean there won’t be growing pains, the 1.01 should make an immediate difference and Bryce Young looks poised to do just that.
Last year, the Panthers’ quarterbacks finished second-to-last in completion percentage and were one of just three teams to complete fewer than 60% of their pass attempts. While Young may not have the arm talent of Will Levis, he throws with touch, accuracy, and anticipation. He completed 64.5% of his passes last year at Alabama and earned a 91.3 passing grade according to PFF, which ranked first in the country.
The Panthers are getting, without question, a significant upgrade at the quarterback position and that’s going to have a positive effect on the rest of the offensive positions.
In 2022, the Panthers had the seventh-highest interception rate in the NFL at 2.8%. Over the past two years as Alabama’s starting quarterback, Young has thrown just 12 picks in 930 attempts, a 1.29% rate. By limiting turnovers and completing more passes, the Panthers are better prepared to keep more drives alive and moving this season with Young behind center.
The Panthers also drafted second-round wide receiver Jonathan Mingo. He’s a terrific player after the catch and brings a different element to their offense they did not currently have. He is truly an exceptional athlete, scoring a 9.87 on the Relative Athletic Score (RAS).
Mingo finished 2022 ranking 17th in broken and missed tackles per reception. He also finished eighth in yards after contact per reception at 7.5 yards. While Ole Miss chose to only line up Mingo in the slot on 39% of his snaps, that seems like his ideal home in the NFL.
He’s got a very similar skillset to Deebo Samuel and could be someone who thrives out of the slot while being deployed more as an offensive weapon than a true receiver. These two players are going to be factors right away for Carolina. They also added offensive line depth in the fourth round with Chandler Zavala.
The team finished 20th last year in total points and 29th in total offensive yards gained, but following their offseason and their draft class, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about this offense going into 2023.
Green Bay Packers
You might be wondering how the Green Bay Packers offense can be one of the most improved offenses after trading Aaron Rodgers and it’s a fair question. This article is focused on the NFL Draft, not the entire offseason. When the NFL Draft began, Rodgers was a New York Jet and the Packers were desperately lacking play-makers. In that sense, from where the team started on Thursday night of the NFL Draft, the Packers' offense got considerably better over the draft weekend.
While the first-round drought of drafting a pass-catcher continues, the Packers front office did add not one, not two, but three pass-catchers on day two of this year’s NFL Draft and all three should be expected to see the field regularly as rookies.
Jayden Reed was the first selection, a wide receiver out of Michigan State. While his 2022 season was somewhat disappointing, he excelled in 2021 and finished with 105 targets, 59 receptions, 1,026 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
If there is a "my guy" on Day 2 of this draft it's new Packers WR Jayden Reed. He is *this* close to being a really excellent starting-level WR. pic.twitter.com/wmrUgXHmCO
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 29, 2023
Reed is a favorite of Reception Perception and he should be expected to start from day one as the Packers’ slot receiver. He provides a skillset this offense hasn’t had since Randall Cobb was in his prime. A slippery, quick, and elusive technician from the slot position. His fit looks seamless and it shouldn’t be surprising if he ends up leap-frogging Romeo Doubs as the team’s No. 2 receiver.
The next two players the Packers drafted were a second-round tight end Luke Musgrave, and a third-round tight end, Tucker Kraft. Both of these prospects are elite-level athletes, which is incredibly important for the tight end position.
After refusing to resign Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis, these rookie tight ends are going to see ample playing time.
A positive for both the rookie Packers tight ends - Green Bay ran 12 personnel (2 TE sets) 30% of the time in 2022, the most in the NFL
Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft will have opportunities in a weak TE room
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) May 10, 2023
Both of these young players are going to be on the field early and often. Their size could provide Jordan Love with plenty of easy throws and their speed and power could unlock a YAC component the Packers’ offense have been desperately lacking.
Buffalo Bills
It’s hard to envision an offense that ranked fourth in total points and offensive yards gained getting better, but that’s exactly what the Buffalo Bills did during the NFL Draft. In the first round, the Bills selected the pass-catching tight end Dalton Kincaid. Some NFL scouts and analysts believed he was the best pure pass-catcher in this year’s draft, which is a huge ringing endorsement.
The Bills have been searching for more pass-catchers for the past few years, becoming too dependent on Stefon Diggs. Gabriel Davis is a nice player, but has been unable to provide that consistent option Josh Allen can depend on. He’s best viewed as a better version of Kansas City Chief and former Packer, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s a great downfield threat, but he’s a boom-or-bust player who can disappear at times.
New Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid finished last season with 70 receptions.
Since 2017, Kincaid is 1 of just 4 tight ends to hit this milestone 👀
He also had more Broken + Missed tackles than anyone in the Top-30 in the same group.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/FEKA3WtUqF
— SIS Football (@football_sis) May 3, 2023
The Bills' offense has directed about 100 targets per season over the last three years to their slot receiver, a role general manager Billy Beane said Kincaid will be deployed as. He indicated the Bills’ offense will use a lot of “11.5 personnel”, insinuating they would use Kincaid as their slot receiver, despite being listed as a tight end.
Even though Kincaid isn’t known for his prowess as a blocking tight end, if he’s routinely lining up in the slot, he’s going to provide a sizable improvement as a run blocker compared to Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie, two of the previously used slot receivers in Buffalo. In that sense, Kincaid could have a meaningful impact in both the passing and rushing game.
Then in round two, the Bills added O’Cryus Torrence out of the University of Florida who was widely regarded as the best guard prospect in this year’s draft. The Bills' offensive line finished the 2022 season ranked 23rd according to PFF and was just 31st in run-blocking. The 330-pound mauler should help immediately in that department.
Seattle Seahawks
Last year, the Seahawks had three receivers on the field just under 54% of the time. It was the fifth-lowest in the NFL and there was a very good reason for that. The team’s primary receivers behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were Marquise Goodwin, D’Wayne Eskridge, and Laquon Treadwell. Those three backup receivers combined (!!!) to have just 65 targets, 40 receptions, and 487 yards. That’s awfully pathetic. However, in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft, the Seahawks selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba from Ohio State University.
New Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s #ReceptionPerception 🔥
- 75% success rate vs man coverage, second best in the class 86th percentile
- 81.4% success rate vs zoneExcellent route runner who is exceptional working the intermediate area. https://t.co/KN0nWqN1JR pic.twitter.com/6HmtfPiFje
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 28, 2023
With Lockett working as the team’s primary deep ball threat and Metcalf, the team’s do-it-all receiver, Smith-Njigba should have ample room to work underneath, in the shallow to intermediate part of the field.
The last time we saw him play a full season in college was in 2021 when he was competing for targets with first-round picks Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Despite this, he still managed to lead the Buckeyes in receiving with 112 targets, 95 receptions, 1,606 receiving yards, and 9 touchdowns. He’s going to be a massive upgrade in terms of talent and production out of that No. 3 receiver role.
In the second round, the Seahawks surprised everyone by selecting a running back, Zach Charbonnet out of UCLA. Their 2022 second-round pick Kenneth Walker finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Garrett Wilson and this seemed like a position the Seahawks had settled, but head coach Pete Carroll loves a strong running game.
After losing Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer, who operated as the team’s primary pass-catching back in free agency, Seattle did need to address the position. It’s just that no one expected them to do so this early. Regardless, the selection of Charbonnet only strengthens the Seattle offense even more.
Over the last two seasons as UCLA’s starting running back, he’s racked up 2,496 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns. He also had a very impressive 6.28 yards-per-carry average. He also chipped in with 61 receptions and 518 receiving yards. Charbonnet and Walker will form one of the better young running back duos in the NFL and will ensure that even when Walker comes off the field, Seattle consistently has a threat in the backfield.
Seattle added two exciting play-makers who are likely to be immediate contributors. Their addition will certainly make Geno Smith’s job that much easier and will help ensure he won’t just be a one-hit-wonder.
Houston Texans
We cannot underestimate just how big of a difference and how much of an improvement C.J. Stroud is to the Houston Texans, especially considering just how awful Houston’s quarterback play was last season.
In 2022, only the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets had a worse QB rating in the NFL. And it was close! The Jets’ trio of starting quarterbacks finished with a 75.0 QB rating, while Davis Mills barely snuck past them at 76.8.
The Texans finished 28th in completion percentage, 25th in passing yards per game, 23rd in passing touchdown rate, 30th in yards per attempt, and they finished with the second-highest interception rate.
Let's keep this one simple.
The Texans ranked dead last in Total Points by a quarterback last season; CJ Stroud led FBS quarterbacks in Total Points per Play🏆
Major issue, major solution.#WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/KGysZEDniA
— SIS Football (@football_sis) May 5, 2023
While Stroud will certainly have a major positive effect on the Houston offense by himself, they made other additions that could help the offense from day one. Most notably, second-round pick and offensive lineman, Juice Scruggs. Lead Draft Analyst from NFL.com, Lance Zierlein had this to say about the former Penn State guard,
“A two-year starter with center/guard versatility, Scruggs is dependable and consistent in carrying out his assignment to the best of his ability. He plays like a block of granite that is difficult to push back or knock off-balance, but he’s more of a neutralizer than road grader. He plays with solid technique and possesses the play strength to hold his own in the middle.”
The Texans also selected the small, but explosive Nathaniel Dell in the third round, adding to their receiver group. While fantasy managers and Texans’ fans shouldn’t expect immediate production from a player of his stature, especially with the number of players they’ve added at this position, he could become a player they use in specific spots and situations to give the offense some juice, and in that specific role, he could be successful.
All in all, the improvement Houston’s offense will make in 2023 will, for the most part, come straight from Stroud’s arm, and considering what the Texans had last year, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were another team that absolutely hammered the offensive side of the ball in this year’s draft. They added arguably the greatest athlete in NFL history according to RAS, quarterback Anthony Richardson. They also added slot receiver Josh Downs and offensive lineman, Blake Freeland.
Last year, the Colts had the ninth-most passing attempts in the NFL, but the rest of their counting stats absolutely lagged behind, displaying an utter and significant lack of efficiency in the passing game. Despite that volume, they finished just 23rd in passing yards and 25th in passing touchdowns.
Indianapolis quarterbacks also took 3.53 sacks per game, which was the second-highest number in the NFL. This resulted in a loss of 24.8 yards per game. The sheer size and explosive mobility of Richardson are sure to help in this area.
After years of stationary passers with Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, the Colts finally have a quarterback that can move and with Richardson, that’s no longer an issue. He’s going to add a new element to this offense teams have not had to account for and that’s going to help their passing and rushing offense.
Downs is a perfect complement to Michael Pittman Jr., a possession receiver, and Alec Pierce, a downfield maven. Downs can work in the slot and over the middle of the field, giving Richardson safe and easy throws.
New Colts WR Josh Downs in #ReceptionPerception
- 75.2% success rate vs man (best in the class)
- 93.8% contested catch rate (best in the class)
- 76.9% success rate vs press (3rd best)Small. Plays big. Could not draw up a more perfect slot for Indy.https://t.co/6VA9HzrllB pic.twitter.com/ztJlDMVcE1
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 29, 2023
After having one of the best offensive lines in 2021, following last season PFF ranked Indy’s offensive line just 18th, slightly below average. With that in mind, it was important to add some reinforcements. They added BYU tackle Blake Freeland in the fourth round. Lance Zierlein had this to say about him as a prospect,
“A sky-scraping tackle prospect with outstanding length and good fluidity. Freeland should get much stronger with time in an NFL weight room. He is an effort-based run blocker who has to really crank up the work rate and technique to try to overcome his leverage disadvantages due to his height. He plays with decent technique in protection and does a nice job of battling through adversity inside the rep.“
With the addition of Richardson and Downs, this offense now has a lot more firepower than they were working with last season. With the array of weapons they now have in the backfield and at pass-catcher, the Colts’ offense headlines one of the most exciting groupings that should be expected to take a big step forward this year.
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