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Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Titans vs Bills Monday game in Week 6. Dan Fornek analyzes the MNF matchups with a detailed breakdown.
Fans have become spoiled by fantastic Monday night games, punctuated by a massively entertaining game between the Colts and Ravens in Week 5. Indianapolis looked to be in control heading into the fourth quarter, but huge performances by Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Marquise Brown brought the game to overtime and ultimately a Ravens’ win. With any luck, Week 6 will continue the trend of great offensive performances on Monday night. If both teams are healthy, this game certainly can deliver.
The Bills come into Week 6 with a 4-1 record and featuring the league's best scoring offense (34.4 points per game) and defense (12.8 points per game). While Josh Allen has regressed a bit from the season-long hot streak he enjoyed last year, he is still highly efficient throwing the ball. Allen has completed 62% of his passes for 1,370 yards and 12 touchdowns and two interceptions in five games this year. He’s also added 35 carries for 188 yards and two touchdowns on the year. The Bills don’t have much in the way of the backfield, splitting touches between Allen, Devin Singletary, and Zack Moss. Stefon Diggs paces the wide receivers (28 receptions for 374 yards and a touchdown), but the team also gets solid contributions from Emmanuel Sanders, tight end Dawson Knox, and Cole Beasley.
The Tennessee Titans head into this game 3-2 after a big win against the Jacksonville Jaguars behind Derrick Henry's high-volume rushing attack. Tennessee has had to navigate injuries to their top two wide receivers (A.J. Brown and Julio Jones) for the last few weeks, which has meant this season is the Derrick Henry show. Henry already has 142 carries for 640 yards and seven touchdowns on the year. Brown is healthy again and there is a chance Julio Jones makes his return from a hamstring injury this week, setting up an excellent showdown between two top receivers and the best defense in the NFL.
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Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Game time: Monday, October 18th at 8:15 p.m.
Game line: Buffalo -5.5
Game Total: 54
Must Starts
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen continues to establish himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL thanks to his rare combination of arm strength and mobility. Allen is currently the QB4 in fantasy despite some up and down games in the 2021 season. Allen is coming off a game where he completed just 57% of his passes, but threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. He also added 11 carries for 59 yards and a rushing touchdown to his day. Allen has three games with at least 270 yards passing, four games with multiple passing touchdowns, and has at least four rushing attempts in each game this year. He’s a must-start, especially against a Titans’ secondary allowing 20.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks on the season.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Despite a slow Week 1, Derrick Henry once again finds himself on a historic pace rushing the ball. From Weeks 2 through 5, Henry had 125 carries (31.3 per game) for 582 yards and seven touchdowns. Henry had two three-touchdown games during that stretch and has looked downright unstoppable. The Titans have also been using Henry as a pass-catcher this season and he has rewarded them by catching 14 of 15 targets for 125 yards. Nobody will confuse him with Christian McCaffrey, but it is an expanded role we haven’t seen out of Henry before. He will be put to the test against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season (249) and zero rushing touchdowns. If anybody can reverse that trend, it is probably Henry, so he should once again be a lineup fixture this week.
Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Zach Moss has finally started taking over the Buffalo backfield after an unexpected healthy inactive in Week 1 and a reduced role in Week 2. Since Week 3, Moss has taken at least 56% of the offensive snaps for the Bills, including a 74% role in Week 5 against Kansas City. In his last three games, Moss had 38 attempts (12.7 average per game), 158 yards, and a touchdown with eight targets, six receptions, 86 yards, and a receiving touchdown. Since Week 3, Moss is the RB19 in PPR formats, averaging 14.1 points per game, despite still splitting time with Devin Singletary. Tennessee has allowed five rushing touchdowns on the season and gives up an average of 18.7 points per game to running backs, giving Moss some upside as an RB2 or FLEX play given the bye weeks in Week 6.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
It has been slow going for A.J. Brown to start the 2021 season. Brown saw plenty of targets in the first two weeks (17), but struggled to generate much production (seven receptions, 92 yards, and a touchdown). Then in Week 3, he strained his hamstring, causing him to miss most of that game and all of Week 4. In his Week 5 return, Brown caught three of six targets for 38 yards in a game Tennessee controlled, leading to a run-heavy attack. As we have seen throughout his career, Brown can have a massive game at any time, so he must be started even in a bad matchup. Buffalo is allowing just 13.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, the best mark in the NFL in 2021. Buffalo is the best in the league at limiting big plays down the field, which plays into Brown’s skill set as a dynamic yards after the catch receiver. Even if Julio Jones is good to go this week, Brown may find more room to operate underneath with Jones than without him.
Julio Jones (WR, TEN)
Julio Jones has also been dealing with a hamstring injury, causing him to miss the Titans’ last two games. Like Brown, he has also generally struggled in the first three games, although he did have one massive performance in Week 2 (six receptions on eight targets for 128 yards). On the season, Julio has caught 12 of 18 targets for 204 yards, but he hasn’t found the end zone. Buffalo is an extremely difficult matchup, but if Julio is feeling good after a two-week playing hiatus, he’s shown the ability in his career to be absolutely matchup proof. If Julio is good to go (all indications are he has been getting in limited practices this week), then you have to play him in a game that will potentially feature Tennessee’s offense in a negative game script.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Fantasy managers who were expecting a repeat of 2020 for Stefon Diggs have been greatly disappointed through five games of 2021. Diggs is currently the WR25 in PPR leagues, averaging just 14.3 points per game. Diggs hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2 and has topped 70 receiving yards just one time this season. Thankfully, he should be in store for a get-right game this week. Tennessee has allowed 1,112 receiving yards to wide receivers this year, the most in the NFL. Additionally, receivers have 8 touchdown receptions against them. This adds up to the Titans being the worst secondary against opposing wide receivers this year (32.7 points per week). Diggs is poised to have a massive day this week to get him back on track in fantasy production. He is an absolute must-start in any scoring format this week.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders is getting enough work in the passing game as Josh Allen’s deep threat to make him an interesting WR3 or FLEX play every week. Sanders has at least five targets in every game this season. He has added at least three catches and 50 yards in four of five games and has two games with two touchdowns, including last week against Kansas City. Sanders operates as the number two receiver in Buffalo, giving him a consistent floor in a high-octane passing attack. With bye weeks upon us, Sanders is somebody you can confidently start in Buffalo's pass-first offense given his big-play upside against a weak secondary.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox’s receiving role has been relatively up and down this season, but he is getting targeted in the end zone which has a massive value at a position with inconsistent production across the board. Despite the massive hype around his production, Knox has three games with under five targets, two games with under four receptions, and just one game with over 50 receiving yards. The difference? Knox has four straight games with a receiving touchdown, including a two-score game in Week 4. That touchdown ability makes Knox the TE3 on the season, behind only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Given his role in the red zone, Knox finds himself as a must-start during bye weeks. Tennessee is just allowing 3.1 points to tight ends this season, but that is more due to their inability to defend the perimeter instead of being good at defending tight ends.
Consider Sitting
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Odds are that teams who drafted Ryan Tannehill have already relegated him to their roster’s QB2 at this point in the season. Even with both his starting WR’s finding their way on the must-start side of this matchup, I wouldn’t start Tannehill against the Bills until he shows some signs of production in the passing game. Tannehill has just two games this season with over 250 passing yards and just one game with more than one passing touchdown. He hasn’t done much on the ground either, failing to reach 30 rushing yards in four of five games. Losing A.J. Brown and Julio Jones had an impact on Tannehill’s numbers, but he wasn’t playing excessively well with them either. Buffalo has allowed just five passing touchdowns while generating nine interceptions this season, so it’s unlikely Tannehill will get too much going this week either.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Devin Singletary has seen his workload reduce every week this season as Zack Moss has taken control back in the Buffalo backfield. Week 5 was the first time this season Singletary failed to get double-digit carries and his third consecutive game with two or fewer targets. Between Josh Allen’s running ability and Zack Moss’s size, there isn’t much room for Singletary as a smaller and slower back. It would take an injury to Moss for the third-year back to get any considerable workload, and since we can’t predict that, he should be safely stashed on the bench this week against the Titans.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Cole Beasley was a solid WR2 in fantasy leagues last season, but he has been wildly inconsistent in 2021. Beasley has only two games with more than four targets and three games with four receptions on the year. Beasley hasn’t topped the 100-yard mark one time this year and has yet to find the end zone. Even more concerning is the fact that he has topped 70% of the team’s offensive snaps just one game this year and it was in Week 1. Buffalo is using Dawson Knox more in the passing game and Emmanuel Sanders gives the offense a dimension they didn’t have consistently last year. Until Beasley can find some start getting a solid target share in the offense, it is hard to justify playing him.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)
Gabriel Davis had huge games during his rookie season in 2020 but has failed to have a major impact in his second season. Davis has just three targets, two receptions, and 39 yards since Week 1. In that span, Davis has played over a 40% snap share just one time. Davis just isn’t seeing the field much and would need an injury to have a significant fantasy impact at this point.
Anthony Firkser (TE, TEN)
Anthony Firkser was one of the big offseason hypes at the tight end position, but he has failed to gain any momentum in the Titans’ run-heavy offense. Firkser has played in just three games this season, catching nine of 13 targets for 75 yards. He has yet to have a game over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps. Buffalo is allowing just 5.8 points per game to tight ends this season and is one week removed from keeping Travis Kelce in check relative to his lofty weekly expectations. Firkser isn’t worth starting even with the tight end position taking some hits due to bye weeks this week.
Potential Sleepers
Jeremy McNichols (RB, TEN)
Derrick Henry has seen his pass-catching role grow, but Jeremy McNichols remains a useable fantasy piece, especially in a week where Tennessee may need to air it out to keep up. In the Titans' two losses, McNichols has played at least 36% of the snaps. In Week 4’s upset loss to the Jets, McNichols caught eight of 12 targets for 74 yards. Darrynton Evans continues to get healthy and could eventually work his way into a role in the Titans’ offense, but for now, McNichols is the RB with upside functioning as the primary pass-catcher, especially if you expect the Bills to win by a healthy margin this week.
Chester Rogers (WR, TEN)
Chester Rogers has emerged as the apparent WR3 in Tennessee’s passing offense. Rogers has three games with at least five targets this year and has gone for over 60 receiving yards twice. Rogers has at least five targets in three games this season while adding four games with at least 20 receiving yards. While Rogers' best game came in Week 4 without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, he also was a factor in Week 1 with both players healthy (four receptions on six targets for 62 yards). With so many injuries in the NFL combined with bye weeks, Rogers has FLEX appeal for truly desperate lineups.
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