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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 4/23
High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Jacob deGrom vs. WAS (12.5k FD, 10.9k DK)
What a loaded slate for pitching today! We have more aces than usual and it's really too bad we don't have these aces spread out over more slates yet. What an incredible start from deGrom this year! Perhaps his strikeout numbers are padded a bit with Colorado and Miami being two of his first opponents, but you still have to be impressed with how well he's pitching and he's reminding all of us that he's still one of the best in the game. This FD price is tough to stomach today when Glasnow is 1300 cheaper, but deGrom is definitely my favorite SP1 on DK and is the biggest home favorite on the slate today at -330.
Tyler Glasnow vs. TOR (11.2k FD, 10.1k DK)
Glasnow is a close second behind deGrom today and a really nice pivot in cash on FD and GPPs on DK. His strikeout numbers are great so far this year and he's managed to keep the walks under control (bad pun not intended) in each start until he issued four against the Yankees his last time out. There's a lot to like here today, though, as he's facing a strikeout-prone Jays team at home in a pitchers' park. With the soft DK pricing on these aces, you could even make a case for going double aces over there with two of these top four pitchers and a deGrom/Glasnow pairing would be nasty!
Clayton Kershaw vs. SDP (11k FD, 10.2k DK), Yu Darvish @ LAD (10.2k FD, 9.7k DK)
Kershaw and Darvish have a rematch tonight and both of them pitched incredibly well against good offenses in their first meeting last week. Kershaw came away with the win, striking out eight Pads over six shutout frames and allowing only four baserunners. Since his poor start on opening day, he's allowed only one earned run over his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He's looking like vintage Kershaw right now, but we're paying a premium for him and the Padres do have some dangerous righties in this order with Machado and Tatis.
Meanwhile, Darvish has been on a run of his own. He whiffed nine Dodgers and allowed a single hit while taking the loss in that game. Over his last three starts, he's allowed only three earned runs while striking out 23 batters over 20 frames. The Dodgers offense is not one that we want to pick on often, but Darvish is in great form and he should come at low ownership tonight. Both of these guys are targets for GPPs and not cash plays for me based on their matchups and how recently the opposing hitters have seen them.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are riskier plays who often go overlooked in the 7-9k price range, but have a lot of upside for tournaments and will save us some salary to spend on better hitters or another mid-tier pitcher (on DraftKings).
Steven Matz @ TAM (9.5k FD, 8.9k DK)
This is probably the riskiest of the mid-tier targets, but Matz is very interesting based on his performance so far this season and the Tampa strikeout rates against lefties. His price puts him in no man's land and I would probably just pay a few hundred more for Darvish, but I'll at least entertain him here in this spot and if you're making a bunch of builds tonight then grab some exposure just in case he keeps it up. I don't see any big differences in velocity or spin rates that make me think his stuff is that much better, but he's getting results and I like picking on the Rays with lefties.
Sonny Gray @ STL (8.1k FD, 9.3k DK)
Gray is mainly a FD play for me, where he's considerably cheaper. We saw some good strikeout upside in his first start, but he allowed eight baserunners and couldn't finish the fifth inning against the Indians. I'm still a firm believer in Gray, who is a groundball/strikeout pitcher coming off one of his best seasons. He should have the platoon advantage over most of this Cardinals lineup, too, with Edman, Carlson, Carpenter, and Williams being the only lefties.
Dane Dunning @ CWS (8.5k FD, 7.3k DK)
Dunning is the opposite of Gray - in that I like him a lot more on DK than FD due to his pricing. He's a former top prospect of the White Sox organization and was a first-round pick of the Nationals. He's been capped around 70-75 pitches so far as he's had injuries the last few years. It's a dangerous spot against a good White Sox offense, but Dunning has been superb this season, with sub-1 ERA and WHIP to go along with 16 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. He makes for an interesting GPP pivot off this next guy who might end up pretty chalky.
Sandy Alcantara @ SFG (8k FD, 7.4k DK)
I had to do a doubletake on this price! Sandy is underpriced on both sites, in my opinion, and likely going to be the cash game SP2 du jour on DraftKings. He did allow four runs on six hits to the Giants in his last start, but he also whiffed seven of them in the process. He's tough on righties and this Giants lineup is striking out at a pretty decent clip to RHP. This game has one of the lowest totals on the slate and I think we see both pitchers get some ownership as a result. This brings me to our next guy...
Bargain Bin
These are the best value pitchers to use, either on FanDuel as your lone starter or on DraftKings as your SP2.
Alex Wood vs. MIA (7.7k FD, 7.1k DK)
Wood was darn good in his 2020 debut against the Fish last week, much to my chagrin as I had stacked some Marlins that day. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right? Well, maybe...but he still only struck out four over five innings, and going back to the well here might be asking for trouble as the Marlins do have some righties who hit lefties well. I could see him become a popular SP2 option tonight with the Marlins only implied for 3.3 runs, but just be careful. I am not sure he will make my player pool, but he's certainly in the conversation at this price point.
Huascar Ynoa vs. ARI (6.9k FD, 7.5k DK)
Ynoa came crashing back to reality his worst start of the season against the Cubbie, allowing six runs on seven hits through four innings. But the good news is that the strikeouts were still there, and he's now amassed 20 Ks through his first 15 innings this season. I'm ready to hop back on him here at this price as he's facing a -160 favorite facing a Snakes team that had been pretty quiet at the plate this season until they scored two touchdowns against the Reds yesterday. That performance was pretty fluky and I think Ynoa has a great chance to get back on track here tonight.
German Marquez vs PHI (6.5k FD, 6.1k DK)
Use a pitcher in Coors? Sure, why not? Marquez is one of the few Rockies' pitchers who I would consider using in his home stadium. He's coming off his best start of the year as he struck out six Mets over seven frames to notch his first win of 2021. He still worries me with the walks, but he's a guy I will probably toss in my player pool tonight as a super cheap SP2 option on DraftKings in order to fit some more expensive bats. He's too good of a pitcher to really ever be this cheap - even if he's pitching at home against a pretty good offense.
Cash Game Rankings:
- deGrom
- Glasnow
- Alcantara (DK SP2)
- Ynoa (DK SP2)
GPP Rankings:
- Glasnow
- Darvish
- Gray (FD)
- deGrom
- Kershaw
- Marquez (DK SP2)
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