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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/28/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!
We entered the first full week of the shortened MLB season with a bit of a scare, as multiple Marlins players and coaches tested positive for COVID-19, thus postponing their upcoming games, as well as the Phillies, who they played last weekend. MLB is on severe damage control right now to try and keep the ship afloat, but where there's baseball being played, there's action to be placed.
- Friday, July 24: 0-1-1
- 2020 Season Total: 0-1-1 (-1 unit)
With such odd circumstances entering this season, it's imperative to be smart with these plays off the get-go. Some players just started practicing a week ago after returning from a COVID diagnosis, while others just flat out might not be themselves following such a long layoff. I completely understand the excitement to be betting on baseball again, but be sure to not mismanage your bankroll early. As the season progresses, I'll likely have more plays, but for now I'm going to limit my plays to a couple a night.
Myself along with Tommy Bell will be supplying you with analysis, recommendations, picks, and other fun information all season long, and hopefully some money to be made as well! I'll be writing up my picks on Tuesday-Friday, and Tom will take care of the rest of the week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Finally, we're here!
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O/U: 10.5
STL: Carlos Martinez, MIN: Homer Bailey
Carlos Martinez will make his first start since 2018 on Tuesday and the Cardinals hope the all-star can even be a shell of his former self. A career 3.36 ERA over 712.1 innings as a starter, Martinez spent all of 2019 in the bullpen to strengthen his body back up and now he gets his shot again at the rotation. He has some solid help at the dish with Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong but this lineup is far from feared. They averaged 4.6 runs per game on the road last year but hit just .245 against RHP.
Homer Bailey is that guy who feels like he's been around since the turn of millenium but 2019 wound up being one of the best years of his career. He went 13-9 over 31 starts with the Royals and A's and held a 21 K% with a 7 BB%. Pretty solid numbers for a then 33-year-old. He's backed up by a potent lineup that some label the best in the American League. They've scored an insane 27 runs through three games and that's with Miguel Sano, Josh Donaldson, and Eddie Rosario hitting a combined .111.
The Cards offense will never blow anyone away, and while the Twins are on fire to start, 24 of their 27 runs have come in two games; that's tough to continue. While he likely won't be allowed to work too late into the game, Martinez will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder and should be a tough opponent for a good Minnesota team.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-117, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-194)
O/U: 9
SEA: Justus Sheffield, LAA: Patrick Sandoval
Seattle got a well-earned day off following a 7-6 win over Houston Sunday, but other than that it hasn't been a great start for the Mariners. Sheffield didn't earn much respect in his first season with Seattle but he finds himself in the 2020 rotation to open the season. He threw 9.1 innings on the road last year and held a 3.86 ERA with a .341 wOBA. The lineup behind him is filled with several young guys (Mallex Smith, Shed Long Jr., Kyle Lewis) who are going to be expected to pull a little more weight as the season moves along.
The Angels dropped a tough one Monday, out-hitting the A's 9-6 but losing 3-0. This lineup has the pieces, obviously with Mike Trout, but Justin Upton, David Fletcher, and hopefully Shohei Ohtani sooner rather than later. LA hit just .247 at home a year ago and hit about the same against LHP, so there is certainly better days to be yearned for here. Sandoval gets the nod despite giving up five runs over three innings in the Angels' last exhibition game. He came over from Houston in the Martin Maldonado trade in 2018 and made his MLB debut last year where he went 0-4 over 39.1 innings with a 5.04 ERA and 4.59 FIP. The 23-year-old gets hit hard and is somewhat prone to the long ball but he could have worse matchups than the Mariners.
Given the pitching matchup, this total is too low. LA carries the obvious offensive advantage and despite both teams having some struggles against LHP in the past, neither arm is exactly game-changing nor are they arms we shouldn't target.
Pick: Over 9 (-120, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-114)
O/U: 10
CHC: Alec Mills, CIN: Tyler Mahle
The Cubs got the series off to a hot start Monday but cranking out 6 runs in the first two frames and no one should be surprised by this. This lineup is loaded from top to bottom and now they're in one of the best hitters parks in the game. They'll look to Alec Mills on the hill and the 28-year-old has had his cup of coffee already, so he's looking to build a stronger role in the rotation. He's earned the confidence of skipper David Ross, so now he needs to back that up with something similar to the 2.70 ERA he had as a starter in 2019.
Cincinnati goes to Mahle on Tuesday after using three relievers in a small marathon of a game last night. That shouldn't be a great vote confidence as Mahle's 3-12 record in 2018 with a 5.25 ERA looms large. The righty held a 2 HR/9 and 12.4 K-BB% in 49.1 home innings last year. Offensively, Cincy is in a weird spot, already missing multiple starters with positive/suspected positive COVID cases. While they put up seven runs from the sixth inning onward on Monday (almost completing the comeback nonetheless), they'd scored just three runs in their last 21 innings prior to that. Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez will be looked on to make more of an impact in the box score.
It seems a never-ending carousel; people start talking about the Reds and then things kind of spiral. Chicago has a top 5 lineup while Mills gives the Cubs a small pitching advantage, even on the road since Mahle has done nothing to prove us otherwise.
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML +100 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
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