RADIO
The Yankees Future?
First base is one of the deepest positions for dynasty purposes. However, the average age of my top 20 at the position is 29 years old. Additionally, only four of my top ten are under the age of 30. While it's easy to remain fantasy relevant into your mid-30's at first base, it's always a good idea to be aware of the young players at the position. You never know when father time may catch up to your once great slugger.
Just ask Mark Teixeira how quickly it can happen. Between 2004 and 2008 Teixeira hit .295/.385/.555 while never hitting less than 30 homers a year. He also failed to reach 100 RBI only twice in that six year span. Injuries weren't much of a problem either, he only played in fewer than 150 games twice during that span.
Now let's take a look at what's happened since the 2010 season when he turned 30. He's hit .242/.338/.463 between 2010 and 2014. The over-30 home run power remained for the first two seasons, but hasn't been seen since. He's also failed to play in 130 games the past three seasons due to various injuries.
Why all this attention to Teixeira in an article that is clearly not about him? His decline is a key factor in Greg Bird's path to playing time. Let's take a look at some of the other factors.
The 22-year-old fifth round selection in the 2011 amateur draft has worked his way up the rankings since his debut. Things didn't start out great in his first few seasons of the minors, but he also only totaled 122 at-bats from 2011 and 2013. Something changed in 2013 when he hit .288/.428/.511 with 20 home runs in 573 at-bats. He also led the minors in walks that year. No big deal or anything.
The Birdman followed up his breakout campaign by hitting .280/.379/.489 with 20 long balls in the 2014 season. It's very rare that a player can hit for both average and power these days, but Bird is exactly that sort of player. I'd caution you from getting too excited though, because Bird has only 116 at-bats above the High-A level.
When can we reasonably expect The Birdman to herald the future of the Yankees offense? That depends largely on the health of Teixeira. Sure, the Yankees have Garrett Jones as a backup option at first base for this season, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Bird called up for additional depth in the event of an injury.
More realistically look for the 2014 MVP of the Arizona Fall League to reach the majors in 2016. It would make sense for the Yankees to prime Bird to take over for Teixeira as soon as his contract is up. That will allow Bird to absorb valuable hitting knowledge from Teixeira while the latter is still around.
Bird has the ability to hit .275 with 20 to 25 bombs in his prime. At the very least, I see him as comparable to Matt Adams, and the fantasy community is pretty high on Adams's potential.
Bird is not currently worth rostering unless you have a taxi squad. That doesn't mean you shouldn't keep an eye on his progress. Those of you with first baseman who are on the older side would be well served by monitoring his growth.
