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Mike Marteny's 2026 NCAA Tournament sleepers for March Madness. His under-the-radar sleeper picks can help you build winning college basketball brackets.
The field of 68 is finally out, and we are on the brink of the four greatest days in any sport in any country on any continent. The NCAA Tournament is an entirely different animal, and the first four days of this behemoth are the most fun days you'll have watching sports, whether it's by yourself or at a bar full of people.
Last year was chalk city in the NCAA Tournament, but I think that's the exception, not the rule. There are a few really strong teams in the tournament this year and some really unpredictable power conference teams. That usually makes fertile grounds for upsets.
In this article, I will be providing you with my sleepers for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles.
West Region Tournament Sleepers
(4) Arkansas
The Razorbacks are on a heater, blowing through the SEC Tournament in Nashville. On the other hand, they didn't have to face Florida or Alabama. Darius Acuff Jr. had a tournament for the ages.
On top of that, Arkansas got a solid draw. Hawaii is a good team, but they can't defend well enough to contain Arkansas. The Razorbacks average 89.9 points per game this year. That's sixth in Division I.
Hawaii plays “no switch defense”
What does this mean? They don’t allow many assists. But, a Hawaii basketball player is going to have to guard Darius Acuff 1v1 with ZERO HELP😅
They also drop coverage on every screen. It’s been their bread and butter in conference play.
If… pic.twitter.com/cX4hOZgST8
— Razorbackology (@arkrazorbackx) March 17, 2026
The Hogs have won 10 of the last 12 entering the tournament. The 12-seed in this region (High Point) has a great chance to knock off Wisconsin. Arkansas also matches up well should High Point win that.
A date with Arizona would likely loom, but a team that scores as Arkansas does could be a handful for the Wildcats. The west region contains by far the weakest two-seed and a questionable three-seed. If Arkansas gets past Arizona, they're a strong bet to wind up in Indianapolis.
(9) Utah State
The Mountain West was completely shafted by the committee this year. The conference is sixth-best in NET rankings at 113, which would make it at the top of mid-major status behind the Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, and Big East.
The conference only got one bid. San Diego State and New Mexico should have been in over Texas and SMU. The MWC got four teams into the tournament last season. Two made it past the first round.
The 113 NET is the highest ranking for a conference not receiving an at-large bid since 2018-19. The MWC had only one team in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. To make matters worse, Utah State won the regular-season and conference-tournament crown and only got a nine seed.
A nine seed is a slap in the face for the Aggies and the conference as a whole. They would have been better off as a 10 seed, because this is a brutal draw. They should take care of Villanova with relative ease, but facing Arizona in the second round is tough.
(10) Missouri
The Tigers didn't have a strong showing in the SEC Tournament. They also lost five of the last eight games to end the season. However, they got one of the best draws in the tournament for a double-digit seed.
The Tigers get to play the first weekend in St. Louis, which is about two hours from campus. Those matchups would be against the Hurricanes of Miami and Purdue. Both of those are very winnable games for the Tigers, especially with a very partisan crowd in St. Louis.
South Region Tournament Sleepers
(11) Virginia Commonwealth
VCU finished top 40 in every single resume metric, including the all important WAB. Yet they were still seeded behind the last at-large team. I can absolutely assure you this would never happen to a P4/5 program. pic.twitter.com/Hj1GNAGF2A
— ⚫🐏🟡 (@BracketForecast) March 16, 2026
VCU's only loss since January 10 was to a ranked (at the time) Saint Louis team. The South region has the toughest two-seed and the weakest top seed, but seeds 4-6 are fallible. This region could be shattered by double-digit seeds.
The Rams draw a beat-up North Carolina team. The Tar Heels have adjusted to life without Caleb Wilson, but the largest win without Wilson was a seven-point win over Virginia Tech at home.
The team struggled against Clemson, got blown out by Duke, and lost to Clemson in the opening round of the ACC Tournament to close the season. The Heels without Wilson have made this game a target of upset seekers, but what if the Rams can win more than one game?
Clemson was able to get the best of Carolina on the inside, and VCU is a guard-oriented team. This isn't the best draw in the world, but VCU is good enough defensively to give Carolina fits.
Illinois did not close the season well and is led by two freshmen. A veteran team like Penn or VCU can beat the Illini if they have an off game.
(12) McNeese
The Cowboys were a trendy pick to upset Clemson last year, and they came through. The bad news is that Quadir Copeland and Sincere Parker transferred to larger schools.
Javohn Garcia was a driving force on the team last year and was again this year. DJ Richards Jr. is the only other holdover from last year. The portal may taketh away, but McNeese found a way to make it giveth as well.
They brought in Garwey Dual from Seton Hall, Larry Johnson from Creighton, Tyshawn Archie from Tulsa, and Jacolb Fredson-Cole from Oklahoma, who helped propel this team to another Southland Conference title.
This team knows how to win. It's a rough draw against a Vanderbilt team that smacked Florida in Nashville, but if the Cowboys get out of this game, a Sweet Sixteen bid is well within reach.
(13) Troy
Nebraska's last good win was just after the new year. Wins over Rutgers, Northwestern, Penn State, Maryland, and USC padded the stats, but they lost to Purdue twice, Michigan, Illinois, UCLA, and split with Iowa after the big Michigan State win.
Troy is a dangerous team. They took out San Diego State earlier in the season and should have beaten USC. Troy is a good shooting team and can score with anyone.
Nebraska's struggles down the stretch came when the team couldn't get good shots. If that happens against Troy, the Cornhuskers are in trouble.
That said, Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game in eight tries. This is probably the best team in school history, and the draw is favorable. I think Fred Hoiberg has the Huskers ready for this one.
East Region Tournament Sleepers
(7) UCLA
The Bruins won six of the last eight games, including wins over Illinois, Nebraska, and Michigan State, to land safely in the tournament. Those are three of the four bullies in the Big Ten this year.
The run ended against Purdue in the Big Ten Semifinals, but UCLA is playing its best basketball of the season in March. That's exactly what you want as a coach.
Since Mick Cronin threw his player out, UCLA Basketball is 6-1 pic.twitter.com/RVn82KVex0
— The cfb lliason (@realfbllliason) March 14, 2026
This was the play that changed everything. During the game, UCLA coach Mick Cronin thought that his player committed a foul that had nothing to do with basketball. He wasn't having it. He doesn't want the team to play that way.
I give a lot of credit to Steven Jamerson II for not making a scene. He knew that he had done nothing wrong. After Cronin watched the replay, he apologized publicly to Jamerson. That play galvanized the team.
The only thing that makes me nervous is that UCLA has to play in the Eastern time zone. The good news is that Friday's game is an evening game (3:25 Pacific time).
(11) South Florida
The Bulls are one of the more dangerous 11-seeds in recent memory. This team scored 93 points on Alabama. They can run with anyone and are the second-best rebounding team in the country.
Metrics love USF. If the selection committee paid attention to RPI anymore, USF wouldn't be an 11-seed. They are 31 in the RPI rankings. The Bulls can run with Louisville, and are a better defensive team and better on the boards.
Louisville has been out of sorts since Mikel Brown Jr. returned. They are 4-4 with Brown back, with a win over Miami to close the regular season as their only ranked win.
That isn't the only game USF could win. It's a nightmare matchup for Michigan State. This is also the type of team that could give UConn or UCLA trouble, but a lack of size could be an issue against either of those teams.
(15) Furman
I'm not a huge fan of the draw, but UConn lost to the worst Marquette team of the last 10 years. They also lost to the worst Creighton team in 20 years at home! The point is...UConn is beatable.
Furman is seeded low because of injuries early in the season. This is the tallest team in college basketball, so they are one of the few teams that can deal with Connecticut's size up front.
The Paladins would have to hit outside shots to win this. Clemson transfer Asa Thomas is a good shooter, but he struggled in the Southern Conference Tournament. The Paladins need him back on track to make a run.
Midwest Region Tournament Sleepers
(12) Akron
Akron had by far the best NET ranking in the MAC. Yes, that's the conference that Miami of Ohio ran through. The Zips average just under 90 points per game (seventh in the country), are top-10 in FG%, and top 25 in three-point % while taking 11 per game.
If you look at double-digit seeds that pulled upsets, the teams were either really tall or could shoot the lights out. Akron is the latter.
Texas Tech is seeded based on the entirety of the season, but the team is 3-4 without JT Toppin and has lost three straight. All of those losses are to tournament teams.
The Big 12 was easily the best conference in basketball in any metric, which makes Tech look more beatable than they likely are. However, Akron is a rough draw since they are such a good shooting team. This will be one of the more fun games of the first round.
(13) Hofstra
Alabama's Aden Holloway, the Tide's second-leading scorer, has been "removed from campus" the week of the NCAA Tournament pending further investigation by the university, the team announced.
Holloway was arrested Monday after authorities allegedly found over a pound of marijuana… pic.twitter.com/IA6SWVXGMN
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) March 16, 2026
I liked Hofstra even before the news about Holloway. This is something more serious than basketball, and I hope that Holloway learns something from this.
Alabama has struggled with teams that can slow them down. Hofstra is 64th out of the 68 tournament teams in pace of play. Alabama is by far the fastest.
The Tide are 1-4 when held under 70 points this year. Hofstra allowed 66 per game. The Pride is one of the best rebounding teams in the tournament. If Hofstra can control the pace of the game, this is winnable.
If Alabama can get out and run as they would like to, this could turn into a laugher.
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