RADIO
Jason Malmanger provides expert League of Leagues (LoL) DFS advice and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel LEC LoL slates on 3/29/20. RotoBaller has you covered with the top picks and value plays to build winning LoL DFS rosters for cash games and GPPs.
Welcome to RotoBaller's league of legends DFS column. We'll be ramping up our analysis for LoL DFS this weekend, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. I'm here to help you out by breaking down these matchups and highlighting a few players to target from each one.
Today we have the final slate of games for the LCS Spring Split and a massive 15 dollar GPP on DraftKings! Here it is the granddaddy of them all LCS Pring Finale on DraftKings 100k to first. I hate how DraftKings does this. The biggest prize pools are either on opening day when you have no info on the teams or the final day. Yesterday the LEC reminded us that when playoff seedings are decided things can get WILD. Lineups lock two hours earlier today, so be aware.
I'll be bringing League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for the 3:00 PM LCS slate on Sunday, March 29th, 2020.
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League of Legends DFS Basics
Remember that the LCS (like the LEC) plays a single-game series, unlike the LPL and LCK leagues that play the best of three.
- Once a match starts, anything can happen. Usually, the better teams are very consistent. Be sure to check the player pool carefully and try to craft a roster of players who have been playing recently or do not have listed backups. Players from teams that sweep the series will receive a 20-point games-not-played bonus. If your team sweeps, the team slot gets a 15-point bonus.
- Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is very important. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day with 3-3-1 becoming more popular as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
- In Lol DFS, it is essential to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. Meaning there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs, bring down your pitcher's score.
- Along with this, another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring. Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
- Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID. Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack, that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP. Some players in some positions may stand out above the others, so consider stats like kill participation before you make your final decision.
LCS Matches
3:00 PM: Golden Guardians vs. Flyquest
Flyquest has been one of the most surprising teams this split, and in keeping with that now sit in second place in the league at 10-7. GGS are who they thought we were. Maybe I'm tilting a bit from yesterday when I started to write up GGS to beat CLG and then changed my mind mid-way through, but I can see a few avenues to win here for the Guardians.
Flyquest is the pick as they are making much better decisions late. GGS win condition lies in Hauntzer. GGS is better early and like to play through the top side. They have good herald plays and are likely to be up gold at the 15-minute mark. Especially since I think this is an attractive fantasy matchup today, both sides have merit for me on DraftKings.
Hauntzer - GGS - TOP ($5,200)
As I said earlier, GGS are at their best when playing through the top side early. Hauntzer and Closer combine for the most first bloods on the team. GGS herald percentage is at 55% Flyquest do NOT prioritize this objective at all. GGS will look to play top get the herald. If they convert that first blood top into a herald and first plate gold for Hauntzer, he can have a similar game to yesterday when he went off on Aatrox.
Closer - GGS - JNG ($5,600)
The Turkish import leads the team in KP% with 74.4. Golden Guardians lead Flyquest by a healthy margin in both first blood percentage and first turret percentage. Again the play through the top side will be key. GGS will look to continue those trends and snowball the game from there. I expect continued priority on the Jarvan or Sejuani picks for Closer. The engagement and safety offered by both champions will facilitate his playmaking.
Power of Evil - FLY - MID ($8,200)
One of Flyquest's most significant win conditions all season has been POE. He is the top mid-laner in the league in cs post 15 minutes. Other teams, you often see the bot lane duo swap mid to continue to farm up, but POE is more likely to extend the laning phase so that he can continue to get fed. It's strange to me that they don't try to assist him more early because teams that accentuate their advantage tend to do better. POE's strength does allow for FLY to play around the map in other ways. They know they can leave him to his own devices, and he will still win while they get an advantage elsewhere.
Santorin - FLY - JNG ($7,400)
Santorin has been another big key to victory for his team this split. He leads this team in kill participation with 75.1% He will need to match Closer's early aggression to keep GGS from getting too far ahead early. His superior vision control give FLY the advantage later in the game when they begin to hunt for broader objectives like baron or drakes.
4:00 PM: Dignitas vs. Team Solo Mid
After dropping yesterday's game to 100T TSM suddenly find themselves in real danger of falling into the losers' bracket side of the playoffs. Dignitas, on the other hand, kept their dreams alive with their crazy marathon win over IMT. TSM has the advantage early in this game as they are the league leaders in first blood %. They also have a slight lead late due to better baron takes and vision control.
This game is also reasonably friendly from a fantasy standpoint. TSM has been popular in the last two weeks, and showing up with disappointing losses in each could lead to some depressed ownership. Even with TSM having more decided advantages, I think Dignitas are worth some shares today. As we all saw yesterday, they are a stubborn team that just sort of hangs in matches and can find a way to win. Final call I think TSM finds the win here.
Akkadian - DIG - JNG ($6,000)
Remember when Akkadian was the answer for TSM in the jungle, it seems like so long ago. It was only 2019 when he was on this TSM roster. So I think we've got ourselves a charming little narrative there. Recently promoted to the main squad from the academy roster Akkadian excels at powerful carry champions. Dig had some problems adjusting to this early, but have gotten better in recent weeks. Eschewing Rek'sai and Sedjuani for the likes of Olaf, Pantheon, and Gragas, the results have followed. Since joining the main squad he leads the LCS in kill share for junglers.
Froggen - DIG - MID ($6,800)
Picking a mid into Bjergsen would have been blasphemy only a year or two gone, but this season Froggen is having a bigger impact on his team than even the Bjerger King. He leads the way, with 76.2% kill participation. He has advantages over Bjerg in his creep score, damage output, gold share, and kill share. They are not great and wide margins, but I would argue that Froggen is more important to his team's wins than Bjerg is to his.
Broken Blade - TSM - TOP ($7,200)
In other blasphemous news Broken Blade is more critical to his team than Huni is to DIG. He is second on the team in first blood percentage, and second in the league in KP% for top-laners with 68.3% Huni leads in creep score, but with the first blood focus, BB leads in gold differential at 15 minutes. He is also outputting more damage with less economy after the crucial fifteen-minute mark. TSM just needs to ban rumble and let nature take its course.
Biofrost - TSM - SUP ($6,000)
I think we can all get on board with the idea of Aphromoo being done, but this pick is more about Bio being good than Aphro being bad. Bio leads the team in KP%. He has been at his best on the Rakan, not exactly a meta pick at the moment he is 5-0 on the champion. Other hard engage, or hook supports have been his bread and butter this year. If TSM can enable Bio to play make with one of those champs, they have a much better chance to pull this out.
5:00 PM: Team Liquid vs. Cloud 9
C9 remains a cut above all others in the LCS. I always rant on about the best of one format and my distaste for it. One of the biggest reasons I don't like it is that too many teams play so defensively, i.e., they play not to lose. C9, much like their European counterparts in G2 are one of the few western teams that play to win the game. They are proactive, often making positive responses around the map so that even when they lose, they answer back.
TL has had its worst split in recent memory, and people will be quick to jump on Doublelift or Broxah for someone to blame. There are a lot of factors that have led to TL's disappointing split. I haven't been impressed with their understanding of the metagame and their drafts all split. I think that C9 handle them today.
In the first big DraftKings tournament of the split way back in January (I think it was 5k to first and that was honestly impressive back then), I made the mistake of having too much of the C9/TL matchup. I will not do the same today. The public will be all up in C9's business as they have been banking with C9 stacks for the last two weeks. That's not wrong either; its smart, c9 are the only GOOD team in this region. To me, though, this is a game that will be over-owned and underscore, no thanks.
6:00 PM: Immortals vs. Evil Geniuses
Immortals surprised me yesterday by finding a way to lose to DIG. Hopefully, they learned a vital lesson - ban Aphelios! Another matchup in contrasting styles. Yesterday's performance aside, Immortals are the better late game team here. Evil Geniuses are the better early game team coming in top three in the league in first blood %, first turret %, and herald %. Immortals close the gap with decent baron numbers and superior vision control.
This matchup provides some sneaky fantasy upside. I Immortals to win in a bit of an upset. As long as they play to their strengths and draft for the safety of scaling, I think they win. The DFS play is to hedge this matchup and play a bit of both. If EG gets up early and can snowball, they could have a nice day.
Jizuke - EG - MID ($7,200)
Often the beneficiary of the early game focus for Evil Geniuses Jizuke leads the team in first blood percentage. The Italian stallion also benefits from a good matchup with Eika. He should be able to control his lane opponent, especially with his jungler looking his way early. This is one of the better matchups for the side of EG, and I look for them to exploit it.
Xmithie - IMT - JNG ($5,000)
Immortals have been in a bit of a slide towards the end of this split. It still seems pretty disrespectful of DraftKings to have Xmithie as the lowest priced jungler on the slate. With nearly 72% KP and a decided advantage over Sven in the vision game Xmithie is one of the most important parts of IMT.
Apollo - IMT - ADC ($6,400)
As good as Bang has been for the EGs all split, I think since the addition of Apollo, he has been every bit as important to the side of IMT. Its a smaller sample size to be sure, but he leads his lane opponent with 77.4% KP. He also has an unheard of 47% kill share. That means he's bagging nearly HALF of his team's total kills. Talk about a fantasy goldmine.
7:00 PM: 100 Thieves vs. Counter Logic Gaming
One of the more clearcut games of the day. 100T should take this one down easily. They beat CLG in the first round robin handily and will look to duplicate that today. I will be fading the CLG side today, but they could be that 1% play that Awesemo is always talking about. I'll stick with the Thieves here in an up-tempo match against an inferior team. The only downside I can foresee is a super clean victory for 100T, which could cost them fantasy goodness.
Summday - TOP ($7,000)
I spent all of last year screaming into the void trying to get Summday off the Academy roster and on to the main. I knew this year, my patience would be rewarded, and it has. 100T added front office and coaching talent in the offseason. This has helped them out immensely during the split. Summday himself is a monster and can turn any game on its head with a huge outplay. He likely won't be called on to do that today. He has been crushing on Ornn and Aatrox lately, but I would love to see his signature Gang Plank today.
Meteos - JNG ($7,000)
Wiggly has been a good little farmer for the side of CLG, but Meteos's ability to influence his lanes and provide vision will be a difference-maker. 65.5% kill participation, and a preference for the Trundle pick provides safety. Meteos has settled into this roster very nicely.
Codysun - ADC ($7,600)
The ADC on a team I expect to win big is kind of a no brainer right. I just wanted to take a minute to talk about the heater Cody is on to close the split and his DK price, which seems too cheap to me. The fifth highest priced ADC on DraftKings for a guy averaging 33.35 DK points over his last six wins. I'll take that all day.
Whether you're going for the 100k up top, or rolling your quarters for something to do while conventional sports are on break, we here at RotoBaller have got you covered. Check back throughout the week as we'll publish more Esports League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks at RotoBaller.
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