X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Late-Round Lottery Tickets: Undervalued Veterans

Frank Dyevoich analyzes veteran players available late in fantasy football drafts who could pay off in a big way at their current late-round ADP as undervalued sleepers.

In the previous article focusing on late-round gems worth uncovering, we looked at rookies and young players with expanding roles for 2020. This time, we'll pivot to the veterans who are being overlooked or undervalued for various reasons. I refer to these players as lotto tickets.

The beauty of taking such players late in the draft is that if they do not pan out, it did not cost much to draft them and they can easily be cut in exchange for a waiver wire pick. However, if they do pan out, you acquired a weekly starter for pennies on the dollar. Last year, two lottery ticket selections that paid off tremendously were Washington Football Team wide receiver Terry McLaurin (2019 ADP outside top-300) and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller (2019 ADP TE22). Both of these players probably went undrafted or were taken with the last pick by owners last season, and McLaurin finished as WR29 and Waller as TE2.

Fantasy managers could have spent a bunch of their free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB) to acquire these studs, or they could have spent nothing and drafted them with their last pick. Be the latter.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Finding a Golden Ticket

There are several factors to look for when trying to find successful lottery tickets. I've previously discussed players in a new situation and rookies that could have a starting role early on.

The next scenario to look for in selecting lottery tickets is players returning from an injury that the fantasy community has forgotten about. While Allen Robinson II was not a lottery ticket pick, he is the perfect example of this situation (ADP WR32, WR7 finish), two years removed from ACL surgery. This also applied to Buffalo Bills wide receiver John Brown (ADP WR55, WR22 finish).

The last scenario to look for is players who have incredible talent but have been a disappointment thus far in their career. The prime example of this is Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker (ADP WR61, WR11 finish). Parker was drafted 14th overall by the Dolphins in 2015 and never lived up to his potential. Granted, Adam Gase is probably responsible for most of it, but Parker never translated to the football field after being the most impressive player in training camp for four years in a row. However, in 2020 he got a new head coach and a gunslinger quarterback to get him the rock, and he reclaimed his college form finishing as the WR2 over the final eight games of the season.

So who is going to be this year's Parker?

 

Players Returning From Injury

Cam Newton (QB, NE)

Cam Newton has finished as a top-eight quarterback or better in fantasy points per game in seven of his first eight seasons. Now, he has the privilege of working under the greatest head coach of all-time in Bill Belichick, and one of the most creative play-callers in the league in Josh McDaniels.

In the post-Tom Brady era, the Patriots are likely going to become a run-first offense with Newton under center. After all, the team used its franchise tag on guard Joe Thuney and spent two third-round picks on tight ends. All signs point to a heavy rushing attack in New England, and Newton should be one of the main beneficiaries. He has plenty of weapons in Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, Mohammed Sanu, and James White out of the backfield, and his rushing upside will provide his owners with a three-to-four point rushing floor each week.

He is a ridiculous value right now with an ADP of QB28, but he possesses top-five potential. If fantasy owners wait on a quarterback in their draft, Newton has the most upside by far, and he has a gigantic chip on his shoulder after the Carolina Panthers decided to move on. He has something to prove, and that is going to mean great things for his fantasy owners.

Jerick McKinnon (RB, SF)

Jerick McKinnon is one of the most gifted athletes to step foot on a football field this century. The only problem is that he has not played a single snap of regular season football for the 49ers in his two years with the team.

Stats from playerprofiler.com

Head coach Kyle Shanahan is a wizard when it comes to designing run plays, and he chose McKinnon to be an integral part of his scheme when McKinnon signed a contract for four years worth up to $36.9M in 2018. Now he is finally healthy, and the former pass-catching running back Matt Breida has signed with the Miami Dolphins, so the door for McKinnon to contribute is wide open.

If anyone can take advantage of McKinnon's elite speed and athleticism, it is Shanahan. McKinnon is currently being drafted as RB70 in ADP, but he possesses top-36 upside in PPR leagues if he were to play a full 16 games.

Chris Herndon (TE, NYJ)

New York Jets tight end Chris Herndon was drafted as one of the most popular sleepers heading into 2019, but his season was lost due to suspension and injury. As a result, he has slipped through the cracks of fantasy drafts this summer and has mostly been forgotten about. However, as a rookie, Herndon posted an impressive 502 yards and four touchdowns on only 39 receptions (12.9 yards per reception) and showed to have nice chemistry with quarterback Sam Darnold. Head coach Adam Gase loves Herndon and has previously referred to him as a unicorn, and the Jets are desperate for playmakers, so a breakout from Herndon seems to make sense.

His ADP currently sits at TE22, but he could easily finish inside the top-10 if he stays healthy for 16 games. He is the perfect lottery ticket for owners who punt on a tight end in their drafts, or those who are looking for the next Darren Waller.

 

Forgotten Studs

Corey Davis (WR, TEN)

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis is the most likely candidate to be this year's DeVante Parker. He was an absolute stud at Western Michigan and was drafted fifth overall in 2017, but he has failed to live up to expectations so far in his NFL career. In fact, he has been downright terrible except for a handful of big games.

Davis is 6'3" and built like a prototypical WR1, and he has all the skills to dominate in the NFL. This year, he will finally have some adequate quarterback play for the first time in his career. Ryan Tannehill is leaps and bounds ahead of Marcus Mariota as a passer, and the breakout of A.J. Brown should have defenses focused on him, leaving Davis to feast on the defense's second-best cornerback. If that wasn't enough, it is a contract year for Davis so he has all the motivation he needs to go out and put up his best season as a pro.

His ADP is WR78 so he can be drafted with your last pick, and if he does not produce early then owners can cut him without having given up any draft capital to see if he finally hits this year.

O.J. Howard (TE, TB)

Stats provided by Playerprofiler.com

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard is a freak of nature. He is 6'6" and 251 lbs, and he runs a 4.51 40-yard dash (97th percentile). He was the undisputed TE1 coming out of the 2017 draft class, and the Bucs took him with the 19th pick. Until last season, Howard was dominant whenever he was targeted. He finished fifth in PPR points per game (12.1) in 2018 despite only playing in 10 games, and graded out higher than Travis Kelce per Pro Football Focus.

He was an undisputed top-five fantasy tight end heading into the 2019 season, but he was a total dumpster fire and finished as the TE28. As a result, his ADP heading into 2020 is a juicy TE24. He has the size and the talent to dominate opposing linebackers and defensive backs, and now he has Tom Brady throwing him the ball, who some might say has had some success throwing to his tight ends in the past. The risk is virtually nothing, but the reward could be substantial.

 

Depth Chart Issues

Damien Harris (RB, NE)

New England Patriots running back Damien Harris was drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft, one year after the team spent a first-round pick on Sony Michel. The pick suggests that the Pats are not comfortable with Michel as it's featured running back of the future, and Michel's performance thus far seems to justify those concerns.

Harris is a big-bodied, one-cut, downhill runner with a knack for chunk plays and tough yards. He was part of an all-star backfield at Alabama, and Harris still managed to churn out two 1,000-yard seasons and averaged 6.7 yards per carry over his last three seasons. The Patriots have committed to a run-first offense evidenced by the team's placement of its franchise tag on guard Joe Thuney, and the signing of Cam Newton at quarterback. The Pats also signed Lamar Miller once it came out that Michel might miss the first six weeks of the season due to his foot surgery back in May, but Miller has not stepped foot on a field in over a year.

It is a real possibility that Harris is the best running back for the Patriots this season, and his ADP currently sits at an insanely low RB60, so fantasy owners would be wise to throw a dart on him at the end of their drafts. Click here for an in-depth analysis of Harris.

DeAndre Washington (RB, KC)

DeAndre Washington has always played a reserve role on offense, and this year will be no different, but now he's on the high flying Kansas City Chiefs, and he has a history with the team's half-billion-dollar quarterback. Running back Damien Williams has opted out of the 2020 season which has left rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrell Williams, Darwin Thompson, and Washington as the Chief's entire backfield. Edwards-Helaire should handle the bulk of the touches, but he is especially poor at pass protection, an area where Washington excels. Edwards-Helaire will not see much time on third-downs if he can't protect Patrick Mahomes, so it is a real possibility that Washington sees meaningful snaps this season.

He has also shown that he can produce when given opportunities, scoring at least 18 PPR points in each of his three starts last season in place of an injured Josh Jacobs. If that wasn't enough, he played with Mahomes at Texas Tech so there is already familiarity between the two. It is a long shot that Washington becomes a valuable fantasy asset this season, but with an ADP of RB76, he costs less than the lint in your pocket, and the path to relevance is certainly there.

James Washington (WR, PIT)

James Washington led the Pittsburgh Steelers in receiving yards last season and no one is talking about it. JuJu Smith-Schuster is still being drafted in the third round, and Diontae Johnson is a favorite mid-round target for a ton of fantasy owners, but Washington sits alone way down at WR74 in ADP. No one seems to remember that he routinely made difficult contested catches (1.2 yards of target separation), averaged 16.7 yards per reception, and did so with Mason Rudolph and a guy named Duck as his quarterbacks.

Washington should be quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's favorite downfield target, and his athleticism and ball skills make him a viable third-year breakout candidate. drafting guys like Washington with one of your last picks is a championship-winning move.

Randall Cobb (WR, HOU)

Houston Texans wide receiver Randall Cobb could be a major part of the offense this season for the simple reason that the team does not have any alpha receivers on its roster. Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller IV, and Kenny Stills are basically the same receivers, specializing in speed and deep routes, and there is not a viable tight end on the roster worthy of a heavy target volume, which leaves Cobb all alone in the middle of the field to soak up targets. 100 targets and 70 receptions are well within his range of outcomes, and there is no player better suited to be quarterback Deshaun Watson's safety blanket this season.

Watson himself knows his other three receivers are one-trick ponies, and if you read between the lines you will see a ton of mid-level targets for Cobb because go-routes don't always work. Cobb's ADP is WR72, but he possesses top-30 upside in PPR leagues for the low low price of absolutely nothing.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL

Preston Smith Signs With the Washington Commanders
New York Knicks

Trey Jemison III Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP