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Welcome back to another article in our fantasy football ADP draft risers and fallers – today we'll be looking at running back fallers. I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three fallers at running back.
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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Fallers
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
You don't need to be a genius to see what's going on here. The ADP fall is massive, but so were the ominous predictions made by HC John Harbaugh at the turn of July and into August: Edwards most probably will not be ready for the Ravens' Week 1 game against the New York Jets.
Looking at Baltimore's depth chart for the running back position is like looking straight into the eyes of Satan. J.K. Dobbins is questionable, and so is free-agency-signee Mike Davis while RB2 Edwards is still sitting on the PUP list. I mean, what's to like about that!?
Already a low-priced option in the 200th+ pick range, Edwards should sadly stay there if not lower and considered just an eventual WW addition/bargain for free. Even in the largest of possible projecting efforts, PFF has Edwards hitting just 90.0 PPR points over the full 2022 season if he were to appear in all games. That's obviously assuming Dobbins would take on RB1 duties and get a huge pie, but who knows if that'd be the case or not.
Given what we know, the fact that any of the three players in the Ravens' backfield could get a lot of opportunities on a weekly (random) basis, and the iffy health of all of them, I wouldn't dare touch any player pertaining to this triumvirate this season. Let other GMs take the risks and congratulate them if they hit. Spoiler: don't worry too much, you won't be doing that.
Ronald Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
There is this thing in the projections published by PFF in which they sometimes avoid including some players that are just not going to be relevant. Well, somehow, the Chiefs have managed to slide five rushers into PFF's sheet, and perhaps most worryingly of all, Ronald Jones has the fourth-worst projection of them. Ugh. Now you get that ADP tank.
Jones should still be the RB3 of the Chiefs entering 2022, only behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. Does that guarantee any sort of upside? Far from it, I'm afraid to report. And that, again, is assuming he can retain that RB3 role with the hyped rookie Isiah Pacheco getting pushed higher and higher by the day.
(I know this is a section about RoJo, but have you seen Pacheco's underlying numbers and NFL Combine metrics? He ranks in the 74th percentile in Draft Age but a freakish 89th in Breakout Age. He posted 93rd+ Pct. marks in the 40-Yard Dash and the Bench Press drills, and his SPARQ-X, Athleticism Score, and Speed Score all rank inside the 96th percentile at the very least. He's hella tiny (5' 10") but numbers tell us the sooner he gets to the field to get some serious reps, the better for all parties having anything to do with this man.)
Anyway, and getting back to Jones, you should fade it at his current ADP and help that sinking trade sink even further. Jones was already in a precarious position at the start of August, but he's now on an even worse one as part of the called "roster bubble." In other words: he might even get cut or deactivated to make room for the likes of Pacheco or Derrick Gore when it comes to the backup-RB roles. No more explanations are needed.
Mark Ingram II, New Orleans Saints
Reporting to the Mark Ingram The Second Camp myself first thing in the morning, sir! Until a few days ago, though, but not anymore (not at least at a top price). I have spent the summer preaching the MI2 gospel to all of you out there wanting (and not) to hear it, but the hammer dropped when it was known that Alvin Kamara's pending suspension will be delayed for a few months and maybe pushed into next season.
As late as the last week of July, we were blessed with the "no timetable for a suspension decision" headline, yet barely a week later, the bomb exploded with the ultimate verdict (for now): Kamara's case was delayed 60 days to allow lawyers more time to review it. So there you have it. No decision until Oct. 1 at the very least, and then some more time for the NFL to drop a suspension if that ends being the case at all. Or, in a potential scenario, avoidance of such suspension or a push of it all the way to the 2023 campaign.
Nothing is written here, so the only thing we as fantasy GMs can do is just wait. The only problem is, you know, that our leagues start on Week 1 and not on Oct. 1, or later this season, or whatever. So a decision must be made on drafts. That decision, to me, and if you're managing a re-draft/one-year team, is to avoid Kamara/Ingram at their current prices.
Ingram's ADP is tanking to levels at which I'd maybe consider throwing a last-round dart if you can/want because at the end of the day he should still be a viable RB3/Flex option in most regular leagues out there as one of the most solid NFL backup rushers.
Kamara's ADP of 21.5 could definitely be a freaking bargain (in fact, he's the RB13 off the board carrying an RB4 projection!) but the risk is high that he will miss games, maybe even half of the season... which would turn him into the RB32 by the simple calculation of splitting his total projected PPR in half.
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