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What was originally conceived as a Deshaun Watson vs. Aaron Rodgers matchup for two playoff-caliber teams will look wildly different for Thursday Night Football in Week 17. Instead, our fantasy football championship week will start with a Joe Flacco revenge game as the New York Jets visit the Cleveland Browns.
Cleveland will be in the AFC playoffs, and the Jets will not, but this game should be defined by how well each defense can perform. Will the ferocious Cleveland pass rush allow Breece Hall or Garrett Wilson to give fantasy managers anything? Will the Jets' defensive line be able to attack Flacco and prevent him from bombing away again?
Thank you for checking out our Thursday Night Football analysis all year long. This is the last Thursday Night Football game of the year, and we look forward to covering these games again in 2024! Let's dive into this 17th and final Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season.
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New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns - 8:15 PM ET
Be sure to also check out our Jets vs. Browns NFL Actives/Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable injuries:
- Israel Abanikanda (RB, NYJ) - Active
- Jeremy Ruckert (TE, NYJ) - OUT
- Allen Lazard (WR, NYJ) - OUT
- Trevor Siemian (QB, NYJ) - Active
- Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ) - OUT
- Greg Zuerlein (K, NYJ) - Active
- Amari Cooper (WR, CLE) - OUT
- Marquise Goodwin (WR, CLE) - Active
- Dustin Hopkins (K, CLE) - OUT
Jets at Browns Matchup Breakdown
This matchup starts with how well both defenses have played at times during this 2023 season. Both Cleveland and New York rank top three in opponents' yards per pass attempt and top-12 in yards per rush attempt. In fact, over the past three weeks, no other team has been better at containing the passing game than these two.
However, despite all the question marks that have come with the Browns signing Joe Flacco, he has evaded Father Time and is the QB3 in total fantasy points over the last four weeks. He just helped Amari Cooper reach a record-breaking number of passing yards in Week 16 and looks like he wants to go down throwing if this is the last few weeks of his NFL career. Flacco won't have Cooper in this game, so that might mean more on the ground for Cleveland.
Meanwhile, the Jets have were forced to rely on Trevor Siemian last week after they went back to Zach Wilson in Week 15 but he suffered a concussion. Siemian was able to avoid any sacks last week, but had his standard two turnovers. This Cleveland defense will provide a much tougher test for New York, a major factor in the low 35 implied point total.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
At 30.6%, you can't deny Wilson's elite target share on this Jets team. The only problem, of course, is the quality of the targets he sees on a week-to-week basis. Wilson was able to turn 15 targets into nine catches for 76 yards last week, which is becoming a pretty standard stat line for him. He is still putting up borderline WR1/2 value thanks to volume, and he will need to do it again as the Jets are more than a touchdown underdog against Cleveland. The matchup is not ideal considering the Browns allow the fewest passing yards per game to teams this year, but we can certainly count on most of the passing production flowing through Wilson.
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
UPDATE: Amari Cooper has been ruled OUT for Thursday Night Football, remove him from your lineups. Joe Flacco gets a downgrade tonight and Elijah Moore & David Njoku should be upgraded.
Amari Cooper popped up on the injury report after his otherworldly performance against Houston last week, but it is listed as "not injury related, resting player, Heel." That translates into "he is playing so we will just be extra cautious with him on a short week." Cooper now leads the league in air yards after 285 last week, and has over 1,200 receiving yards on the season. He has a 29% target share over the last three games and Flacco is averaging 44 pass attempts in that time. The Jets have a tendency to get burned by deep threats and that's exactly what Cooper has been the last three games.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
It's a really simple equation for Njoku managers this week. Since Joe Flacco has been in the lineup, Njoku is the number one tight end in fantasy football. Don't overthink it. He has a 24% target share over the last three weeks and double digit points in three straight. With Cooper out tonight, this could be an absolute smash spot with Flacco targeting Njoku.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Breece Hall probably propelled many fantasy lineups to the championship last week against the Commanders, but the question now is can he repeat that dominant performance against a much tougher defensive opponent? Cleveland is top-10 in fewest rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards allowed to running backs this season. It all adds up to just the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to the position and a question mark for Breece Hall managers. He is certainly still in the RB2 conversation this week and will have plenty of volume again (32 touches last week). But he will need to likely overcome inefficiency with volume in this game.
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
If this game script goes as the oddsmakers think it will, Jerome Ford will matter in this game. With Cleveland favored by more than a touchdown, Ford could get a lot of run in the second half if the Browns pull away. Even with Flacco slinging it all over the field since he arrived, Ford has at least 12 touches in three straight games and he has 11 catches over the last three games as well. I prefer Ford as an RB2/Flex play this week.
Elijah Moore (WR, CLE)
UPDATE: With Cooper out, Moore gets an upgrade and should see additional targets in this game. He is now in the WR3/Flex conversation for fantasy lineups.
Even after a dominant performance from Amari Cooper, the memories of Elijah Moore in Week 13 still linger in our memories. Elijah Moore, of course, was Flacco's teammate on the Jets before both were jettisoned, so there may be a little added edge of the two wanting to connect this week. Moore does have an 18% target share on the season, but hasn't come close to matching his 12 targets from Week 13 over the last three weeks. But Sauce Gardner is likely to be on Cooper, freeing Moore up with an easier matchup.
Joe Flacco (QB, CLE)
This will be an interesting matchup this week because the Jets (at 168 yards per game) allow the second-fewest yards to opponents this year, trailing only Cleveland. Compare that to three straight games of at least 311 passing yards for Flacco and we have ourselves a conundrum here. I look at two of Flacco's three dominant games and they have come against Houston and Jacksonville, two pass-friendly defenses. I cannot recommend Joe Flacco as a top-eight quarterback this week, but I can see the Browns letting him throw another 40 or more times, which helps him get to the QB12-14 range. With both running backs healthy for Cleveland, Flacco's prospects take a bit of a hit.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Trevor Siemian (QB, NYJ)
I doubt anyone is considering starting Siemian in this horrific matchup for him, especially considering how turnover-prone he has been. But it's not just the turnovers that are a concern for the Jets. Can they get anything going against a defensive line that is fourth in the NFL in sack rate this year (8.7%)?
Cedric Tillman (WR, CLE)
With how much Joe Flacco is throwing the ball and how effective and efficient he has been with three other receivers, it's tempting to think perhaps one of these weeks could be the Cedric Tillman week. But Tillman hasn't finished higher than WR42 this season and does not have a touchdown.
Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)
Tyler Conklin is a touchdown-or-bust tight end who hasn't actually scored a touchdown this season. Conklin has one half-PPR finish higher than TE12 and that was in Week 10 when he got an abnormally high seven targets.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
The only games Kareem Hunt has finished as a top-12 running back this year were in Weeks 6 and 7 after the Nick Chubb injury, and before the team decided to unleash Jerome Ford as the main back. Since then, Hunt has not reached 10 half-PPR points in any games despite having four touchdowns since Week 9. Hunt is a desperation Flex play in deep leagues if you're hunting a touchdown, but he has touched the ball less than 10 times in three of his last five games.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: CLE -7.5, Total: 35
Over the last six weeks, competent quarterbacks facing the Jets (not you, Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder!) have actually found a lot of success. Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and even Jacoby Brissett have put up numbers against what used to be a stout pass defense.
The question is, then, how do you classify Joe Flacco? Especially without Amari Cooper? The evidence over the last four weeks tells us he has a deep camaraderie with his receivers and is not going to be afraid to throw a ton (almost 65% the last three games). Add in the revenge narrative and the Browns trying to lock in the fifth seed and this strikes me as a game the Browns can win but it might be closer now that Cooper is sitting.
Picks: NYJ +7.5, OVER
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